Draws and Fades: Young crop looking to take down old guard at 3M Open

It's the old guard versus the new regime at the 3M Open.

PGA TOUR veteran Jhonattan Vegas, who will turn 40 in three weeks, leads the way at 16-under after shooting a round of 63 on Saturday at TPC Twin Cities. Right behind him at 15-under is 46-year old Matt Kuchar, who is seeking his 10th career victory.

Enter the youth. Maverick McNealy, age 28, is at 14-under, looking for his first TOUR win, as is 32-year old, Patrick Fishburn, who is tied for fourth place at 12-under. Tied with Fishburn is 26-year-old Sahith Theegala. Theegala shot a 66 on Saturday and was the only one of the bunch who did not fire a 63.

Taylor Pendrith began the weekend in Minnesota with a two-shot lead. He heads into Sunday trailing by six. Pendrith, a first-time winner earlier this season at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, followed up a Friday 64 with a 73 on Moving Day that moved him in the wrong direction down the leaderboard. It was in the middle of his round on Saturday that did him in, playing a five-hole stretch in 5-over. Pendrith enters the final round tied for ninth place with J.J. Spaun and Matt Wallace at 10-under. He went off as a +250 favorite to win the tournament this morning. He heads into Sunday as a +4000 underdog.

Despite losing strokes to the field around the green, on approach and in putting on Saturday, Pendrith remains solid in the stats overall. He'll likely need to go even lower than his second-round 64 on Sunday to have a chance at getting his second win of the season.

The wind was a big factor in Round 3, blowing steadily in the 15 mph range with gusts to as high as 30 mph. The forecast is calling for wind in Sunday's final round but it looks as if it will be a few notches calmer than what the players faced on Saturday.

Vegas hit an impressive 15 of 18 greens in regulation on Saturday - in that wind, en route to what was his lowest round of this season. He shot 64 on Friday at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago and went on to finish 20th, which was his best finish of the season. Vegas is currently 149th on the FedExCup points list. He is currently projected to move inside the top 70 to 67th with a win.

The oddsmakers are telling us that it will be one of the three players currently at the top of the leaderboard, who will be your winner on Sunday evening:

Updated odds to win 3M Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook):

• +140: Jhonattan Vegas
• +350: Matt Kuchar
• +450: Maverick McNealy
• +1000: Sahith Theegala
• +2000: Cam Davis, Patrick Fishburn
• +3000: Adam Svensson
• +4000: Taylor Pendrith

It is difficult to choose from the top four on the leaderboard after each went so low on Saturday with those aforementioned rounds of 63. It is not often that a player goes that low on one day and then follows it up with another especially low round the next day. Case in point, Pendrith.

Draw

Matt Kuchar (+450)

In my pre-tournament handicap, Vegas, McNealy, Theegala, Wallace, Spaun and Pendrith all popped up. Kuchar was really nowhere to be found. But I like the way he is going along now, getting progressively better each of the first three days and doing it with the best iron play in the field. He is currently No. 1 in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Regulation and SG: Tee to Green. He's 20th for SG: Off the Tee and is fifth in Scrambling. This is interesting, though. Kuchar is 60th in the field or SG: Putting. Saturday was the first day that he gained on the field with the flatstick but he is still losing nearly a stroke to the field overall. This is for a guy who ranks 23rd on TOUR in SG: Putting.

McNealy explained after Saturday's round, how difficult of a struggle it was traveling back to the States after missing the cut at The Open Championship and how he has been working to slowly get back to normal. Sure, a 28-year old can recover from that type of thing very quickly but put trying to secure your first-ever TOUR win on top of that, and maybe the winner's circle remains on hold for the Stanford Cardinal.

Vegas is a guy that often makes quite a bit of sense against a field that overall, is lacking a great deal of star power, but I have a hard time backing him now. He is gaining over four strokes on the field with the putter this week and ranks seventh in the field for SG: Putting. He ranks 171st on TOUR in SG: Putting. I don't want to bank on the putter staying hot for Vegas on Championship Sunday.

I'm going to go with the most veteran of them all in Kuchar to get that 10th victory on Sunday at TPC Twin Cities.

Fade

Sahith Theegala (+1000)

Theegala is almost the exact opposite story of Kuchar when you look at what he's been doing this week by the numbers. Theegala is a good putter and it has shown as he is currently 13th in this field for SG: Putting. The iron play has been slumping for Theegala for the last few months and that has continued here this week. He is losing over a stroke to the field on approach and ranks 52nd out of 74 players in this field for SG: Approach. Everything else is going along fine for Theegala, but I am hesitant to back a player that is not right with the irons - whether that be something that has been going on for a while or for just a few days. If the approach play continues to put pressure on his short game, I don't want to be on board for how that ends up.

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