Draws and Fades: Assessing TOUR Championship prop bet options with Scottie Scheffler in command at East Lake

ATLANTA – Scottie Scheffler bobbled for exactly one hole.

Yes, there’s plenty of golf still to be played at East Lake Golf Club before one of 30 participants at the TOUR Championship gets their hands on the FedExCup. But Scheffler’s momentary lapse, where his opening bogey combined with Xander Schauffele’s birdie erased Scheffler’s two-shot cushion instantly, lasted about 15 minutes.

From there it was business as usual for Scheffler, who didn’t drop a shot the rest of the way on the newly restored layout en route to a 6-under 65 that served as the low round of the day (even without FedExCup Starting Strokes) and gave him a seven-shot cushion heading into the second round.

Scheffler did a lot of Scheffler things, leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and offering crisp iron approaches for much of the day. Oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook now have him as a whopping -350 favorite to win the FedExCup, meaning you have to lay $3.50 for every dollar you hope to win – and honestly, that feels about right.

Updated odds to win the TOUR Championship (via BetMGM)

• -350: Scottie Scheffler (-16)
• +800: Xander Schauffele (-9)
• +2000: Collin Morikawa (-9)
• +3300: Hideki Matsuyama (-8), Sam Burns (-8)
• +4000: Wyndham Clark (-8)
• +5000: Keegan Bradley (-8), Patrick Cantlay (-6), Rory McIlroy (-6)
• +6600: Adam Scott (-8), Ludvig Åberg (-5)

From this point, there’s an overwhelming likelihood that Scheffler gets the job done. Not only has he been the best player all season, but he also has recent history to keep his edge sharp: it was just two years ago that he led by five after one round and ultimately coughed up a six-shot advantage to Rory McIlroy on the final day. My take is that the sequence of events from two years ago is more likely to keep his eye on the prize than to serve as potential scar tissue over the weekend.

But if you’re looking for a flier in the outright market, you could do worse than Collin Morikawa (+2000). Yes, I’m doubling down on my pre-tournament pick, who teed off at +3000 and spun together a 5-under 66 that included six straight birdies – and somehow lost ground to Scheffler on the leaderboard. He’ll need more form like he flashed Thursday (and last year when he opened 61-64), but if Scheffler falters Morikawa could be worth a look.

If you’re looking to add to your card mid-tournament, though, I’d be steering toward markets that take focus on another player – or Scheffler out of the equation entirely.

Sam Burns (+850) to win (without Scottie Scheffler)

Just take Scheffler out of the mix. Yes, Morikawa is in the mix here as well, priced at +550 at FanDuel, but I’ll take a little higher price on Burns who was solid in his opening round and sits just one shot behind Morikawa at 8-under. Essentially he’s one shot behind the co-leaders in this market, Morikawa and Schauffele, since Scheffler’s performance and finish are factored out entirely.

Burns has been red-hot through the Playoffs, entering the week with a pair of top-5 finishes, and he got it done Thursday with a 4-under 67 despite losing strokes off the tee. Burns birdied five holes on the back nine and is likely to improve with the driver tomorrow, so expect more rounds in the 60s from the Louisianan who loves playing on Bermuda grass.

Justin Thomas (+170) Top-10 finish

Thomas just raced past half the field, firing a 5-under 66 from the first tee time to climb into a T14 position. There’s more work to be done, but he spoke after the round about the tendency to feel like there’s not much to gain if he had played his first 11 or 12 holes poorly from a trailing position. That’s not the case, and now Thomas can lock in on a lucrative leaderboard climb.

While he’s a deserved longshot to reach the heights of Scheffler, who’s still 11 shots clear of Thomas’ 5-under position, getting inside the top 10 (with ties paying in full) seems like a viable target for the +170 price at DraftKings.

September is Responsible Gaming Education Month. For more information on how to put together your sports betting game plan, visit haveagameplan.org/pgatour.