Case for and against: How contenders can win – or lose – THE PLAYERS

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – One round remains at TPC Sawgrass' Stadium Course and the contenders have been whittled down to a handful at THE PLAYERS Championship.

Xander Schauffele surged past overnight leader Wyndham Clark with a 7-under 65, sending him to 17-under and a one-shot lead.

U.S. Open champion Clark was left to rue a horrific chunked wedge on the infamous island green 17th hole, which surrendered a part of the lead. His round of 70 put him one behind at 16-under.

Open champion Brian Harman flashed up an 8-under 64 to move to 15-under in third place, while former U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick (68) birdied four of his last five holes to move into a tie for fourth at 13-under. He was joined there by Maverick McNealy (68).

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler birdied his final three holes, and Sahith Theegala had two birdies and an eagle in his final four to get to 12-under and remain a chance.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook:

• +120: Xander Schauffele -17
• +300: Wyndham Clark -16
• +550: Brian Harman -15
• +1100: Scottie Scheffler -12
• +1400: Matt Fitzpatrick -13
• +2500: Maverick McNealy -13
• +3300: Sahith Theegala -12
• +10000: Rory McIlroy -9, Hideki Matsuyama -10

Here is the case for, and the case against, the players I believe still have a chance to win on Sunday.

XANDER SCHAUFFELE (+120, 17-under, 1st)

Case for: Schauffele was able to shake off an early short birdie miss on the opening green and produce a bogey-free 7-under 65 to wrestle control of the tournament. The Californian with seven prior PGA TOUR wins ranks inside the top 18 of all Strokes Gained statistics this week and appeared to have his full focus and steel dialed in.

He said: “I'm going to go to the range right now and try and clean up some of those missed fairways on the back nine. When you hit a lot of fairways out here you can get some scoring clubs in your hand, and with the greens being receptive you can fire at some pins. It could be low tomorrow, but for the most part I'm going to try and enjoy myself and stay in my lane.”

Case against: Short of his T2 on debut at TPC Sawgrass in 2018, Schauffele’s results since here read CUT-CUT-CUT-T19. Ranked 51st in driving accuracy, he’s relying on being first in Scrambling to keep things together. Another possible concern is his form as a front runner. Schauffele has held the 54-hole lead six times on the PGA TOUR in individual events and only turned two of those occasions into victory. He points out, they were the last two times – at the 2022 Travelers Championship and 2022 Genesis Scottish Open. He also closed with the lead with partner Patrick Cantlay at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and turned a 54-hole lead at the Olympics into a gold medal.

WYNDHAM CLARK (+300, 16-under, 2nd)

Case for: Contrary to his scratchy effort on Saturday, which saw him relinquish an early five-shot lead, Clark has been a giant killer in big events in the last year or so. He destroyed Schauffele in a final-round battle at last season’s Wells Fargo Championship and held off Rory McIlroy and others to win the U.S. Open last June. Clark still ranks first in the field in SG: Putting despite some regression in the third round and will be hungry to atone for his mistakes. Has already won this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and is coming off a runner up finish at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

He said: “Everyone kind of has one round where they have to really grind it out and make those par putts and bogey putts or whatever it is. I felt like that was today. I'm hoping tomorrow I'll wake up laser locked-in focused and can go have an awesome round and hopefully have a great finish here.”

Case against: Clark has never been a factor at TPC Sawgrass before this season, with results reading DQ-CUT-CUT-T27. He clearly didn’t have his best stuff on Saturday and will have to sleep trying not to think about a shot normally seen by 15 handicappers on the par-3 17th island green, chunking a wedge into a watery grave.

BRIAN HARMAN (+550, 15-under, 3rd)

Case for: After a slow start of even par on Thursday, The Open champion has been lights out shooting 65-64 with 17 birdies and an eagle. He certainly has huge momentum heading to the final round and ranks third in SG: Approach, the key stat at TPC Sawgrass. At fourth in SG: Putting as well, he becomes a serious contender on Sunday. He has three career top-10s at THE PLAYERS including a T3 just three years ago.

Case against: Harman’s final-round scoring average at TPC Sawgrass is 72.25, which won’t cut it if he has designs on winning. He’s losing strokes to the field around the green, so he will need to maintain his approach efforts and make sure he doesn’t fall too far behind the contenders off the tee where he gives up distance.

MATT FITZPATRICK (+1400, 13-under, T4)

Case for: Fitzpatrick appeared to be a non-factor for most of Saturday but heads to Sunday buoyed from the momentum of four birdies in his final five holes. Leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee, the Englishman is also eighth in SG: Putting, giving him confidence of a Sunday surge. He is a proven winner in tough conditions, claiming the U.S. Open in 2022.

Case against: A T9 in 2021 is his best result at THE PLAYERS, and he’s missed the cut the last two years. No Englishman has ever won THE PLAYERS Championship, and reeling in four shots is no easy task in just 18 holes. Holes 4 through 6 have hurt him, playing them 5-over in his three rounds. This will need to change Sunday.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (+1100, 12-under, T6)

Case for: The world No. 1 is just that… the world No. 1. He kept his title defense chances alive with three late birdies, and while five shots are a lot to reel in, he has the talent and the pedigree to do so. Fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and third SG: Off-the-Tee show he is still hitting the ball well enough if he can make a run of early putts. Scheffler is coming off victory last week and TPC Sawgrass success last year.

Case against: He clearly has some neck discomfort that he’s able to play through, but it could just be enough to hold him back from a big charge. Scheffler will also need to make more than his fair share of putts to win, and while he did so last week at Bay Hill, this is still a huge ask for him. At 40th this week in SG: Putting, it seems unlikely.

He said: “Basically when I get the club to about halfway back, I start feeling a lot of pain in my neck. So, from here to there it's very difficult to get the club back. First is, curving the ball right to left with longer clubs is very difficult, just because I can't get fully turned back. Overall, I'm just using my hands a lot, trying to hit shots, I would describe it as kind of slapping it around out there is kind of what I'm doing. Just using my hands as much as I can, and just trying to slap it around, get it up there somewhere near the green and hopefully get up-and-down or make some putts.”