Draws and Fades: Is this Justin Rose’s last (best) chance for major No. 2? Top betting questions for Round 3

TROON, Scotland – We’re at the halfway point of The 152nd Open, and there’s a former champion atop the leaderboard looking for a second engraving on the claret jug. But can Shane Lowry hold on over the weekend like he did five years ago at Royal Portrush?

Lowry sits in the catbird’s seat through 36 holes, having carded one shot more than the day’s best score on each of the first two rounds It adds up to 7-under 135, and Lowry is at least two shots ahead and five clear of anyone not named Justin Rose or Dan Brown.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler lurks just off the pace, as does reigning PGA champion Xander Schauffele. But the oddsmakers agree that Lowry is the man to beat entering Round 3:

Updated odds to win The Open:

• +200: Shane Lowry (7-under)
• +330: Scottie Scheffler (2-under)
• +650: Justin Rose (5-under)
• +1000: Xander Schauffele (1-under)
• +1800: Patrick Cantlay (1-under)
• +2500: Dan Brown (5-under)
• +3000: Collin Morikawa (1-over), Corey Conners (1-under), Billy Horschel (2-under), Dean Burmester (2-under)

With plenty of golf left (and some interesting weather expected to blow across the coast), let’s take a look at the biggest betting storylines heading into the weekend:

1. Can Shane Lowry repeat his magic from Portrush?

Five years ago, Lowry shared the 36-hole lead in Northern Ireland before building a four-shot cushion after 54 holes and ultimately winning by six shots. It was a commanding performance by the Irishman, and one he’ll hope to replicate this week – but that’s easier said than done.

After all, majors have also unfolded differently for Lowry – notably the 2016 U.S. Open, when he coughed up a four-shot lead on Sunday. He credited that struggle as one of the primary reasons he got his name on the claret jug in 2019, but it’s an example of why this tournament is far from over despite Lowry’s newfound status as betting favorite after opening the week at +4000 via BetMGM Sportsbook. Asked after the round if he considers himself a front-runner, Lowry offered one of the lines of the week.

“Well, I wouldn’t say I’m a good runner,” Lowry offered with a chuckle.

Lowry did it with the putter on Thursday, then leaned more heavily on his irons Friday in posting a well-rounded 2-under 69. He’ll face an added curve ball Saturday with the weather forecast (more on that below), but there’s no doubting the fact that he’s the man to beat heading into the weekend. Whether he’ll be beaten, though, remains to be seen. This much we know: If he puts up another score that’s near the day’s best on Saturday, he’ll take another commanding lead into the final round.

2. Is this Justin Rose’s last (best) chance for major No. 2?

Rose feels like one of those players who should have multiple majors under his belt. He let one get away at the 2017 Masters, losing in a playoff, and he’s been in the mix several other times – his T6 finish at Valhalla this summer was his 20th top-10 result in a major, a stretch that dates back to Royal Birkdale in 1998 when he finished T4 as an amateur.

Rose had to go to final qualifying to earn his spot in this week’s field, and on the cusp of his 44th birthday he knows that every shot at contending in a major could be his last. But he seems to be relishing the challenge this week, having holed a birdie on the 18th green Friday amid raucous cheers to get back within two shots of the lead.

“I think today was the perfect balance,” Rose said. “You’re fighting through every moment on the course, and I think that was what I did a good job of today as well as playing well.”

Twenty-six (!!) years after doffing his cap memorably after holing out on the 72nd hole as a cherub-faced amateur at Birkdale, Rose looks the part of a grizzled vet these days. But the game is still in there, and it would surprise no one to see someone who captured a U.S. Open title at a course as difficult as Merion to contend on a demanding layout like Royal Troon.

3. Will world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler make a run at the leaders?

Scheffler was playing a bit shorthanded Friday, with his regular caddie Ted Scott battling what Scheffler termed food poisoning. It didn’t amount to a significant distraction for the six-time winner this year, as Scheffler has carded two straight sub-par rounds and has only three names above his on the leaderboard.

Granted, there is some distance: he’s three behind Rose and Brown, and he trails Lowry by five. But oddsmakers have trimmed his price significantly, both because of the pre-tournament action they received on him in recent months and because of his penchant to win, well, anywhere this year.

If he’s going to make a run at a third major title, he’ll need his irons to remain a point of strength. He’s seventh in the field in SG: Approach, and while he’s gaining strokes on the field in every other category, his irons stand out. Another bout of precise approaches could give him a great chance to get his name on the claret jug.

4. What does the forecast have in store for the leaders?

If you enjoy watching the best in the world getting challenged, get your popcorn ready. The forecast for Saturday’s third round is the bleakest of the week. The latest update from the tournament for Saturday afternoon – when the leaders will be out on the course – reads as follows:

Overcast with outbreaks of rain arriving early or mid-afternoon. Rain probably turning heavier and more persistent from late afternoon.

Sounds like fun to watch, less fun to actually play in. Lowry seems to have gotten a bit of an edge with his early-week draw, having played in relatively calm conditions Thursday afternoon and before the winds got going on Friday, but he’ll face all that Royal Troon has to offer come Saturday. If he continues to be among the best rounds of the day, he’ll take a healthy lead into the final round – and deservedly so. But on paper, this looks like a big enough variable that anyone under par feels like the tournament has yet to begin in earnest. Game on, and may the best mudder win.

5. Who from the chase pack will rise to the occasion?

This thing is still wide open, with the group at 1-over trailing by eight shots but only T13. Still very much in the mix, especially considering four of them are former major winners in Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm.

With the pack thinned and inclement weather on the horizon, you know one of them (or perhaps someone at even or 1-under) will card something in the 60s to take a very realistic chance at victory into the final round. Of the contenders, I’m ready to double down on Schauffele (+1000), whose ball-striking numbers jump off the page but whose putter has cooled. I expect Schauffele to be able to handle the inclement conditions, and ultimately I expect it’s him – and not Scheffler – who will have the best chance this weekend at winning a second major in 2024.

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