Draws and Fades: Getting behind the ‘revenge’ angle for Sahith Theegala at 3M Open

The 3M Open is off and running and, as expected, there are plenty of low scores to be had in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Jacob Bridgeman is the man to beat at the early stage, hoping to follow in the footsteps of Lee Hodges who went from relative unknown to wire-to-wire winner last year at TPC Twin Cities. Bridgeman opened with an 8-under 63, taking a one-shot lead over two-time PGA TOUR winner Mackenzie Hughes and two shots clear of three others.

Updated odds to win 3M Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook):

• +850: Tony Finau
• +900: Mackenzie Hughes
• +1000: Sahith Theegala
• +1600: Jacob Bridgeman, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Pendrith
• +2000: Michael Thorbjornsen
• +2200: Emiliano Grillo
• +2800: Adam Svensson, Andrew Novak
• +3000: Cam Davis, Kurt Kitayama

Conditions are expected to yield more low scores throughout the weekend, as Bridgeman – who has made just 10 of 18 cuts this year without a top-10 finish – looks to lead from the pole position. It won’t be easy, though, with a number of TOUR-proven winners within reach outside Minneapolis.

Let’s look at the players who have put themselves in position for an in-play add, as well as those whose price may be a touch short after 18 holes:

Draws

Sahith Theegala (+1000)

If the revenge tour concept works well for Taylor Swift, perhaps Theegala can put it to use this week. A winner last year in Napa, Theegala explained after his opening 66 that he considers this a “revenge week” after past struggles here.

“I’m not even worried about the score,” he said. “I just want to beat the golf course.”

Admittedly, that’s a high-variance approach as the next beatable golf course will be the first. But I like the added element to Theegala’s approach, especially considering his position on the leaderboard and the names around him. It’s been feast or famine this year for Theegala, who was a runner-up at Harbour Town and finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open but blew up last week with rounds of 77-79 at Royal Troon. I’m willing to lean in on the SG: Motivation factor and see where it leads.

Gary Woodland (+5000)

Woodland is alongside Theegala at 5-under and sitting at five times the price. Consider me intrigued. The former U.S. Open champion remains on the comeback trail after brain surgery last year, but he has shown intermittent signs of promise. That includes Thursday’s opener that featured six birdies against a single bogey.

Woodland hasn’t cracked the top 30 since the Texas Children's Houston Open back in March, but this number is still a touch too high for a player who knows how to get the job done should he remain in the mix over the weekend.

Fades

Tony Finau (+850)

I get why Finau was positioned at the top of the pre-tournament odds list, and he did enough to retain that status in the opening round – a 4-under 67 that left him four shots off the early pace. But his in-play price is still based more on pedigree than current position.

The 2022 champ made five birdies against just one bogey and was among the best in the field on SG: Approach. The issue came, as it often does, on the greens, where he lost ground to the field. The winning score is still trending toward 20-under or better this week, and Finau doesn’t have much margin for error to keep pace with the eventual leaders. It’ll put some extra emphasis on the putter, and I have my doubts as to whether he can rekindle his birdie efficiency from two years ago – especially at this price as the updated favorite.

Patrick Rodgers (+1600)

I’ve been burnt too many times before trying to predict Rodgers’ long-awaited maiden win, so this start at TPC Twin Cities – while promising – isn’t a point where I’d look to buy. It comes one week after Rodgers let another chance slip away, contending deep on Sunday at the Barracuda Championship before settling for a T5 finish. His opener Thursday was a microcosm of that trend, as he carded eight birdies and eight pars across his first 16 holes before closing with a pair of bogeys to drop back to 6-under.

It was Rodgers’ 13th top-5 finish in 271 career starts on TOUR, but at age 33 he’s still looking for his first trophy. Could it come this week in Minnesota? Perhaps. But Rodgers is a player that I’m approaching with extreme caution in the outright market, even after an opener that featured some promising shots.

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