Justin Thomas started the Genesis Scottish Open with the form of a two-time major winner, not that of a player who missed the FedExCup Playoffs a year ago.

Thomas opened with an 8-under 62 to take a one-shot lead at Renaissance Golf Club, pacing ahead of Sungjae Im and moving closer to his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship. It was a clinical performance that included eight birdies, no bogeys and a ton of made putts – and also made Thomas the in-play betting favorite, narrowly ahead of Rory McIlroy who opened with a 5-under 65 in North Berwick.

Updated odds to win Genesis Scottish Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• +550: Justin Thomas (-8)
• +600: Rory McIlroy (-5)
• +650: Ludvig Åberg (-6)
• +1000: Sungjae Im (-7)
• +1200: Collin Morikawa (-5)
• +1400: Tommy Fleetwood (-5)
• +1800: Thomas Detry (-6)
• +2500: Davis Thompson (-5)

It’s a big jump for Thomas, who has put up some sporadic finishes this season but opened +3500 pre-tournament. McIlroy showed no signs of rust in his first competitive round since the U.S. Open, while Åberg seems poised for more success despite getting an unlucky bounce when his approach shot landed on playing partner Collin Morikawa’s ball on the fly and bounded off the green.

With more soft conditions (and low scores) in the forecast on Friday, here’s how I see the odds board shaping up after the opening round:

Draws

Thomas Detry (+1800)

The Belgian made headlines for his six-putt earlier this year at PGA National, but he has quietly steadied the ship and could be poised for a breakthrough this week in Scotland. Detry was a runner-up in Houston, T4 at the PGA and has missed just one cut in 11 starts since his putting gaffe in Palm Beach Gardens. He’s among the best putters on TOUR and made six birdies Thursday to go along with a hole-out eagle on No. 4.

With a leaderboard littered with PGA TOUR stars and accomplished winners, Detry may be underpriced as he seeks his maiden victory on a course where he lost a playoff three years ago.

Mackenzie Hughes (+12500)

This price stood out to me for a player who knows how to win and got off to a strong start with a 4-under 66. Hughes had five birdies against a bogey Thursday to sit T23, but should he be double the price of someone like Sahith Theegala (+5000) or Nicolai Hojgaard (+6600) at the same spot on the leaderboard? I don’t think so.

Hughes would still qualify as an unlikely winner at Renaissance, but he’s far from drawing dead after this opening round – even if his updated price would slot him as a longshot. Three top-10s this year, a pair of 65s in his most recent start (Travelers) and a penchant for getting hot on the greens? It’s enough to get my attention.

Fades

Justin Thomas (+550)

Thomas’ week will be determined on the greens. In the midst of resurgent weeks, like a T5 at the Travelers Championship in his most recent start, Thomas has largely been held back by his putter. He ranks 157th on TOUR this season in SG: Putting, and while the putter has never been a strong suit for Thomas it has in more recent months become a bit of a bellwether. He rolled it well on Thursday, capitalizing on the slower greens across the Atlantic – and indirectly crediting his recent practice in South Florida, where the greens can roll slower than normal during the summer off-season. But can he sustain it for another 54 holes? I’m not so sure.

The issue for Thomas, especially at this price, is the lack of margin for error. Everyone behind him will keep their foot on the gas, and inevitably the putts will drop for someone. The winning score this week could easily reach 20 under or beyond. I’m not sold that Thomas can keep up that pace, and one six- or nine-hole wobbly stretch could amount to his undoing. If you snagged him at +3500 pre-tournament you have reason to smile, but I don’t love buying in at this updated number.

Ludvig Åberg (+650)

I’m bullish long-term on the Swede, but I still think he has some weekend worries to solve. He’s best in the opening round, ranking 10th in Round 1 scoring average this season, while he fades to 44th and 40th over the next two rounds and 71st in final-round average. It’s a trend that we have seen pop up at multiple junctures this season, notably at the U.S. Open where he shot 73-73 over the weekend to drop from the lead to a T12 result. It’s the type of learning curve that Åberg will be able to address (and correct) as he continues through his first full season as a pro, but it’s one that can create situations like this where his price shortens quickly mid-tournament.

Even if he avoids landing approach shots directly onto the golf balls of his playing partners over the next couple days, I would much rather back McIlroy at a similar price and leaderboard position than buy some Åberg stock right now.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call, or text 1-800 GAMBLER today.