Draws and Fades: Case for chasers after Hideki Matsuyama opens big lead in Memphis

MEMPHIS, Tenn. – The anticipated storm never arrived at TPC Southwind on Saturday but Hideki Matsuyama created a storm of his own to take the FedEx St. Jude Championship by the scruff of the neck.

Matsuyama produced the round of the day, a 6-under 64, to rocket to 17-under for the tournament. He now leads by a whopping five shots over rookie Nick Dunlap who sits 12-under after a clever 66.

FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland continued his resurgence to take third spot at 11-under, needing to stay high on the leaderboard to get back to the BMW Championship he won last year.

World no. 1 Scottie Scheffler had a poor day by his lofty standards, battling to a 69 to be a distant seven shots back. He is joined at 10-under by Sam Burns (70).

Matsuyama is now a -450 betting favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook, with Scheffler the nearest chance in the oddsmaker's eyes at +1000.

Here are the latest outright odds ahead of the final round in Memphis followed by some thoughts on whether anyone is likely to chase down the Japanese star.

• -450: Hideki Matsuyama (-17, 1st)
• +1000: Scottie Scheffler (-10, T4)
• +1400: Viktor Hovland (-11, 3rd)
• +1400: Nick Dunlap (-12, 2nd)
• +4000: Sam Burns (-10, T4)
• +8000: Xander Schauffele (-8, 8th)
• +12500: Will Zalatoris (-9, T6)
• +15000: Denny McCarthy (-9, T6)
• +50000: Billy Horschel (-7, T9)
• +50000: Tony Finau (-7, T9)

At most courses, five shots would be a tough lead to cough up, but those behind Matsuyama know TPC Southwind has a myriad of water hazards just waiting for errant shots.

My belief is Matsuyama will win tomorrow, but it wasn’t long ago we saw Scheffler chase down the lead at the Olympics and he also did it at THE PLAYERS early this season. If there is anyone who can do it, it’s Scheffler. I will stop short of drawing him to win, but if you want to ride the rollercoaster, he’s the guy to get in with.

“It's a golf course where there's opportunity and there's a lot of trouble. It's going to be tough to close it out on the back nine,” Scheffler said after his third round.

“There's a lot of water coming down the stretch. So I’ll try to get off to a good start, and Hideki is obviously playing some fantastic golf, but do my best to put a little bit of pressure on him and see what happens.”

Matsuyama knows the chase is possible. In 2021 at this course, he forced his way into a playoff despite starting the final rounds an incredible nine shots off the lead. He posted a 63 as Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith all imploded in the final round. Burns was also in the playoff after a 64 but it was won by Abraham Ancer.

So don’t give up on the pack completely although I’d prefer to look to see if we can find someone to chase in the place markets given Matsuyama’s last three final rounds at TPC Southwind were 65-63-68 and he now has 13 straight par or better rounds at TPC Southwind.

Draws

Xander Schauffele +130 for a Top 5 with DraftKings

Sitting two shots back of the race for a top five is Schauffele who appears to be somewhat going through the motions and conserving energy. But Sundays always bring out his hunger and I have doubts over Dunlap, Burns and Denny McCarthy above him holding their nerve to the finish. At third this season in SG: Tee-to-Green he has improvement left in him on this course.

Will Zalatoris +180 for a Top 5 with DraftKings

If you want a little more juice what about Zalatoris who already sits T6 and is a former winner on this course. With Burns playing shaky golf on Saturday, Zalatoris is just one shot off the money zone for this bet. Sitting seventh this week in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee should see him avoid the penalty areas and potentially slip into the top five.

Fade

Nick Dunlap +1400

Don’t get me wrong… what Dunlap has done this week and this season has been epic. But I fear for the youngster on Sunday because he “has” to stay up high on the leaderboard. Current projections see him moving from 67th in the FedExCup to 12th given he’s running second but if he drops out of the top seven on the leaderboard, he won’t even make it to Denver. He has a nice four-shot buffer at the moment in terms of moving on in the Playoffs but if he tries to protect it, TPC Southwind could bite him on the backside. I not only don’t think he will pressure Matsuyama, but I see a scenario where he’s battling down the back stretch to stay in the top five. He’s 42nd in SG: Off-the-Tee this week and if he’s that wayward on Sunday he will find the trouble.