Draws and Fades: Ludvig Åberg leads betting board, lurks on leaderboard at RBC Heritage

Ludvig Åberg is one of the few players in the RBC Heritage who was playing his first competitive round at Harbour Town Golf Links, but you wouldn’t know it as the young Swede stormed to the top of the betting boards after the opening round.

Åberg shot a 5-under 66 on Thursday to be part of a six-way tie for fourth place, three shots behind pacesetter J.T. Poston. A runner-up at the Masters on debut, Åberg is now the +650 betting favorite to claim a second PGA TOUR win at +650.

He’s stolen favoritism from the man who bested him at Augusta National, as Scottie Scheffler battled to a 2-under 69 to be six shots off the pace. It left the world No. 1 at +850, rare numbers of late as he started at +400.

Given we haven’t seen a player win the direct week after winning a major since Tiger Woods in 2006, I won’t be advocating for Scheffler to burn through this pack over the next three days, especially after he ranked 62nd of 69 in Strokes Gained: Putting. But it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.

Poston, who Golfbet’s Will Gray identified as the best longshot at +6600 prior to the tournament, was brilliant on the way to his 8-under 63. He’s now two in front of Seamus Power and Collin Morikawa. At +750 I’m holding another round on the Postman hoping for a similar number with another round in the books as others mount their chase.

Morikawa continued his form on from contending at the Masters, lending weight to the theory he might finally be out of the ball-striking funk he experienced pre-turning up to Augusta National.

If it is the old Morikawa, the +650 on offer might be great value. But if he has any regression, well then, not so much. I’m going to hold off either side for one more round.

Joining Åberg at 5-under are Austin Eckroat, Mackenzie Hughes, Sahith Theegala, Patrick Rodgers and Sepp Straka while Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, Russell Henley, Tom Hoge, Stephan Jaeger and Adam Hadwin all sit 4-under.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +650: Ludvig Åberg (5-under, T4)
• +650: Collin Morikawa (6-under, T2)
• +750: J.T. Poston (8-under, first)
• +850: Scottie Scheffler (2-under, T26)
• +1200: Rory McIlroy (4-under, T10)
• +1200: Patrick Cantlay (4-under, T10)
• +1800: Sahith Theegala (5-under, T4)
• +2000: Cameron Young (4-under, T10)
• +2800: Russell Henley (4-under, T10)

DRAWS

Ludvig Åberg +650

At the end of the day Harbour Town is all about producing in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and given Åberg cruised to a 66 while ranking fourth in the field in the metric that matters, I have a feeling he will continue his good play. A winner not far away at The RSM Classic last fall, Åberg clearly feels at home. He’s coming off his runner-up at the Masters, part of seven straight top-25s on the PGA TOUR.

“Tee to green it was really good," Åberg said. "Obviously, it makes it a lot easier if you're good off the tee here at this golf course because you kind of avoid the trees and all the angles. Did that very well today, then you can be a little bit more aggressive into the greens, but still can't really force anything. Felt like we did that very well today, and hopefully, we'll be able to keep that up the rest of the week."

My fear in the early part of the week was potential fatigue from contending at Augusta but he believes he’s young enough for that not to matter.

“My focus shifted right when I got here," he added. "We were trying to make sure that last week was last week and this week was this week. I'd like to think that I'm young and I'll be able to handle it, but yes, I think I'll crash for a few days next week when I'm not playing.

“I love playing back-to-back weeks. I think it's great. I feel like I'm getting better and better as I play on. But obviously last week was very, very memorable.”

Cameron Young +2000

Running third in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green (and 18th on the season) Young represents some value in the chasing pack. Also ranked third in SG: Approach there is a good chance Young can maintain, and perhaps improve what he did Thursday. He was T3 here in 2022 and is still chasing his first PGA TOUR win.

Russell Henley +2800

Leaning back into the SG: Tee-to-Green stat I couldn’t help but notice Henley was leading the field on Thursday in the metric. His 4-under 67 was bogey-free on Thursday and he has a T9 and T19 in his last three visits here. I’m not completely sold on him being able to improve his putting enough (58th on Thursday) to get to the very top but at +2800 he is again, much like Young, with potential value to climb the boards.

FADE

Patrick Cantlay +1200

Sneaking into the mix on Thursday was horse for the course Cantlay. While his previous results here read 3-2-CUT-T3-T7-T3 I’m still going to stick him, and more to the point this odds number, in the fade category for now. I’m banking on the fact his course comfort almost willed him to a 67 – as did some knowledgeable putting – but that his ball striking isn’t completely back on point yet. He ranked 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green but has been 121st this season. He also has some chasing to do, and his final-round scoring average is 73.57 this season.