Draws and Fades: Denny McCarthy among those looking to chase down Hayden Springer at John Deere Classic

Players wasted no time in going low on the Fourth of July at the John Deere Classic – notably Hayden Springer, who will now look to win for the first time on the PGA TOUR from the pole position.

Springer torched TPC Deere Run in Thursday’s opening round, finishing eagle-birdie to wrap a 12-under 59 that tied the course record and marked the 14th sub-60 round in TOUR history. It’s the second 59 in the last three weeks, following Cameron Young’s sub-60 effort at the Travelers Championship.

Springer, who earned his TOUR card last year via Q-School, takes a two-shot lead into the second round ahead of Finland’s Sami Valimaki. But they had plenty of company deep in red figures, as 14 different players opened with 64 or lower on the par-71 track.

Updated odds to win John Deere Classic (via BetMGM):

• +800: Davis Thompson, Hayden Springer
• +900: Eric Cole
• +1200: Denny McCarthy, Luke Clanton
• +1400: Sami Valimaki
• +2000: Sepp Straka, Adam Svensson, Aaron Rai

It creates a situation where everyone is chasing Springer, but the leaderboard is crowded behind the rookie after just a single round – meaning plenty of value for bettors down the leaderboard.

Here’s a look at the players I’m looking to back heading into the second round, and those I feel are priced too short:

Draws

Denny McCarthy (+1200)

If (when) he breaks through for his first win on TOUR, this could absolutely be the spot. McCarthy has come so close so many times before, notably in April when he lost an overtime shootout to Akshay Bhatia in San Antonio at the Texas Children's Open. McCarthy can go low with the best of them, and he’s off to a solid start with a 7-under 64 that left him T8 and within striking distance of Springer.

McCarthy didn’t have a particular standout stat category, but he did a little bit of everything during a bogey-free effort that was highlighted by an eagle on the par-5 17th. He’s one of the most talented players in the field on paper, and he’s done everything but win thus far in his career. Another 64 on Friday morning, when he plays in the early wave, wouldn’t surprise me and would result in a price far below the current offering of +1100.

Kevin Chappell (+15000)

I get that it’s been a while since the veteran was on the leaderboard. And I understand that Thursday’s 64 came despite negative Strokes Gained figures in both Off-the-Tee and Around-the-Green. But I can’t pass up this price for a player who has won before on TOUR, has shot a 59 on TOUR and is within arm’s reach of the lead.

Chappell has battled injuries in recent years, and he hasn’t cracked the top 10 on TOUR since 2019. He only has one top-25 result this year. He rolled in 153 feet of putts during his opener at TPC Deere Run, including a 57-footer for birdie on No. 7. All that to say that this could very well be an anomaly.

But we’ve seen veterans catch a spark at random times before – think back to Camilo Villegas’ surprise win last fall in Bermuda – and Chappell knows the pressure of a weekend leaderboard, even if it’s been a while. The price is too much of an outlier given what he brings to the table.

Fade

Hayden Springer (+800)

If he goes on to win, it would be an incredible story given his career to this point, as well as the off-course hardships he and his family have endured. But this is a tough spot for the rookie to play the next 54 holes with a target on his back, particularly with how many breaks went his way during Thursday’s remarkable sub-60 effort.

Springer was seventh in SG: Off the Tee and 13th in SG: Approach, certainly solid numbers but not indicative of a runaway. He’s also been in a significant rut this summer, as his T10 finish last week in Detroit ended a run of six straight missed cuts.

Could this be a historical week at the right time, akin to Michael Kim’s runaway victory at this event six years ago? Perhaps. But the far more likely scenario is that Springer comes back to earth over the next 18 to 36 holes while others in close pursuit keep their foot on the gas. This will be a week to remember for Springer, regardless of result, but I’m not buying that he’ll leave the Quad Cities with the trophy.

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