Draws and Fades: Pre-tournament favorite Sungjae Im poised to make weekend run in Quad Cities

We’ve reached the halfway point of the John Deere Classic, and things are only slightly clearer than they looked before the first ball was struck.

Two players, Aaron Rai and C.T. Pan, share the lead at TPC Deere Run – but the top nine names are separated by only two shots. Scoring slowed during Friday’s second round, where Hayden Springer’s 59 from the day prior was nowhere in sight, but there were still plenty of birdies to be found in the Quad Cities.

Assessing the field at the halfway point offers a number of possibilities: A veteran getting across the finish line for win No. 1 on TOUR (Rai, Eric Cole or Denny McCarthy)? A veteran ending a victory drought (Pan or Sungjae Im)? Or even another amateur – Luke Clanton – following in Nick Dunlap’s footsteps by winning on TOUR before turning pro?

Updated odds to win John Deere Classic (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• +350: Aaron Rai
• +700: Sungjae Im
• +900: Davis Thompson
• +1000: C.T. Pan, Denny McCarthy
• +1400: Eric Cole, Luke Clanton (a)
• +2000: Harry Hall
• +2500: Adam Svensson, Kevin Yu

There’s plenty still to be decided in Moline, but here’s how I’d look to parse the field with in-play wagers heading into Round 3:

Draws

Sungjae Im (+700)

Sometimes the chalk is the right play. Im became the consensus betting favorite this week when Patrick Cantlay withdrew, and he has backed up that status with rounds of 66-64. A decorated player with two TOUR wins to his credit, he hasn’t won since the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open – another event where, like this week, players had to go ultra-low.

Im hasn’t quite met his standards in 2024, but he may have made a turn – his T3 at the Travelers Championship was his third top-10 result in his last four starts, and he has four out of six dating back to the Wells Fargo in May. A player of his caliber will eventually break through given enough opportunities, and there’s no doubt that he’s on paper among the best in this field. Im is third this week in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, sixth in SG: Around-the-Green and trails only three players heading into the weekend. It’s a buy situation for me on a player who was +1400 pre-tournament and is now in a far better position.

Michael Thorbjornsen (+3500)

As noted below, I’m not quite buying into a particular up-and-comer, but this is an intriguing price (and situation) for the recent PGA TOUR University valedictorian. Thorbjornsen sits at 11-under, T10 and three shots off the lead after a second-round 64. Like Im, he’s top-10 this week in SG: Off-the-Tee (ninth) and Around the Green (10th) and has made only one bogey through 36 holes. It’s a potent combination for the former Stanford standout who seems poised to waste no time with a learning curve among the pro ranks.

Thorbjornsen showed some significant promise at the Travelers two weeks ago, and while he made an early exit last week in Detroit, he absolutely has the firepower to put up another round in the mid-60s and cut this price in half (or more) heading into the final round with a chance to win.

Fades

Aaron Rai (+350)

Rai came awfully close to a maiden TOUR win last week at Detroit Golf Club, and he’s at it again after a second-round 63 that tied the low round of the day and gave him a share of the lead. Could he go one spot better after last week’s T2 result? Sure. But am I backing him at this price, as the new outright betting favorite? Not against this jam-packed leaderboard.

Rai is doing all the heavy lifting on the greens, leading the field in SG: Putting while picking up nearly eight shots against the field. But that putting prowess is hiding some other deficiencies: He’s 52nd off the tee, barely gaining ground, and worse than that on Approach (56th) and Around the Green (70th). That’s a troubling trend, and one that I’m not sure leaves him with much margin for error during a week where the winner will likely reach or approach 20-under par. There are a lot of options on this leaderboard, but an overwhelming majority of scenarios end with someone other than Rai lifting the trophy. He’s in a great spot if you hopped on the +2200 pre-tournament price, but I’d pass on the option to hop in (or add more) at the current number.

Luke Clanton (a) (+1400)

Could lightning strike twice? It took 33 years for an amateur to win on TOUR, and now Clanton is threatening to become the second to do so in the last seven months. He’s among the logjam at 12-under, two shots off the lead, having followed an opening 63 with a solid 67.

Clanton is making the most of his summer, and he might have been even higher on the board were it not for a double bogey on his 15th hole of the day Friday. But as with Rai, I’m concerned that Clanton’s stat line won’t hold up to the weekend pressures – not to mention the crucible that awaits if he really has a chance to win coming down the stretch. He’s no better than 14th in any of the four main SG: categories and picked up a bunch of ground when he drove the green on the par-4 14th en route to eagle.

Clanton finished T10 last week in Detroit and appears poised for a similar result this week a little further west, but I need to see more from him before I’d look to back his +1400 price with so many other (more seasoned) options still with a great chance to win.

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