Draws & Fades: Watch for Min Woo Lee to cook up final-round rally at Cognizant

Moving Day played true to its name, as the logjam at the top of the leaderboard at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches finally showed some separation. Shane Lowry, David Skinns and Austin Eckroat sit tied at the top at 13-under, three shots clear of the rest of the field. All three climbed from greater than +1000 odds to start the day, and now each find themselves well below that number.

Updated odds to win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (via BetMGM Sportsbook):

• +175: Shane Lowry (-13)
• +350: Austin Eckroat (-13)
• +800: David Skinns (-13)
• +1200: Min Woo Lee (-10)
• +2500: Victor Perez (-10)
• +2800: Kevin Yu (-10)
• +3300: Jacob Bridgeman (10)
• +3500: Martin Laird (-10)
• +4000: Rory McIlroy (-7)

Lowry is the outright favorite and by a significant margin. That is not without reason. Outside of being a star on TOUR, he is a true horse for this course, having a T5 and solo second finish here in his last two starts. On top of that he’s No. 1 in SG: Approach and 18th in SG: Putting this week. The worry for Lowry is his driving, as he sits at 38th in the field for SG: Off-the-Tee, a stat where his fellow co-leaders have a considerable edge.

Eckroat was the last to get into the clubhouse, knowing he needed birdie on 18 to hold a share of the lead heading into Sunday. Along with Lowry, Eckroat is showing some fantastic play with his irons, ranking 16th in the field in SG: Approach. The putter and driver are the difference makers and why the oddsmakers aren’t giving you too much value on an Eckroat victory. He’s fifth SG: Off the Tee and seventh SG: Putting, two stats that if he can keep up in Sunday’s final round, may be too tough for Lowry and Skinns to beat.

Then there’s Skinns, the 42 year-old Englishman who stands out as the true big shocker. The +60000 pre-tournament underdog via BetMGM finds himself in a share of the lead heading into Sunday. Four years ago he was a food delivery driver and now he’s in the final pairing at PGA National with hopes of a victory (truly an amazing story). Now as great of a story it would be, the +800 number should tell you something. He’s 37th in SG: Approach, which is the fourth-lowest rank out of the top 10 players on the leaderboard. Then there’s his putting. As you can expect when an unproven player appears high on a leaderboard, it usually means he’s been putting out of his mind. He’s second in the field in SG: Putting, which is a stat that we usually look to fade in the later rounds of tournaments when they come from an unproven player because in most cases it is more likely than not, unsustainable. The glimmer of light has been his driver which has him eighth in the field in SG: Off the Tee. If he can keep the putter hot, while continuing to gain strokes off the tee, we may have one of the best comeback stories ever on our hands at PGA National.

Draws

Austin Eckroat (+350)

I’m really impressed with the way he’s been able to putt and drive the ball this week. We’ve known he has a great iron game, but by improving on these other two areas at a notoriously challenging course on TOUR, it shows me this guy is ready to win. He’s also no newcomer to Sunday battles with TOUR vets. Last year at the AT&T Byron Nelson he fell one shot short of Jason Day who bested him with a mind-blowing final round of 62 vs Eckroat’s 65. This time he won’t let it slip and out-duels his elders to grab his first PGA TOUR victory.

Min Woo Lee (+1200)

With how PGA National has played in the past, I’m not ruling out a come-from-behind winner tomorrow. Lee looked like the guy to beat early on Friday, and even matched Skinns and Lowry today with a third-round 66. As hungry as anyone, Lee lurking while only three strokes back is a worthwhile play, not only at this number, but in a final round with some unproven names ahead of him. All these ingredients may just be the perfect recipe for Lee to cook up his first W.

Fade

Shane Lowry (+175)

Researching the field on Monday and making my Expert Picks on Tuesday, Shane Lowry was always top of mind. However, I chose him for a Top-10 finish and not for a win because I didn’t trust he’d shown me enough lately to break through and win. I am sticking to my rationale that his lack of reps (especially reps late in final rounds) will show and Lowry will fall short tomorrow afternoon. To add more cause for concern, his driver may give him fits and his field-leading SG: Approach rank will be unsustainable throughout four rounds at the beast that is PGA National.

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