Draws and Fades: Incoming storm gives fairway finders a boost in Memphis

MEMPHIS, Tenn. – If the heavens open as expected ahead of the third round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, then an opportunity should open for the best fairway finders at TPC Southwind.

Tee times for the third round have been moved to threesomes off the first and 10th tees between 9:45 a.m. and 11:45 a.m. local time in anticipation of earlier storms, with any decent downpour likely to see the implementation of preferred lies.

In this case, the difference between hitting the fairway off the tee and being able to clean your ball and set up a perfect lie becomes a significant advantage over those playing from rough that will be muddy and thick.

All of a sudden Driving Accuracy has become a serious premium.

Through two rounds it is former Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama and surprise packet Denny McCarthy sharing first place on top of the leaderboard at 11-under.

Matsuyama carded a 6-under 64 on Friday while McCarthy defied a hip injury to shoot 63.

They are one shot ahead of Sam Burns, a 63 from the Bermuda putting specialist moved him to 10-under.

And inevitably world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler remains in the mix with his 65 putting him as the +180 betting favorite via BetMGM Sportsbook at 9-under, just two off the lead.

Justin Rose (66) sits fifth at 8-under, as does Nick Dunlap (65) with defending FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland part of a tie for seventh at 7-under after a 63 – a score that could see him move on to his BMW Championship title defense if he can maintain his lofty leaderboard spot.

Here are the latest outright odds ahead of the final three rounds in Memphis followed by some thoughts on where value might lie.

• +180: Scottie Scheffler (-9, 4th)
• +300: Hideki Matsuyama (-11, T1)
• +700: Sam Burns (-10, 3rd)
• +800: Denny McCarthy (-11, T1)
• +2000: Viktor Hovland (-7, T7)
• +2200: Xander Schauffele (-5, T13)
• +2800: Justin Rose (-8, T5)
• +2800: Billy Horschel (-7, T7)
• +4000: Nick Dunlap (-7, T5)

When it comes to the outright market at this point you have to ask yourself first and foremost, how likely is a Scheffler win. Yesterday I faded the +250 odds, not because I thought he couldn’t win, but because they weren’t value considering how many holes were left and how volatile this course can be.

It is still hard for me to justify recommending you bet Scheffler at +180 even with his incredible form and season. If you think he will win, I would suggest not betting him in the outright at all, and not betting anyone else either. Instead look to other markets like place markets and or head-to-head round options and specials.

In Scheffler’s case, go to the over-under on his score or number of birdies, etc.

If it wasn’t for the potential storm tomorrow, I’d perhaps give Burns at +700 a chance, but his driving accuracy of 50% gives me pause.

Instead, I’m looking to other markets.

Draws

Aaron Rai (+700 for Top 5 via FanDuel)

With the asterisk applied that we do actually get a storm hit the Memphis area as expected and the TOUR uses preferred lies in Round 3, last week’s winner of the Wyndham Championship becomes someone to watch. He sits at 5-under, T13 through two rounds but could be the creeper in the pack.

He’s already carded four top-10s this season in the wet conditions, including his win last week and he ranks second on TOUR in Driving Accuracy. He is also tied first so far this week in Driving Accuracy. He is second in SG: Approach this week and fourth SG: Tee-to-Green. The hot hand could go low on Saturday.

Tommy Fleetwood (+220 Top 10 via DraftKings)

Much like Rai above I am relying on wet conditions for a Fleetwood charge. So hold off until the rain hits but when it does, look for the Englishman to make a run for the top 10. He currently sits 4-under in a tie for 20th so he has ground to make up but Fleetwood is tied first in Driving Accuracy this week and ninth on TOUR on the season in the metric. With the ball in his hand most of the round he can do some damage on Saturday.

Fade

Denny McCarthy (+800)

I know they say beware the injured golfer but hearing about McCarthy’s torn hip labrum has me skeptical he can maintain his lofty position atop the leaderboard. At 76th on TOUR in Driving Accuracy there is a little concern should it get wet also. He currently ranks 66th out of 70 players this week in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. That won’t cut it over the weekend no matter how great his putter has been.

“I don't want to divulge too much," McCarthy said post-round on his injury. "It's bothering me, and I've been able to do enough the last few days to push through it."

“It's just coming through on the downswing a little bit. It's just hard to maybe get a little more rotation, push up through the ground than I would like. It's been okay. The heat really helps it. It really loosens it up. But I've had to spend a lot of time post-round, pre-round getting it loose, getting it ready to go to play a full round.

“I haven't been thinking about it too much, which is nice. Just kind of been focused on… sounds cliché, I've just been focused on each shot really, trying to put the same amount of importance and focus into each shot.”