Draws and Fades: Cream at top leaves trepidatious value for chasers

The oddsmakers slated Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele as the players to beat this week at the Wells Fargo Championship, and the star duo played true to their billing in the opening round at Quail Hollow Club.

Schauffele, the runner-up a year ago, opened with a tidy 7-under 64 to set a hot pace and establish a three-shot lead. It turns out the one time I don’t pick him as an outright option this year, the shackles come off and he plays carefree great golf!

McIlroy was also a pacesetter early before some late stumbles left him to settle for a 4-under 67. A three-time champion at Quail Hollow, McIlroy was threatening a super low day at 5-under through seven holes, only to split four bogeys and three birdies from that point.

Collin Morikawa continued his recent upswing in form to join McIlroy at 4-under, as did Swedish veteran Alex Noren.

Former event champion Jason Day and 2017 PGA Champion at Quail Hollow Justin Thomas were joined by Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka, Lee Hodges, Russell Henley and Taylor Moore at 3-under.

As expected, the odds for the top duo have been slashed dramatically from their opening numbers with Schauffele now a favorite at +200 and McIlroy down to +360.

Before we get too deep in the weeds - chances are, your winner comes from these two. They are quality players who have great games built to this course. McIlroy is a proven winner at Quail Hollow and Schauffele has the stats pack to produce rounds like he did Thursday.

But the fact is, while the players are “draws” from here, their odds are “fades.” With 54 holes to go, placing wagers on short odds becomes somewhat irresponsible. With 18 holes to go, should there be a close battle between these two; absolutely you can pick your horse and watch them sprint. But with 54 holes to go, the value isn’t there. Hopefully many of you got on at the better starting odds.

Instead, the “value”, comes in trying to pick a chaser at higher odds you think has a chance to push back into the contest against the top of the pack.

So keep this in mind when reading my draws in this column. I’m not super gung-ho they will win this week, rather I believe they are potentially the best chance of the chase pack to apply some pressure to the chalk up top. I fully expect Schauffele to stick it to me by winning when I’ve failed to pick him.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +200: Xander Schauffele (7-under)
• +360: Rory McIlroy (4-under)
• +1000: Collin Morikawa (4-under)
• +1600: Justin Thomas (3-under)
• +2000: Alex Noren (4-under)
• +2200: Max Homa (2-under)
• +2500: Jason Day (3-under)
• +3000: Sungjae Im (3-under); Russell Henley (3-under)

Draws

Collin Morikawa +1000

During the recent Masters Tournament, I was adamant the contending Morikawa would not contend for the green jacket throughout the week given his backslide in results prior. And while ultimately, I was correct as he didn’t win, he did plant a seed that he might be on the climb back. When he backed up that T3 with a ninth-place result at the RBC Heritage, I started to believe. And when I heard he is back with coach Rick Sessinghaus, I was sold. On Thursday Morikawa was inside the top 14 in SG: Off the Tee, Approach and Putting and while that’s a hard standard to maintain, he’s a two-time major winner who has the pedigree to chase the lead even if his record at Quail Hollow is a missed cut a year ago.

Alex Noren +2000

I know this guy has had an entire career to win on the PGA TOUR and hasn’t closed but his recent form should have you at least considering the +2000 juice on offer for a man currently T2 on the leaderboard and with 10 DP World Tour titles to his name. Noren ranked seventh in SG: Off the Tee and fourth in SG: Approach on Thursday and was also a tidy 13th in SG: Around the Green. If he can improve his putting just a touch over the next three rounds, he could find himself fighting for the title even if his previous record at Quail Hollow is below average. Noren is coming off a third-place finish in THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Fade

Remember the odds on Schauffele and McIlroy are fades, but the players are not.

Jason Day +2500

For a risk/reward play, Day could actually be your guy (and my Aussie mate will enjoy me throwing his name up here as he loves to fly under the radar and to prove me wrong). But the finish to his round scared me more than the opening impressed me. I’d have preferred to see Day around the +3500 to +4000 range, a number he would have been at if not for a previous victory here in 2018. Day was 3-under through two holes after a chip-in eagle and birdie start, but the former champion at Quail Hollow had to rely on his short game on and around the greens to keep him in the mix Thursday.

He ranks second in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and eighth in putting, but is in the middle of the pack at 34th in SG: Off the Tee. He was the only player in the top 11 to lose strokes to the field on approach. Round 2 will be his turning point, one way or the other, but I can’t help but think back to Saturday of the 2017 PGA Championship on this course, when still in the hunt for the title Day made a quadruple-bogey 8 on the 18th hole.