Draws and Fades: Look for Eric Cole, not Davis Thompson, to earn first TOUR win at John Deere Classic

If you wanted some fireworks on this Fourth of July weekend, look no further than Silvis, Illinois, and to the John Deere Classic.

Hayden Springer got things off and running on Thursday with an opening round of 59. Of the players that made it to the weekend, an additional 28 rounds of 64 or better have been recorded over the first three days. The birdie is alive and well at TPC Deere Run, and the bogey is becoming an endangered species.

I was on Davis Thompson pre-tournament last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he finished runner-up. At 21-under, he has a two-shot lead heading into the final round this week, looking to bag his first-ever TOUR victory. It’s a similar story for the Englishman, Aaron Rai, who also finished runner-up last week in Detroit. Rai led at both the halfway point and after 54 holes last week. He's also seeking his first TOUR win, as is Eric Cole, who's tied for second alongside Rai at 19-under.

Updated odds to win John Deere Classic (via BetMGM Sportsbook):

• +100: Davis Thompson (21-under)
• +300: Aaron Rai (19-under)
• +400: Eric Cole (19-under)
• +2500: C.T. Pan (17-under), Hayden Springer (17-under)
• +3000: Luke Clanton (16-under)
• +4000: Michael Thorbjornsen (16-under)

Funny to say that Rai's round on Moving Day was a relatively pedestrian 66. Cole shot 64 and Thompson fired a 9-under 62.

Earlier on Saturday, while doing an on-air segment, I said that 25-under would be the winning score. It looks like that could be light. Thundershowers are in the forecast for Sunday morning, expected to begin around 8 a.m. local time – with tee times adjusted and the leaders now teeing off at 11:37 a.m. CT. If the forecast holds, soft conditions could render TPC Deere Run nearly defenseless.

For wagering purposes, that would be an even bigger advantage for the frontrunners because with bogeys not being likely, it will be difficult to catch the leaders if they are not coming back to the pack. After Rai and Cole, Springer and C.T. Pan sit at 17-under. Three more players are at 16-under and another three at 15-under. Jordan Spieth, after firing a 63 on Saturday, is seven shots back at 14-under. Spieth is currently +10000 to win the John Deere Classic for the third time.

So, where will the dust settle on Sunday? Will it be yet another future star who earns their maiden victory at John Deere? There’s a good chance that answer is yes.

Draws

Eric Cole (+400)

First of all, I don't think the number is that great. He probably should be +500 or +600. He is the one on the leaderboard, however, that probably has the most recognizable name, and that can often translate into paying a premium – so, buyer beware. I do feel like he may the most ready to win of the bunch, though. He came oh so close, losing in a playoff last year at PGA National to Chris Kirk. He was sixth last week in Detroit and closed out the weekend at the Travelers Championship by going 66-65 the week before. Last fall, between September and November, Cole finished top four in four out of five starts. He has had experience being extremely close, and here he is again. It takes a few disappointments oftentimes before one can break through, and Cole seems to have built up enough scar tissue to move on.

For the week, he's been playing at a high level. In Strokes Gained: Total, he is right at the top of the heap – and of those at the top, he is the best putter. Some will refer to a "birdie-fest" as simply a putting contest – and if that is the case, I'll take Cole.

C.T. Pan (+2500)

Different from Cole, this is actually a pretty good number – but Pan is not a great putter, ranking 113th on TOUR in SG: Putting. It seems however, that he got his bad round out of the way on Saturday, a 3-under 68, where he lost over a stroke on the greens with the putter and off the tee. Prior to Saturday, Pan shot 65-63. At 17-under for the tournament, he'll probably need 63 again to have a chance, and I believe at +2500, it is worth a flyer. Of those in contention, he is one of very few who actually has the experience of getting a PGA TOUR win. He is also one of the leaders in the field for the week SG: Tee-to-Green. If the putter goes back to where it was on Thursday and Friday, Pan has a chance to cash as a long bomb.

Fades

Davis Thompson (+100)

Three things here are in Thompson's favor to close the deal. He's been in excellent form, with two recent runner-up finishes and a ninth a few weeks ago at the U.S. Open. He's a pretty solid putter, slightly better than TOUR average, and his price is fair. We noted, with a two-shot advantage, it is a big edge when the leaders are not likely to slip. This is where I see a possible problem, though. Even though he has had some near-misses as of late, they have all come in chase mode – and he wasn't able to chase enough, missing out on a birdie opportunity on the 18th hole last week that would've forced a playoff. He also hasn't ever slept on a solo 54-hole lead before. It also worries me that he has shown some inconsistency this week in approach play and putting. It would be shocking if he doesn't have another strong chance to win this – but I see it somehow finding a way to elude him for the second straight week.

Aaron Rai (+300)

Unfortunately I feel the same way about Rai, who made a tremendous birdie on the final hole on Saturday to get to 19-under. And he did it with another monster putt. This is what I can't fathom. Prior to last week's runner-up finish in Detroit, Rai ranked 118th on TOUR in SG: Putting. This week he moved to 107th. This week, at the John Deere Classic, he is No. 1 in the field with the flatstick, gaining almost 10 shots on the field with the putter. It's unbelievable, and I don't believe it is sustainable. It was a similar story last week at the Rocket Mortgage when Rai was in the lead heading into Sunday, carrying a hot putter, and fell off in the end, shooting an even-par 72 to come up one shot short. He is one of the classiest ball-strikers in the world, but he's not the man I want to back in a putting contest coming down the stretch – especially when he, like Thompson, will be trying desperately to secure his first TOUR win.

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