Draws and Fades: Xander Schauffele in familiar territory, Rory McIlroy lurks at PGA Championship

LOUISVILLE, KY. – Xander Schauffele has put himself in position to silence the doubters once more with a blistering record-setting opening to the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club.

A week after surrendering a lead to Rory McIlroy in the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship, recording his eighth top-10 from 12 starts this season (and second runner-up), Schauffele put together a sublime 9-under 62 in Louisville.

It tied the record for the lowest major score in history, a mark he was already part of after his 8-under 62 from last years U.S. Open.

It’s just the fourth 62 in major history, but the first of 9-under par. Schauffele is the first player to do it twice and is also the first person to shoot 62 in PGA Championship history.

Rickie Fowler matched him last June at Los Angeles Country Club (8-under 62) while South African Branden Grace shot 8-under 62 at the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.

The Olympic gold medalist joins McIlroy (9-under 63) at the 2010 Open Championship at St. Andrews and Greg Norman (9-under 63) at the 1996 Masters as the lowest score relative to par in the first round of a major.

His efforts also bested the lowest score relative to par in the first round of a PGA Championship, beating Michael Bradley’s 8-under 63 at Riviera Country Club in 1995.

The sensational bogey-free effort gave the seven-time PGA TOUR winner a three-shot lead over Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala and Mark Hubbard who all put up tidy 65s.

McIlroy is lurking once again, tied fifth with his Ryder Cup teammate Robert MacIntyre at 5-under. Collin Morikawa, Thomas Detry, Tom Hoge, Maverick McNealy and Tom Kim are also at the same score.

Incredibly Scottie Scheffler, who’s last five PGA TOUR starts read 1-1-2-1-1 including his wins at THE PLAYERS and Masters, opened his round with a hole-out eagle from 168-yards.

He forged his way to a round of 67 and is second on the odds boards despite being five shots back.

Rain is forecast for Friday’s second round, likely softening up what is already a very getable golf course. Those who don’t go low are going to be left behind.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook with my take on who to consider for your bets going forward.

• +275: Xander Schauffele (9-under)
• +400: Scottie Scheffler (4-under)
• +500: Rory McIlroy (5-under)
• +1400: Collin Morikawa (5-under)
• +1400: Brooks Koepka (4-under)
• +2200: Sahith Theegala (6-under)
• +2500: Tony Finau (6-under)
• +4000: Bryson DeChambeau (3-under)
• +4000: Max Homa (3-under)

Draws

Rory McIlroy +500

He was my pre-tournament pick to win so why would I jump off now after a pretty decent 5-under 66. What is incredible is McIlroy, who won at Valhalla in 2014, had a really poor day off the tee – usually his strength. McIlroy hit just seven of 14 fairways and ranked 134th in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee – a stat he ranks fourth this season on the PGA TOUR. He made up for the shortfall by being first in SG: Around the Green and a respectable 21st in SG: Approach and 24th in SG: Putting. There is no way McIlroy drives it as poorly from here on out and fresh off back-to-back TOUR wins, he is primed to make a run.

“I thought I got a lot out of my game today,” McIlroy said. “I had a little bit of a scrappy part around the turn there, but overall really happy with… not really happy with how I played but at least happy with the score.”

Brooks Koepka +1400

The defending champion, a three-time PGA Championship winner, managed to post a score without his best stuff. Much like McIlroy, Koepka had some scrappy moments, but still found a way to put his name up on the leaderboard at 4-under. A year ago he opened with a 2-over par round and sat T38 before streaking to victory at Oak Hill. Majors are what bring out his best and I’m not prepared to say he won’t claim a sixth here this week. He ranked sixth in the field in SG: Approach and only faltered a little on the greens, losing -0.381 in SG: Putting, something he can rectify on Friday.

“Just stay patient. That's what majors are all about,” Koepka said. “You can't win it today, but you just try to hang around and give yourself a chance or in a good spot come Sunday.”

Fades

Xander Schauffele +275

This one hurts because I genuinely like the guy, but if you didn’t get on him before the tournament you can’t possibly entertain this number with 54 holes to go. We know he entered the week with a 69.81 scoring average in the opening round of majors, the lowest all-time career first-round scoring average in major championship play among those who have appeared in at least 25 majors (courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau). But yet, he hasn’t won one. Schauffele has been a frequent contender at majors for nearly a decade, recording 12 top-10 finishes in 27 career major starts. This includes runner-up finishes at the 2018 Open Championship and 2019 Masters. But again. Hasn’t won one.

Last week he started hot but was run down by McIlroy. He looked a winner at THE PLAYERS but was run down by Scheffler. He has played in Sunday’s final group four times this season with no wins. And the list of chasers behind him now at Valhalla has some huge gravitas. Would I like him to finally close the door? Sure. Can he? Absolutely. But am I willing to say it’s a lock right now? Not at all.

“I look at every tough spot now as another opportunity, try to flip it into a positive and make myself want to earn it versus getting scared of the moment. Just embrace it, and really earn it and all the hard work you’ve been doing is worth it. Kinda taking that mentality on,” Schauffele said.

Scottie Scheffler +400

Relax! I know what I’m doing. This number on Scheffler is diabolical for a player five shots back who most likely won’t get to see the course at its softest after forecast rain in the second round. Is Scheffler close enough to win? Yes. But is the juice worth the squeeze on these odds? No way.

The only way to play the world No. 1 is to ride the live rollercoaster. Hopefully you heeded the Golfbet advice of waiting until his tee time if you wanted some Scheffler action as he drifted from his +400 starting price to +600. He promptly eagled the opening hole to drop the number fast!

Much like that advice, I’d once again wait if you’re not already on him. If he goes low, you miss the boat, but McIlroy, Schauffele and Co. will still have the chance to pull away on a wet course. I think a revisit after 36 holes is in order, or if he drifts hard early in his round Friday and you see double digits, maybe you pounce hoping for a fightback.