Draws and Fades: Big names lurk but value is in chase at steamy TPC Southwind

GERMANTOWN, Tenn. – The pressure of the FedExCup Playoffs is already rising, much like the temperature gauge at TPC Southwind, after a steamy opening round to the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

The Playoffs opener threw up a surprise first-round leader in Chris Kirk, who carded a 6-under 64 with the help of a hole-in-one on the par-3 14th. The Sentry winner from Maui back in January, Kirk’s only blemish came with an 18th-hole bogey.

Sitting at 5-under are another trio of TOUR winners from this season in Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama, Canada’s Taylor Pendrith and Frenchman Matthieu Pavon. Matsuyama joined Kirk in the lead on the back nine before a 17th-hole bogey.

While those three are locked into the BMW Championship, and look good for a spot in the TOUR Championship, the same can’t be said for Justin Rose, Ben Griffin, Brendon Todd and Denny McCarthy who kept their seasons alive with strong starts.

Those four signed for rounds of 66, projecting them closer to next week in Denver should they maintain their lofty leaderboard position.

Those Playoff battlers weren’t alone however in a tie for fifth. FedExCup top dogs and world Nos. 1 and 2 in Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are lurking ominously on the same score. As too is Olympic silver medalist Tommy Fleetwood.

Schauffele birdied his first three holes and Scheffler four of his first six as they continued their dominance making them the clear betting favorites. Scheffler now sits +250 with BetMGM Sportsbook with Schauffele at +550.

Chances are one of them can surge ahead but this is not the time to jump on the short odds. Others behind them have more to play for and energy conservation for later in the Playoffs could come into play. Maybe have some fun pitting them against each other tomorrow in a head-to-head market.

Here are the latest outright odds ahead of the final three rounds in Memphis followed by some thoughts on where value might lie.

• +250: Scottie Scheffler (-4, T5)
• +550: Xander Schauffele (-4, T5)
• +750: Hideki Matsuyama (-5, T2)
• +1200: Rory McIlroy (-2, T18)
• +1400: Tommy Fleetwood (-4, T5)
• +2000: Collin Morikawa (-2, T18)
• +2500: Chris Kirk (-6, 1st)
• +2500: Justin Thomas (-3, T12)
• +2800: Taylor Pendrith (-5, T2)

Draws

Collin Morikawa (+2000)

Sitting four shots back is one thing. Needing to also get past Scheffler and Schauffele is another. But I still see value on Morikawa from this point based on the capacity he has to improve from Thursday to Friday. It’s been a while since Morikawa drove the ball as poorly, hitting just four of 14 fairways to rank 62nd of 70 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. His season rank is 15th and if he can get back to that on Friday coupled with the fact he was third in SG: Approach then he could be a candidate to push up the leaderboard. The downside is there's no necessity to do so given his safety through the next rounds of the Playoffs.

Justin Thomas +2500

When the guys at the top of the betting board are going as well as they are you have to swing for the fences. And this is one guy who has already proven an ability to win at TPC Southwind in the past, and who quietly shot 67 while ranking fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in SG: Approach. Once again, the problem was the putter. He made just 38 feet worth of putts, missing five putts from 10-20-feet, which could’ve turned his round into something really special. If you think he can find some magic with the flatstick, he could be long enough odds to make it worth a shot.

Fade

Scottie Scheffler +250

Yeah, yeah, yeah … I know, I know. I’ve done this multiple times this year and been burned but just to be clear – in this case – I am fading the odds, not the player. While the seven-time winner this season is a rightful favorite at just two back, there is still the motivation of others who need it more this week to consider before jumping on short odds. Hold back another day at least in the outrights and see where he lands, especially since he only ranked inside the top 10 of one SG metric on Thursday – ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee. At 39th on Approach it makes you wonder how he is T5, but the fact he was 11th in Putting tells the story. Yes, he probably gets his ball-striking back tomorrow, but if he doesn’t… are you riding his putter?

Wildcards

Going back to Rose, Griffin, Todd and McCarthy, one can consider looking at their top 10 market odds as they know it’s a high finish or bust. Rose, a former FedExCup champion, and McCarthy are +230 for a Top 10 at DraftKings while Griffin is +250. Todd is an outsider at +320. The big stat at TPC Southwind is SG: Tee-to-Green and Rose ranked sixth on Thursday, well up from his season rank of 151st. McCarthy was seventh, Todd 12th and Griffin was 31st. Despite his poor season numbers, Rose would be the one I’d consider most, followed by Griffin who has shown form as of late.