Who presents value with Scottie Scheffler too short to back, too good to fade

Scottie Scheffler jumped right back on the horse in his home state, backing up his wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS Championship with a 5-under 65 to open the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

The bogey-free effort from the world No. 1 left Scheffler just one shot off the lead held by 2023 Valspar Championship winner Taylor Moore and rookie Wilson Furr. Moore’s 64 started with a bogey but an eagle and five birdies pushed him to top spot. Furr joined from the afternoon wave with a similar setup, his eagle coming from 120 yards.

Joe Highsmith and Davis Riley joined Scheffler at 5-under while Mackenzie Hughes, Aaron Rai, Alejandro Tosti, Adam Svensson and Beau Hossler all posted 66s.

Scheffler who started a +275 heavy favorite to grab a third straight TOUR win, is now +130 to win at Memorial Park Golf Course, an almost ridiculous, yet still understandable number, with 54 holes to play.

Not only is Scheffler in great form, but he holds the course record of 62 at Memorial Park and has a resume that stands tall over any of his nearest competitors. He was able to score despite being a few shades below his usual ball-striking best, an ominous sign if he was to ramp things back up in the next three days.

Despite the fact he should go on to win, anything can happen in golf, especially over three rounds. It is this notion that means I can’t advocate drawing the superstar at this number, but nor can I suggest he’s a fade.

Instead, it’s time to look at others who might be worth a tiny investment at better odds or shift our focus, at least tonight, to the place markets, head-to-heads, and other props you can find.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook for the outright market:

• +130: Scottie Scheffler (-5, T3)
• +1000: Taylor Moore (-6, T1)
• +1600: Mackenzie Hughes (-4, T6)
• +2000: Beau Hossler (-4, T6)
• +2500: Aaron Rai (-4, T6)
• +2800: Patrick Rodgers (-3, T11)
• +3300: Wyndham Clark (E, T54)
• +3500: Sahith Theegala (E, T54)
• +3500: Tony Finau (-1, T35)

Outright draw

Mackenzie Hughes +1600

The Canadian is in a purple patch having contended last week at the Valspar Championship for a T3 and now continuing to a 66 in the opening round. Catching and passing Scheffler will be no easy feat but Hughes is putting beautifully and while he keeps rolling the rock he can make jumps up the leaderboard. The Presidents Cup remains a huge carrot for him.

Outright fade

Taylor Moore +1000

The leader put it together in the opening round, ranking fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, seventh in SG: Tee to Green and fifth in SG: Putting. But given he ranks 54th, 48th, and most alarmingly 115th on the season in the same metrics we can expect a little regression as the pressure to remain up top intensifies. While he was a winner last season he hasn’t had a top-10 since August last year.

Place draw

Aaron Rai (+150 Top 10 via FanDuel or DraftKings)

Hopefully, you read my advice on Rai earlier in the week and were on the place markets with the Englishman at better odds. But even if you aren’t you can think about him with 54 holes to go at modest odds. If you’re feeling brave there is +350 for him to finish in the top five. For Rai to play well, he needs to maintain decent putting to go with his all-around approach game. Currently, he ranks ninth in the field in SG: Putting so that’s a good sign. He was T19 and T7 in his previous Memorial Park efforts.

Place fade

Adam Svensson (+240 Top 10 via FanDuel or DraftKings)

We had Canadian love above but I’m expecting a little regression from his countryman. Svensson opened with a 66 and currently sits T6 on the back of being third in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Tee to Green. So far, he’s hitting the ball into the greens nicely but this is way above his season rank of 69 and 89 respectively not to mention he’s missed five cuts in his last eight starts and has only had one under-par second round in all of those. Last week he started with a 66 only to back it up with a 72 and eventually fade to T49.

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