Draws and Fades: Check out top betting storylines heading into Round 2 at Royal Troon

TROON, Scotland – A blustery, eventful round is in the books at The 152nd Open – with a truly unexpected name at the top.

It was a full day of “proper golf” conditions along the Scottish coast, as the year’s final major got underway with the waves lapping alongside the first tee box at Royal Troon Golf Club. It ended with Daniel Brown – yes, Daniel Brown – leading The Open.

Anything in red figures was an achievement, one that only 17 of the 157 players accomplished, but among that group are several familiar faces. Likewise, some of the game’s biggest names made a quick move for the exits and likely won’t stick around once the 36-hole cut is made.

Here's a look at the updated odds via BetMGM Sportsbook, with world No. 1 five shots back but still pacing the way in the eyes of oddsmakers:

• +400: Scottie Scheffler
• +450: Shane Lowry
• +600: Xander Schauffele
• +1400: Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka
• +2800: Alex Noren, Collin Morikawa, Matthew Fitzpatrick
• +3500: Daniel Brown

So where will our attention turn during Friday’s round, when winds are expected to (slightly) subside? And who among the current contenders will still be in the mix? Let’s take a look at the top betting storylines to monitor heading into Round 2 at Royal Troon:

1. Is Justin Thomas due for more Scottish regression?

This is two weeks in a row that Thomas has gotten off to a roaring start across the Atlantic. Last week it was an opening 62, good enough for First Round Leader honors at the Genesis Scottish Open, but the magic didn’t last. He followed with a 72, didn’t break 70 over the weekend and settled for a T62 finish.

The trends have been similar at The Open, where Thomas carded a 3-under 68 Thursday to briefly take the lead before being passed by Lowry and Brown. It’s the fourth time that Thomas has started this event with a sub-70 effort – but each of the three previous times he followed with a round of 77 or higher. That includes here at Royal Troon back in 2016, when he went 67-77 en route to a T53 finish.

As a two-time major champion, Thomas has the game to hang on any leaderboard. But he’s still in search of his first win since the PGA at Southern Hills more than two years ago, and his struggles – as evidenced last week – have largely been with consistency. Thomas is down to +1400 at BetMGM after opening at +6600 pre-tournament, but I’d be looking for an option to lay at that price. Given this leaderboard, and Thomas’ recent ebbs and flows, I’d expect him to slide back to the pack over the weekend.

2. Does Rory McIlroy have another Portrush rally in the bag?

Has it really been five years since McIlroy memorably tried to salvage a week to forget in Northern Ireland? His opening 79 at Royal Portrush knocked him out of the Open mix but he surged back with partisan support, shooting a second-round 65 that left him in tears after he fell one shot short of the cut line.

He’ll need similar heroics to keep a weekend tee time in sight at Royal Troon, after nearly everything went awry for the Ulsterman en route to a 7-over 78. The lowlights included bunker woes on the Postage Stamp, a drive over the railway tracks on No. 11 and just one birdie.

Speaking briefly with the media after the round, McIlroy was asked about parallels to Portrush from 2019.

“All I need to focus on is tomorrow and try to make the cut,” McIlroy said. “That’s all I can focus on.”

The world No. 2 was clearly out of sorts during his opener, beguiled by winds that blew in the opposite direction of the prevailing gusts. Friday’s conditions are expected to be the calmest of the week, but there’s no hiding from the fact that McIlroy’s chances to end his 10-year major drought evaporated in the span of a few hours. Without the same emotional charge he had from playing on home soil at Portrush, I don’t expect him to offer similar theatrics this time around.

3. Did we all forget about Shane Lowry?

The man doing the celebrating back at Portrush in 2019, of course, was Lowry who broke through for the biggest win of his career. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 in three Open starts since, but he’s now the man to beat at Royal Troon after stuffing his approach to the home hole before capping a 5-under 66 with his fifth birdie of the week.

“I feel like links greens, when you start to see your lines, the hole feels quite big,” Lowry said. “So it felt like that today, and long may it continue.”

Lowry’s late-afternoon effort was sublime, as he made it around the tricky links without dropping a shot. A few months removed from his team win alongside McIlroy at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Lowry has been a little quiet in recent weeks but likely shouldn’t have been overlooked: he has top-20 finishes in each of his last two starts, including a T9 at the Travelers Championship that included a 62, and he’s 10th this season in SG: Approach.

Lowry walked off the 18th green with a Cheshire cat grin, almost as if he had stolen something by putting his score on the board. His +4000 pre-tournament odds are long gone, but it seems like Lowry could be around for a while this week.

4. Who the heck is Daniel Brown?

Admit it, you didn’t know his name either until a few hours ago. The 29-year-old Englishman made it into the field by burying a 20-footer on the last hole of his qualifier at West Lancashire three weeks ago. Brown plays primarily on the DP World Tour, but his 61st-place finish last week at the Genesis Scottish Open ended a streak of seven straight MCs (including one WD). So don’t feel bad that he didn’t make your pre-tournament card.

Brown was a whopping +75000 at the start of the week, and he’s still sitting at +3500 after his stunning 6-under 65 Thursday. He led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee, and combined that with a +4.49 performance on the greens. In essence, Brown picked a good day to have one of the best rounds of his life.

We’ve seen unexpected names hang around for various lengths of time at this event – think Tom Lewis, Paul Dunne, and even back to Tom Watson’s remarkable run 15 years ago. Brown’s stint on the big yellow leaderboards in Troon will likely be short-lived, as he’s still facing long odds for a top-10 or even a top-20 finish. But even if he fades in the coming days, he’ll always have Thursday at Royal Troon, when everything went according to plan on one of the sport’s biggest stages.

5. Is the future Champion Golfer of the Year lurking just below the surface?

Brown has set the pace with Lowry in close pursuit, but there’s plenty of star power still within striking distance. Chief among them: current PGA champ Xander Schauffele, who picked up ground in all five major Strokes Gained categories en route to a 2-under 69; five-time major winner Brooks Koepka, who turned in a 2-under score after playing his first three holes in 2 over, and of course world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who sits one shot further back but still in red figures at 1-under.

Scheffler remains the overnight betting favorite, having been a clear frontrunner with pre-tournament action given his six wins and major performances this year. But Schauffele and Koepka both shortened significantly, and there are some familiar vets lurking in major champs Justin Rose (2-under), Matthew Fitzpatrick (1-under) and Adam Scott (1-under).

Of that group, I have the most confidence in Schauffele at the moment. I really think he’s going to make a serious run toward major No. 2 this week – and I’m already regretting not topping my card with him! His +550 price is less than half of his opening number, but I expect him only to get shorter as we head toward an action-packed weekend here in Scotland.

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