Draws and Fades: With Scottie Scheffler looming, plenty of value on Travelers odds board

We’re not quite back to the “Scottie vs. The Field” discussion that took place last week at the U.S. Open, but we’re not far off.

The world No. 1 got back to his usual stuff Thursday at the Travelers Championship, shooting a 5-under 65 that sharply cut his outright price at BetMGM Sportsbook from +400 to +260. It’s a remarkably short number, especially considering that Scheffler sits T6 and three shots off the lead.

Tom Kim paced the field at TPC River Highlands, carding an 8-under 62 that moved him two shots clear of the 70-man field (reduced from 71 after Byeong-Hun An’s mid-round withdrawal). Kim made six birdies over his last 11 holes but still isn’t even second on the updated odds board – that distinction belongs to reigning PGA champ (and former Travelers winner) Xander Schauffele, who matched Scheffler’s 65.

Updated odds to win Travelers Championship (via BetMGM):

• +260: Scottie Scheffler
• +600: Xander Schauffele
• +650: Tom Kim
• +1200: Collin Morikawa
• +1600: Tony Finau
• +1800: Ludvig Åberg
• +2000: Akshay Bhatia

With two major winners from earlier this year firmly in the mix, the odds fluctuate significantly on the other players around them – even the first-round leader. The field will have one eye on the weather the rest of the way, with second-round tee times moved up an hour to begin at 7:05 a.m. ET in order to avoid afternoon storms. The opener in Cromwell was hot and steamy, but it’s expected to be rainy and soft over the weekend.

Here’s a look at the players I would be looking to add after the opening round, knowing that the course could change over the next 24 hours of this no-cut event:

Draws

Will Zalatoris (+2200)

I nearly made a case for backing Kim, whose red-hot opener trimmed his outright price from +5000 to +700 as he grabbed the lead. But I’m much more intrigued by Zalatoris at more than triple the price, despite his injury woes and missed cut at Pinehurst.

Zalatoris made seven birdies Thursday, including four in a row on Nos. 12-15, and told reporters after the round that he went straight to the range in Connecticut following his early exit from the U.S. Open.

“Sunday I had basically an all-day grind session just to figure out what’s going on,” Zalatoris said. “I got into some bad habits, figured out what I needed to fix, and just kind of dug it out of the dirt.”

It’s a promising sign that Zalatoris both found some answers and has the physical stamina to take on the extra practice. He remains underrated by oddsmakers, both because of his injury woes and his relative lack of hardware (one TOUR win) versus the talent he displays while regularly hanging on major leaderboards. It won’t take long for him to snag a second trophy once he puts the pieces together.

Akshay Bhatia (+2000)

I remain quite impressed with Bhatia’s career progression. Now twice a winner on TOUR, he hung around all weekend at Pinehurst en route to a T16 finish. That came on the heels of a T22 result at the Memorial, and Bhatia is picking a great time to heat back up after a lackluster May.

Bhatia carded four birdies and an eagle despite sitting in the middle of the pack on approach. He was third in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in SG: Putting, the sort of combination that bodes well for the next 54 holes. Bhatia showed just a few months ago at the Valero Texas Open that he can win a shootout, and this is an appetizing price to back him to run it back once more.

Fades

Scottie Scheffler (+260)

I can’t jump in at this price. If you took Scheffler at +400 pre-tournament, a higher price against 70 guys than he had against 155 at the U.S. Open, more power to you. But there are still too many variables in play, not the least of which is the weather forecast, to advise hopping on at this number if you haven’t already.

Scheffler showed us just two weeks ago what he can do in Signature Events, and look no further than the RBC Heritage to see his record on a relatively short track. But Scheffler actually lost strokes in SG: Approach on Thursday, and he’s still facing a board that features plenty of competition – highlighted by Schauffele.

Rickie Fowler (+3300)

I’m just not ready to buy in on the prospect of Fowler stringing four rounds together. Yes, this was a strong start on a course where he has had some success before. But Fowler has basically been on the side of a milk carton since breaking a winless drought nearly a year ago in Detroit.

With his title defense looming next week, he was bogey-free around TPC River Highlands. But he still lost strokes to the field off the tee (57th) and made up a bulk of his ground on the greens (fifth in SG: Putting). I’m not sure that is a recipe for sustained success, especially for a player whose best result in 16 starts this year is a T18 at Harbour Town.

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