TOUR title, more on the line for Akshay Bhatia & Co. in Texas

Windy conditions at TPC San Antonio on Friday kept Akshay Bhatia in check after his nine-under 63 in Round 1, but the young PGA TOUR star still increased his lead at the Valero Texas Open.

Bhatia shot a much tamer 2-under 70 to move to 11-under, extending his three-shot overnight advantage to five strokes above the rest. Only two rounds in and it’s hard to think the young lefty isn’t dreaming of not only his second PGA TOUR win, (but his first full-field triumph to go with his 2023 Barracuda Championship) but also securing an invite down Magnolia Lane for the Masters.

Should Bhatia finish off the victory he will become the first player to participate in the Drive, Chip and Putt competition as a child and later in life make it to the big event at Augusta National.

Before we anoint the 22-year-old we must remember a wire-to-wire victory is never easy, even if you have a five-stroke lead entering the weekend. The closest chasers include Denny McCarthy, who was able to put together a round of 70 in the windier conditions of the afternoon wave, plus Brendon Todd and Russell Henley.

McCarthy is arguably as determined as Bhatia as he chases a first PGA TOUR win and could easily feel his game is far better than results have shown. He is already set to make his Masters debut next week, but what better way to boost your first-time jitters then by walking in fresh off your first PGA TOUR victory? If McCarthy can keep the pedal down in round three, he is a scary man to have nipping at your heels late on a Sunday.

Lurking in solo-fifth after a solid 70, six shots back of Bhatia, is superstar Rory McIlroy. He spoke extensively with Smylie Kaufman on the telecast about the importance of competing late on Sunday the week before a major to test where your games at. No one has more pressure for success in Augusta than McIlroy who is still a green jacket shy of the career grand slam. And perhaps nothing would give him more confidence to achieve that feat than putting together a spectacular weekend to steal a win from Bhatia and the field.

Tommy Fleetwood and Webb Simpson, two seasoned veterans, are also within striking distance at 4-under. Fleetwood is still chasing his first PGA TOUR win which brings plenty of motivation for the multiple-time DP World Tour winner. The Englishman will leave it all out there and do what he can to grab that elusive victory. Simpson, a former U.S Open winner and seven-time TOUR winner hasn’t won since 2020. A win would also help him avoid his first back-to-back Masters absence since 2010-11.

The forecast for the weekend shows winds coming down, so there’s a good chance we could see some chaos on moving day.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +130: Akshay Bhatia (-11, 1st)
• +650: Rory McIlroy (-5, 5th)
• +900: Russell Henley (-6, T2)
• +1200: Denny McCarthy (-6, T2)
• +1400: Brendon Todd (-6, T2)
• +2200: Tommy Fleetwood (-4, T6)
• +2500: Jordan Spieth (-3, T10)
• +3000: Corey Conners (-3, T10)
• +4500: Adam Schenk (-4, T6)

DRAWS

Denny McCarthy +1200

McCarthy was sitting at +700 until an unforced final-hole bogey on the easy par-5 18th saw him shoot up to +1200. This shift could actually represent serious value. McCarthy has had a decent 2024 campaign, making seven out of eight cuts, but he’ll be the first to tell you he wants, and expects, more. One of the hottest players on TOUR in 2023, McCarthy is overdue for a win having logged 10 top-10 finishes, including a playoff loss to Viktor Hovland at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.

Russell Henley +900

Henley is third in Strokes Gained: Approach through two rounds and appears to be back in form. We’ve seen him be a threat on weekends before, yet he hasn’t finished off the job since November 2022 at the World Wide Technology Championship. If he can sniff a chance of victory, he’ll at least be in the mix come Sunday.

FADE

Rory McIlroy +650

The 24-time PGA TOUR winner has the second shortest odds to win behind Bhatia and for good reason being world No. 2. The concern for me, is his mind could easily wander to Augusta. With more and more young talent coming through the world of golf, this could be the last time the 34-year-old enters the Masters this high in the world rankings. Personally, I believe this to be true and I sense McIlroy knows this may be his last great chance to get that green jacket. While others remain focused on Valero Texas Open week, I worry McIlroy isn’t. With that in mind I see chasing down six shots a tough ask.