Draws and Fades: Ranking six players who can still win BMW Championship

We should have known it would be a wild day at the BMW Championship based on the very first shot from the overnight leader.

Adam Scott put a tee in the ground at Castle Pines Golf Club with a three-shot lead and promptly launched his first tee shot out of bounds, one of two instances Saturday where he would be hitting three from the tee. He played the first four holes in 4 over, opening the door to the chase pack and sparking a turbulent stroll through the Colorado mountains where Ludvig Åberg and Keegan Bradley also built multi-shot leads at one point.

When 54 holes were in the books it was Bradley back out in front, having holed a 9-foot birdie putt on No. 18 to move one clear of Scott and two ahead of Swedes Åberg and Alex Noren. There are now six players within five shots of the lead, with major champions Xander Schauffele and Wyndham Clark representing the back of the chase pack.

Updated odds to win BMW Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• +275: Keegan Bradley (-12)
• +333: Adam Scott (-11), Ludvig Åberg (-10)
• +600: Alex Noren (-10)
• +800: Xander Schauffele (-7)
• +1800: Wyndham Clark (-7)

It’s a six-man race in the eyes of oddsmakers, with no one else shorter than +6000 heading into the final round outside Denver. While wild things can happen among the field that’s now down to 48 players following the withdrawal of Robert MacIntyre, the overwhelming likelihood is that the winner comes from the six names above.

So mixing prognostication with assessing betting value, let’s rank the six contenders – in terms of who is most likely to win, and where your overnight money should go.

Ludvig Åberg (+333)

I drew Åberg last night at +350, expecting him to play his way into the final pairing with his aggressive approach. While he didn’t quite make the final tee time, I still think the young Swede is the most likely to take down the trophy.

Åberg has made 19 birdies and two eagles across 54 holes, a potent combo that would’ve put him miles ahead in the Stableford scoring system employed by the old International. He has struggled to keep the bogeys off the card but continues to thrive in all aspects of the game.

He’ll fire at pins one more day, and he’ll make his fair share of birdies. I don’t think he’ll blink if he gets a shot to win down the stretch, particularly with the two reachable par-5s in Nos. 14 and 17.

Xander Schauffele (+800)

The one person who was licking his chops down the stretch as the leaders faltered was Schauffele, who got into the house at 7 under after a 67 and then watched the leaders come back toward him. After Scott held the 36-hole mark at 13 under, Schauffele likely didn’t think 7 under would give him a realistic chance when he signed his card. But now he’s T5 and only five shots back, a deficit that he can certainly overcome with a final round like he spun together at Valhalla or Royal Troon.

Schauffele is still the only player that can supplant Scottie Scheffler (T35) for the top seed next week, and that might be all the motivation he needs to go for broke in an effort to chase down Bradley & Co. He was atrocious with his irons on Friday but has been solid in the other two rounds. One thing is for certain, none of the players ahead of him want to see his name creeping up the leaderboard heading toward the back nine.

Keegan Bradley (+275)

This has been an impressive performance by the man who was the last to make the 50-man field after a rough outing last week in Memphis. Bradley has won this tournament before, outlasting Justin Rose at Aronimink back in 2018, and he has steadied the ship after falling off the pace during the second round.

The question for me is, how will Bradley’s putter perform? It was a rollercoaster of a back nine, as Bradley’s last par of the day came on No. 10. He’s 19th in SG: Putting, which seems solid on the surface but is the worst putt ranking of anyone at 6 under or better. He’ll inevitably face some midrange must-makes on Sunday, and how his putter performs could make the difference.

Adam Scott (+333)

Scott’s price has nearly doubled, as he went from three shots clear to one shot back. All is not lost despite a 2-over 74 that included OB bogeys on Nos. 1 and 14 and a front-nine 40 that seemed to sink his battleship.

At age 44 Scott is the oldest player in the field, and his focus Sunday will shift to the driver. He’s seventh or better in the other three major Strokes Gained categories but ranks 41st out of 48 off the tee. A big piece of that was the wayward drives Saturday that sailed outside the OB stakes, but Scott can ill afford similar miscues Sunday if he hopes to keep pace.

Alex Noren (+600)

Noren has been the quiet man on the leaderboard, largely overshadowed by his countryman Åberg before closing with three straight birdies to move within two of the lead. But I have my doubts about whether this will be the site of his long-awaited maiden PGA TOUR victory, and I’m concerned by his start Saturday in which he played his first seven holes in 3 over.

Noren leads the field in putting but has middling stats elsewhere. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where he can putt his way to victory on what has amounted to a ball-striking venue.

Wyndham Clark (+1600)

The oddsmakers are telling you something by pricing Clark at more than double Schauffele (+700) while they start as equals at 7 under. Clark is the clear crowd favorite this week, playing for the first time on TOUR in his native Colorado, but with that scene comes increased expectations. He got into the mix with an eagle on No. 17 that thrilled the crowds, and the former U.S. Open champ leads the field in SG: Off the Tee. But his iron play has been lackluster, ranking 43rd.

The big problem for me in assessing Clark’s chances is the back nine at Castle Pines: in three trips, he’s played the inward half collectively in Even. He’s going to need to put at least a few circles on the board over the final few holes to have any chance of making up a five-shot deficit.

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