Draws and Fades: Scottie Scheffler lurks after Friday rebound at Charles Schwab Challenge

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is back in the mix at the Charles Schwab Challenge as fellow big names failed to pounce on his slow start at Colonial Country Club.

Having blown out to as much as +1600 during an opening round 2-over 72, Scheffler rebounded in the second round with a 5-under 65 to move back into tournament favoritism at +450.

This despite remaining seven shots off the lead as Davis Riley put up a 6-under round of 64 to move to 10-under. Riley was forced to wait to finish his round thanks to a weather delay as a dangerous storm cell hit the Fort Worth, Texas, area but returned to knock in his final three-footer.

Scheffler’s odds shortened considerably thanks to his own great play and the fact the likes of Tony Finau and Brian Harman failed to go low on Friday. Instead the moves were left to be made by Riley, Hayden Buckley, Pierceson Coody and Sungjae Im.

Buckley and Coody moved into a tie for second after rounds of 65 shot them to 8-under for the tournament. Im shot 64 to move to T4 where he was joined by Keegan Bradley (66) and Sepp Straka (66).

Current Open champion Harman and Finau could only muster rounds of 69 to get to 5-under, now five shots off the pace in a tie for seventh. Ryan Fox (67), Kevin Tway (66) and Robby Shelton (68) all joined them through two rounds.

Finau had a miserable day on the greens, ranking 110th in the second round in Strokes Gained: Putting although a late birdie renewed a little hope he can still contend.

Riley sits with Scheffler on the odds board at +450. He missed the cut a year ago but was T4 at Colonial in 2022. This season he had made just half of his cuts in 14 starts prior to this week, with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Open his best result. Riley did win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Nick Hardy in April of 2023 but hasn’t had a top-10 since.

When it comes to Scheffler from here, I’m torn. I don’t like the short odds, but there aren’t that many players between him and the lead and those up top are not proven TOUR winners yet. He won’t go in either column today but the local favorite could certainly surge on Saturday.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook with my thoughts on moves from this point on below.

• +450: Scottie Scheffler (-3, T12)
• +450: Davis Riley (-10, 1st)
• +900: Sepp Straka (-6, T4)
• +1000: Keegan Bradley (-6, T4)
• +1000: Sungjae Im (-6, T4)
• +1200: Tony Finau (-5, T7)
• +1400: Brian Harman (-5, T7)
• +1600: Pierceson Coody (-8, T2)
• +1600: Hayden Buckley (-8, T2)
• +2000: Collin Morikawa (-3, T15)

Draws

Tony Finau +1200

Now I really am putting the kiss of death on my pre-tournament pick. Finau sat here in my “draws” column last night at +700 and he’s now blown out to +1200 so hopefully you didn’t read this until now.

I am going to give him one last chance to get his putting back in order because this is the only real threat holding him back. Finau leads the field in Greens In Regulation through two rounds and is also yet to three-putt … but he’s also struggling to one-putt for the many birdie looks he’s had. I’m banking on him having learned something from overreading the breaks on Friday on these brand-new greens and getting back on track.

He ranks second in Par-3 Scoring, third in Proximity, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and fourth in SG: Approach and Proximity from the rough. Everything comes down to making putts.

Brian Harman +1400

Much like Finau, I am going back to the well on Harman, after being wrong last night. He’s now +1400, after being +800 last night, but surely has his poor round out of the way.

Also like Finau, the putts wouldn’t drop for Harman on Friday, certainly a concern since he wasn’t awesome on the greens in Round 1 either.

Again, mirroring Finau, Harman has avoided three-putts and is playing well on the tough par 3s (ranked T3). He is T4 in GIR and proximity to the hole and is fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. I am banking on his accurate hitting to allow more birdie chances than others over the weekend, and if he can start cashing them in, he will rise up the boards.

Has three previous top 10s at Colonial but hasn’t had a TOUR top 10 since his runner-up effort at THE PLAYERS.

Wildcards

As our Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton pointed out pre-week, Sergio Garcia remains the most recent player (2001) to get his first TOUR win at Colonial Country Club. He’s also the last to prevail in his first appearance in the tournament. So players getting their first win here is NOT common. It is why jumping on Pierceson Coody or Hayden Buckley at +1600 has its dangers.

But I will say this: The trend to winning at Colonial in the past has been to combine SG: Approach with SG: Putting skills. Buckley leads the field this week in SG: Putting and is ninth on SG: Approach. Coody, the grandson of a Masters winner, is third in SG: Putting and seventh in Approach.

Read into this what you will.

Fade

Davis Riley +450

The leader has been epic to this point – including being third in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Putting, the metrics pointed out above to be important here. He also is T1 in GIR, SG: Tee-to-Green, total birdies, sand saves and bogey avoidance.

My problem is this is a huge outlier to his season.

Let’s just take the Strokes Gained stats. Riley is leading Tee-to-Green this week but ranks 170th on the season. He’s third on Approach this week; 158th on the season. Sixth so far this week in SG: Putting but 100th on the season. He’s 21st this week in SG: Around the Green but 101st on the season and 26th Tee-to-Green this week but 176th on the season.

That scares me a lot when you are talking short odds with 36 holes to play. As stated above he hasn’t had a top-10 since winning the Zurich Classic with Nick Hardy over a year ago.