Draws & Fades: Slow start for Scottie Scheffler opens doors at Charles Schwab Challenge

World no. 1 Scottie Scheffler’s slow start at the Charles Schwab Challenge has opened the door for his competitors at Colonial Country Club.

The +275-pre-tournament favorite, who was as short as +150 early in his performance, battled to an almost baffling 2-over 72 to sit seven shots off the pace after the opening round. After two early birdies, the Texan dropped two bogeys on his card before a triple bogey six at the par-3 13th.

It left Scheffler a distant T79, needing a big rebound Friday morning just to make the cut, let alone challenge for the title. Regardless, BetMGM Sportsbook still had Scheffler at +1000 odds. The closest odds to him from anyone at the same spot on the leaderboard was +30000.

Charley Hoffman took the lead with an afternoon 65, defying the gustier conditions of the day to post up alone at 5-under. The WM Phoenix Open runner-up is looking to go one better in Fort Worth.

The morning wave saw a quintet of players posting at 4-under 66, including my pre-tournament outright selection of Tony Finau.

Finau was buoyed by making 102 feet of putts, leaving the question of whether he’s put up a score during a slightly off hitting day and will improve from here, or will his putting revert slightly, leaving his scratchy hitting exposed?

Current Open Champion Brian Harman also shot 66, a bogey-free effort that ended with 10 straight pars after four early birdies. His all-around game was lovely, but it was his approach play that led the way.

Martin Laird, Davis Riley and S.H. Kim were the other morning wave 66s.

Robby Shelton, Hayden Buckley, Pierceson Coody and Callum Tarren are two shots off the pace at 3-under.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook with my thoughts on moves from this point on below.

• +700: Tony Finau (-4, T2)
• +800: Brian Harman (-4, T2)
• +800: Collin Morikawa (-2, T11)
• +1000: Scottie Scheffler (+2, T79)
• +2200: Sepp Straka (-2, T11)
• +2500: Charley Hoffman (-5, 1st)
• +2500: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-2, T11)
• +2800: S.H. Kim (-4, T2)
• +2800: Keegan Bradley (-2, T11)

DRAWS

Tony Finau +700*

I’m almost afraid to list Finau here in this column given the jinx it’s been for me of late but if I loved him before the tournament started it wouldn’t be right to ditch him now. The key for Finau this week was having a good week on the greens and he’s started that way, ranked ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. That’s a significant improvement on his season rank of 158th. He will need to maintain this. I also expect an uptick in his approach play, which ranked 33rd in Round 1 but sits fourth on the season, including leading the field at the PGA Championship last week.

The asterisk * above is there for a reason. Finau is not due back out until Friday afternoon and as such, I expect his number could drift out a little more before he gets started again. The man himself said he’s not the biggest fan of playing early / late.

“I always liked late / early, just because if you're playing well you got a short night, you're back at it seems like pretty fast. Whenever you're early / late it seems like maybe it's two different tournaments you're playing,” Finau said.

“Today was a great day, but it's now another 24 hours before I play tomorrow, so it's almost like a whole other tournament. You take 'em as they come.”

You can hold off and check his number right before he goes out Friday and perhaps get some more value.

Brian Harman +800 *

Much like Finau above, the play is to hold on Harman until close to his afternoon tee time on Friday to perhaps get a little more juice but I still like the Open Champion as a course fit over the next three rounds. His methodical tee-to-green game here (ranked fourth in Round 1) is just what Colonial Country Club orders and he only needs to crank up the putter to a reasonable clip.

He was 45th with the putter on Thursday, down from his season rank of 19 and I think as he learns the new greens here the next few days he could become a separator. Led the field Thursday in GIR, a huge stat for this tournament, and also in Scrambling. Top of the pops also in par-4 scoring, back nine scoring plus bogey and 3-putt avoidance. Has three previous top-10s at Colonial but hasn’t had a TOUR top-10 since his runner-up effort at THE PLAYERS.

“I haven't had the results that I feel like that I probably should have the last few weeks, but I'm playing some pretty good golf and it was nice to get off to a good start,” he said.

Lottery Picks

A combination of SG: Putting and SG: Approach has been the recipe at Colonial Country Club before its renovation. If this is to hold true, the first-round players who ranked highly in both include Martin Laird (+4000) and Hayden Buckley (+12500).

FADE

Scottie Scheffler +1000

Here I go again, tempting fate with the world’s best player. But here’s the thing, this number just isn’t fair to the consumer. I’m hoping any Scheffler fans jumped on the +1600 on offer on Thursday before a late birdie, because 10 to 1, from here, just doesn’t appear worth the risk. And I’m not convinced even 16-1 will work out for you.

Scheffler will absolutely improve his approach game on Friday. The man ranks first on TOUR but on Thursday was 117th in this 132-man field. That won’t happen again, and so you will likely see him grind his way to the weekend even with his B game. But my concern is his 98th in SG: Putting. Of late, on his way to four wins in six starts, his putting has remained in the positive. But at -1.185 Thursday it appears this won’t be the case this week. And that lone issue could ultimately stop him from making a big enough rebound to contend in a serious manner.

Remember Scheffler has plenty of distractions going on, from his upcoming court situation to being at home with his newborn son. A locked-in Scheffler can still win from here, but with bigger fish to fry in the next month, this might be time for him to conserve his energy.