Draws and Fades: Bet on Akshay Bhatia closing it out in Texas

With a four-shot cushion heading into Sunday's final round in San Antonio, Akshay Bhatia is trying to capture is second PGA TOUR victory at the Valero Texas Open, and do so in rare wire-to-wire fashion.

Bhatia was a winner last season at the Barracuda Championship in Truckee, California, but a win here at the Valero will not only extend his TOUR card and collect 500 valuable FedExCup points, but also springboard him into next week's field at the Masters. Bhatia qualified for and made the cut at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines but otherwise, the 22-year-old hasn’t competed in the major championships.

Heading into Saturday's third round, the odds on Bhatia to win had dipped overnight from +140 to +135 with BetMGM Sportsbook. Heading into Sunday, currently at 15-under par, he is now -350 to get it done.

Denny McCarthy, seeking his first TOUR victory, is in second at 11-under. Another three shots separates McCarthy from Brendon Todd while Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Henley sit at 7-under. Ludvig Åberg is at 6-under and four players round out the top-10 on the leaderboard at 5-under, including Alex Noren and pre-tournament favorite, Rory McIlroy.

McIlroy began his Saturday in San Antonio six shots off the lead and was the second favorite at +600 to win the Valero Texas Open. He too began his Saturday with a double-bogey and his price quickly doubled to +1200. At the conclusion of Saturday's action, McIlroy dipped to into triple-digit territory at +10000 going into Sunday's finale.

It looks as if Friday is going to serve as the most difficult day as far as weather conditions. Winds died down somewhat on Saturday and they are expected to calm even more so on Sunday. Some showers may soften up the golf course overnight and the forecast is calling for winds to max out around 10mph.

Not only is a four-shot lead a huge factor for Bhatia but benign conditions are as well. If the elements are going to make it tough for Bhatia to give any strokes back, the chasers are at an even bigger disadvantage.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• -350: Akshay Bhatia (15-under, first)
• +400: Denny McCarthy (11-under, second)
• +3300: Brendon Todd (8-under, third)
• +3300: Hideki Matsuyama (7-under, T4)
• +5000: Russell Henley (7-under, T4)
• +6600: Ludvig Åberg (6-under, sixth)
• +10000: Rory McIlroy (5-under, T11)
• +25000: Alex Noren (5-under, T11)
• +50000: Jordan Spieth (3-under, T17)

DRAWS

Akshay Bhatia (-350)

It feels like very risky business to lay such a price with 18 holes left to play but the truth is, it is probably the best value number on the board heading into Sunday. The -350 odds imply roughly a 78% chance of probability. It makes sense, given what is in front of him, that Bhatia would go on to win this event close to eight out of 10 times. He is No. 1 in this field or SG: Approach and Greens in Regulation. He ranks fifth in SG: Off the Tee and is 19th for SG: Putting. Even if the putting falls off slightly, which it did during Friday's round, the ball-striking has been too good to take him too far off course. He's led the field in GIR from day one. If that continues, he can probably two-putt his way around this course on Sunday and still book his trip to Georgia next week.

Russell Henley (+5000)

From a price perspective, this is probably not long enough - again, given the situation so heavily in favor of Bhatia. But Henley, in my eyes, has the best chance of putting together an outlier-type low round and challenging the leader. He's been incredibly steady, shooting rounds of 69-69-71. The only area in which he has really been lacking is in SG: Around the Green. If that were to improve dramatically on Sunday, which is very possible, he has a chance to make a charge. If one is going to get involved prior to the final round, my top recommendation is Bhatia but Henley feels like a long shot that has excellent potential upside with a price big enough that is worth a small flyer.

FADE

Rory McIlroy (+10000)

I would not recommend having visions of grandeur here and expect any miracles out of McIlroy on Sunday. It was a question mark, pre-tournament, how focused he would be to win here this week with another crack at the career grand slam on tap next week. McIlroy has performed well, as he often does the week prior to a major championship - but now, winning this tournament is no longer realistic and McIlroy knows that. This may be where the "tune-up" for next week truly kicks in - working on some things, trying to straighten out any kinks he's feeling in his game, and getting out of Dodge and on to Augusta, Georgia, as soon as possible. Yes, he might play fine on Sunday but I can't imagine his slim chances will translate into the final round grabbing his full attention. When McIlroy is near the top of a leaderboard, we are always paying a premium because of his star-power and popularity. Even at +10000, the situation is no different this week as I estimate his price ought to be closer to three times this number.