Draws and Fades: Taylor Pendrith takes control at 3M Open

We’re halfway home at the 3M Open, and Taylor Pendrith is halfway to his second win of the 2024 season.

The Canadian burst through for his maiden win at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson back in May, and he’s again the man to beat in Minnesota after a second-round 64 gave him a two-shot advantage over Matt NeSmith. Pendrith is at least three shots clear of everyone else, including overnight leader Jacob Bridgeman, and he’s a clear man to beat in the eyes of BetMGM Sportsbook oddsmakers heading into the third round.

Updated odds to win 3M Open (via BetMGM)

• +250: Taylor Pendrith
• +1200: Andrew Putnam, Matt NeSmith, Sam Burns
• +1400: Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau
• +1600: Doug Ghim
• +1800: Jhonattan Vegas
• +2000: Jacob Bridgeman

The chase pack is highlighted by Finau, the 2022 champion who sits six shots back, as well as TOUR winners Sahith Theegala and Sam Burns who are both one shot closer at 7 under. With more low scores expected, can Pendrith put his recent confidence boost to use? Let’s examine:

Draws

Taylor Pendrith (+250)

Look, typically this is an auto-fade spot for me at this juncture. Pendrith is essentially a sitting duck, positioned at more than four times the price of any other player despite sitting just two shots adrift. This thing is far from over! But in the recent history of the 3M Open we have seen that TPC Twin Cities is a course where you can play from the front, case and point last year when Lee Hodges unexpectedly went wire-to-wire for his maiden win.

Pendrith undoubtedly will get a boost from his win earlier this season in Texas, and a second title will all but assure he will be playing on home soil at the Presidents Cup in a couple months. Pendrith is powerful off the tee, sitting second in SG: Off-the-Tee, and his putter has heated up through two rounds. It’s a potent combination, and I surely expect that he’ll be able to lean on the driver this weekend to maintain an edge on the field. Look for this price to be shorter heading into the final round.

Doug Ghim (+1600)

In this space yesterday I advocated for Theegala at +1000, so if you didn’t grab that I could still make a case for him at +1400. But rather than double dip I’ll shift my focus to Ghim, who like many on the first page of the leaderboard is in search of win No. 1.

Ghim missed only one green on Friday, and his 7-under 64 came despite not making a putt outside 10 feet. He picked up more than 5 shots on approach and now leads the field in SG: Approach while ranking seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee. If the putter heats up even a little bit, he’ll be a threat over the weekend.

Fades

Sam Burns (+1200)

Call him Mr. Comeback. One week after battling from 7 over through 11 holes at The Open into one of the final groups on Sunday, Burns is at it again in the Twin Cities. He was 3 over through 11 on Thursday, done in largely by a quadruple-bogey 8 on No. 7, before playing the next 24 holes in 11 under. He sits at 7 under, T9 and five shots behind Pendrith as he looks for career win No. 6.

But I think this is just too much yo-yoing from the Louisiana native, and he’ll ultimately fall short of victory. The energy expended to salvage his tournament was not insignificant, and Burns painted a similar picture at Pinehurst when a rough start transformed into a T9 finish. Back him in head-to-heads, or look for in-play place markets. But I’m looking elsewhere for my outright units given how high-variance Burns has played over the last few weeks.

Matt NeSmith (+1200)

NeSmith nearly got his first TOUR win a couple weeks ago, losing in a playoff at the ISCO Championship, and he’ll have a spot alongside Pendrith in the final pairing. But I’m not sold that NeSmith’s ball-striking can hold up to the weekend pressures, where everyone around him will be circling birdies with frequency. NeSmith ranked 111th or worse in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Putting entering the week, and those are some significant trends to turn around in the span of a week. I’m much more inclined to look further down the leaderboard for the top prospects to chase down the Canadian.

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