Draws and Fades: Sensational Sunday ahead as cream rises for Olympics medal chase

Buckle up, Le Golf National is about to provide a firework finish in the chase for gold, silver and bronze.

Saturday’s third round gave us a great glimpse of what’s to come in Sunday’s final round, great players moving into the mix, pressure rising on others, and super low scores proving many golfers are still capable of a charge.

You might think the three medals are going to Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood, the three players who have created some space at the top, but the last two Olympics have shown this is no certainty.

Schauffele and Rahm now share the lead after Rahm’s 5-under 66 and Schauffele’s 3-under 68 moved them to 14-under. Fleetwood (69) holds third alone a shot behind at 13-under.

A course record tying 9-under 62 from Nicolai Højgaard not only put the Dane in the mix for a medal at 11-under, but showed what’s capable as others eye an aggressive top three or bust mentality.

Back in Tokyo the silver and bronze medals came from blistering rounds a long way back. Rory Sabbatini shot 61 for silver, C.T. Pan needed a 63 and then a win in a seven-man playoff. At Rio in 2016, Matt Kuchar shot 63 in the final round to storm up to bronze.

Joining Højgaard in a tie for fourth is Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama before some big names lurk at 10-under.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and three-time FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy are joined by South Korean Tom Kim and Belgium’s Thomas Detry tied for sixth just four shots back, three shots from bronze.

Ludvig Åberg, Jason Day and Joaquin Niemann will still have dreams of a podium finish starting Sunday from 9-under.

The updated outright odds for the gold medal from BetMGM are as follows:

• +150: Xander Schauffele (-14, T1)
• +190: Jon Rahm (-14, T1)
• +500: Tommy Fleetwood (-13, 3rd)
• +1600: Scottie Scheffler (-10, T6)
• +2000: Rory McIlroy (-10, T6)
• +2200: Hideki Matsuyama (-11, T4)
• +3000: Nicolai Højgaard (-11, T4)
• +4000: Tom Kim (-10, T6)
• +6000: Thomas Detry (-10, T6)

Here are the updated Top 5 odds from FanDuel:

• -800: Xander Schauffele (-14, T1)
• -600: Jon Rahm (-14, T1)
• -250: Tommy Fleetwood (-13, 3rd)
• -110: Scottie Scheffler (-10, T6)
• +130: Rory McIlroy (-10, T6)
• +140: Hideki Matsuyama (-11, T4)
• +230: Nicolai Højgaard (-11, T4)
• +260: Tom Kim (-10, T6)
• +300: Thomas Detry (-10, T6)

DRAWS

My belief is Schauffele (+150) will win back-to-back gold medals having done so in Tokyo, a thought I have ridden since pre-tournament but in a betting sense, now is not the time to bet on it. Both Schauffele’s +150 and Rahm’s +190 odds don’t give us enough juice. Instead, the draws come if you think the chasers can catch.

Getting Scheffler at +1600 and McIlroy at +2000 within four of the lead could be something to consider. But here are the facts – they are both hitting the ball great but not making near enough putts. It is going to take an outlier putting performance to cash in on their ball-striking.

Scheffler leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and is seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee but is losing almost three strokes on the greens (-2.956) to rank 47th in SG: Putting.

McIlroy is second in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee but sits just one rank ahead of Scheffler on the greens at 46th in SG: Putting.

The -110 (Scheffler) and +130 (McIlroy) for a Top 5 might be the place to focus.

FADES

I wouldn’t mind being wrong about this but I worry that Fleetwood (+500) won’t be able to find his way to the top of the leaderboard. I love him for a minor medal but gold, well … he has shown time and time again that winning big events when in the mix has eluded him. He is a former winner at Le Golf National and was a killer in the 2018 Ryder Cup at the venue, yet I still can’t bite the bullet on the outright win.

Another I’d be surprised to see at the top is Højgaard (+3000) purely for the fact he went so low on Saturday. It’s hard to back up a super low score with another. He has the talent, but the talent ahead of him should also hold him off.

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