Draws and Fades: Can Adam Scott's putter be trusted?

CASTLE ROCK, Colo. – There were three jolts that hit the field during the second round of the BMW Championship, the first of which came before most of the 50-man field had reached the course.

Hours after he missed a two-foot putt that would have given him a share of the lead, Hideki Matsuyama withdrew from the no-cut event citing lower back pain. Last week’s winner in Memphis was one of the overnight odds favorites, down to +550 at BetMGM Sportsbook, and he was out of the mix before ever hitting a shot Friday at Castle Pines Golf Club.

The second jolt came from veteran Adam Scott, who torched the mountainous terrain outside Denver to the tune of a 9-under 63 to grab a five-shot lead when he finished his round. A few hours later, that score was matched by Ludvig Åberg – a man half Scott’s age but whose go-for-broke style of play paid big dividends in the second round.

With Keegan Bradley sandwiched between them, Scott’s overnight lead is now three with only four players – Bradley, Åberg, Alex Noren and Taylor Pendrith – within six shots of the Aussie’s 13-under mark.

Updated odds to win BMW Championship (via BetMGM)

• +160: Adam Scott (-13)
• +350: Ludvig Åberg (-9)
• +550: Keegan Bradley (-10)
• +1400: Alex Noren (-8)
• +2000: Patrick Cantlay (-5)
• +2500: Corey Conners (-6), Sungjae Im (-6)
• +3300: Collin Morikawa (-4)
• +4000: Xander Schauffele (-2), Wyndham Clark (-4)

So what to make of the now 49-man field heading into the weekend? And is there a player who can charge from the pack like Scott and Åberg did today? Let’s discuss:

Draws

Ludvig Åberg (+350)

I love the Swede’s mentality right now. He’s had two colorful scorecards, one a mixed bag (72) and one with a ton of birdies (63). But the opening-round hiccups didn’t slow down Åberg, who has now racked up 15 birdies and an eagle through 36 holes.

“I was encouraged (Thursday), because I felt like the mistakes that I made, they were still aggressive, which I really don’t mind,” Åberg said. “I would rather make a 6 the aggressive way than a 5 with a bail-out swing, if you know what I mean. I still felt like I could go out there today and make a lot of birdies, which I did today.”

Åberg will headline the all-Swedish penultimate pairing with Alex Noren, and he’ll be in chase mode from the start while facing a four-shot deficit. But as he’s shown at a number of stops, including last year at the RSM Classic, when the birdies get going they can come in bunches.

Expect Åberg to play his way into Sunday’s final pairing, at which point his price will be lower than this.

Akshay Bhatia (+8000)

Is this an opportunity to buy the dip on Bhatia? His irons were terrible in the opening round when he ranked 48th out of 50 players in SG: Approach. He bounced back on Friday, picking up strokes against the field with his irons while carding a 4-under 68. He still faces a hefty deficit, T10 and nine shots off the lead, but he’s been really strong with the putter (second in SG: Putting) and could lean on his broomstick as the foundation of an ultra-low third round.

Bhatia is unlikely to qualify automatically for a spot on the U.S. Presidents Cup team, having started the week 10th and with the top six after Sunday clinching spots, but a weekend surge into contention could go a long way toward getting the attention of U.S. captain Jim Furyk as Bhatia looks to make his first team event as a professional.

Fade

Adam Scott (+170)

This tournament may boil down to one question: can Scott’s putter be trusted?

The Aussie was rolling it in from everywhere Friday, and he leads the field in SG: Putting through 36 holes having picked up nearly seven shots on the field with putter in hand. A player who has spent plenty of time tinkering with his approach to putting, Scott was asked what the turning point was on the greens this year and he pushed back on the premise.

“I putt well all the time,” Scott said. “I don’t ever putt bad, actually. It’s really my iron play that has been atrocious for two years.”

The stats back up his claim: Scott is 37th in SG: Putting this season and only 80th in SG: Approach. He’s eighth with the irons this week, so clearly that combination propelled him to his pole position. He certainly putted well at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he nearly kept pace with Robert MacIntyre.

But after years of misses from close range, I feel like I have more confidence in the Aussie from the fairway than from just outside the leather. If he keeps up his current numbers in both categories he’ll be tough to beat – but 36 holes is a lot of golf, even with a shorter field and a shorter chase pack. Don’t be surprised to see another name atop the leaderboard heading into the final round.

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