Sunday Story-lines: Can Xander Schauffele rise through rain for second major?

TROON, Scotland – Well, an Open Championship has well and truly broken out along the Scottish coast.

Mother Nature was the winner Saturday at Royal Troon Golf Club, where storms rolled in off the Firth of Clyde just in time for the overnight leaders to tee off in the year’s final major. It created a combination of wind and rain that beefed up the seaside links and made controlling a golf ball challenging if not impossible.

Hats were worn backward because of the water. Drivers were taken on par-3s because of the wind. The lucky few that rocketed up the leaderboard did so by starting early in the morning and carding rounds in the 60s before the worst of the weather came ashore.

But this is now a wide-open competition, with veteran Billy Horschel taking a one-shot lead into the final round where he’ll be joined in the final pairing by Thriston Lawrence. (Yes, Thriston Lawrence.) Recent major winners Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler are within striking distance, while overnight leader Shane Lowry sits three shots back despite a disastrous 77.

In total there are 12 players who will start the day at Even or better, each no more than four shots off the lead. So let’s take a look at them through the prism of the oddsmakers – who list Schauffele and Scheffler, not Horschel, as the betting favorites heading into the final major round of 2024:

+350: Xander Schauffele (-3, T2): Will one major quickly lead to two for the PGA champ? Schauffele enters Sunday as the slim betting favorite after a 2-under 69. He’s among the leaders in key SG: categories and needs only for his putter to perform like it did Saturday (18th in SG: Putting) to have a chance to become the first to bag his first two majors in the same year since Jordan Spieth did it back in 2015.

+360: Scottie Scheffler (-2, 8th): Scheffler was a ball-striking machine in the rain Saturday, but he couldn’t buy a putt. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Masters champ is still losing ground on the greens, but he has a golden opportunity to join some rarified air with what would be his seventh TOUR win (and second major) of 2024. In my view, though, this leaderboard is a little too crowded for Scheffler’s steady play to land another trophy – he’s a Fade for me at this price.

+550: Billy Horschel (-4, leads by 1): Is Horschel following in the footsteps of defending champ Brian Harman? An underrated veteran who doesn’t have a ton of great major results, but suddenly he picks a great week to have a great week? Horschel is 37, while Harman was 36 last year at Royal Liverpool. Harman won in his 340th TOUR start, while Horschel is making start No. 342. Horschel got up and down from all over Scotland Saturday and takes the 54-hole lead into Sunday – a key distinction since each of the last six majors have been won by the overnight leader.

+850: Justin Rose (-3, T2): Can the aging veteran get major No. 2? Rose had to go to final qualifying to earn his spot in the field, and he would become the first since Paul Lawrie (1999) to win as a qualifier should he get his hands on the claret jug. Rose was a runner-up back in 2018 but is stirring up some spirited stuff this week, and on the eve of his 44th birthday, he knows that future shots to contend on Sunday at a major aren’t guaranteed.

+850: Sam Burns (-3, T2): Where did he come from? Burns was 7 over through 11 holes on Thursday, then battled back to make the cut before vaulting up the leaderboard with a 66 in calm conditions. Burns had a similar comeback last month at Pinehurst, where he salvaged a T9 finish for his first career top-10 result in a major.

+900: Russell Henley (-3, T2): Like Horschel, another player looking to follow in Harman’s footsteps as Henley (35) briefly teamed with Harman on the Georgia team. Henley finished T7 at the U.S. Open so is now contending in two majors in a row, and he’ll look to lean on his irons (seventh in SG: Approach) to pave the way to a maiden major.

+1400: Thriston Lawrence (-3, T2): The South African backed his way into the final pairing, and now he’ll look to become the first to record his maiden PGA TOUR win at The Open since Ben Curtis in 2003. Can he do it is anyone’s guess, and he’s priced accordingly. Despite his standing on the leaderboard, Lawrence is 71st in SG: Approach for the week – a far cry from what he’ll need to win. A veteran of the DP World Tour, Lawrence has made just 13 prior TOUR starts.

+2800: Daniel Brown (-3, T2): Brown finally looked a little human on No. 18, making a sloppy double bogey to drop from the lead. His current price is close to the +3500 he had after taking the first-round lead, but I think the wobbly ball-striking that he shielded with some epic escapes will be his undoing. Brown will do well to stay within the top 4 for a 2025 Masters bid, or the top 10 for a return next year at Royal Portrush. But he still has a chance to join a short list of players who won their first-ever major start: Francis Ouimet (1913 U.S. Open), Ben Curtis (2003 Open) and Keegan Bradley (2011 PGA Championship).

+2500: Shane Lowry (-1, 9th): Lowry had his worst round of the day, finishing near the bottom of the field Saturday in SG: Putting – but he’s not out of this thing just yet. The winds will shift back Sunday to resemble the way the course played Thursday and Friday, when the Irishman was leading the way. I think he’ll find a way to shake this off, and Lowry would be a Draw for me at this in-play price. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he rallies and follows in the footsteps of countryman Padraig Harrington, the last player to earn each of his first two majors at The Open.

+4500: Adam Scott (E, T10): When he finished his third round, Scott thought his title chances were gone and expected the lead to be between 7 and 9 under. Mother Nature had other ideas. Now the Aussie has another shot at the claret jug that he let slip away back in 2012 at Royal Lytham and St. Anne’s. Can his often-balky putter steady itself for a Sunday charge to a second major at age 44?

+5000: Justin Thomas (E, T10): Thomas came from way back on Sunday to win the 2022 PGA Championship, his second major and still most recent win. It seemed his title hopes were sunk by a front-nine 45 (!!) on Friday, but now he’s still alive. To complete another comeback he’ll need the driver to cooperate (currently 79th in SG: Off the Tee).

+12000: Matthew Jordan (E, T10): Last year’s Cinderella top 10 still has a shot to shock the world. Jordan’s price reflects his longshot status, though, as he has shot three straight rounds of even-par 71 while relying almost exclusively on his iron game (second in SG: Approach).

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call, or text 1-800 GAMBLER today.