Draws & Fades: Back Austin Eckroat over Bud Cauley amid crowded Cognizant leaderboard

What a difference a day makes.

Only 23 players out of 144 in the field shot over par in Thursday's opening round at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. That number nearly tripled on Friday, as the wind kicked up and aided in 62 players shooting over par in Round 2 before play was suspended because of darkness.

Like last week at the half-way point of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, we have ourselves another logjam at the top of the leaderboard. Bud Cauley is your leader at 11-under after putting together rounds of 66 and 65. Austin Eckroat and Garrick Higgo are each one shot back. Another 10 players make up the rest of the top 10 on the leaderboard, with nobody further than three shots off the pace. Another nine players round out the top 20, with nobody further back than five shots off the lead. Lurking just outside the top 20 are some big names including Matt Fitzpatrick, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, and the defending champion, Chris Kirk.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy is a part of the group tied for sixth place at 8-under, along with Shane Lowry, Cameron Young and last week's champion, Jake Knapp.

Updated odds to win Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• +450: Rory McIlroy (-8)
• +900: Cameron Young (-8)
• +1000: Bud Cauley (-11), Austin Eckroat (-10)
• +1200: Shane Lowry (-8)
• +1600: Garrick Higgo (-10), Kevin Yu (-9)
• +1800: Jake Knapp (-8)
• +2200: Victor Perez (-9)
• +2500: Matthieu Pavon (-7), Andrew Novak (-8)

The 33-year old Cauley, was born not too far up the Florida coast in Daytona Beach and now resides in Palm Beach Gardens. He'll be seeking his first-ever PGA TOUR win in front of the hometown crowd. To this point, Cauley has been getting it done by hitting greens in regulation as he currently ranks fourth in this field for such, hitting 30 of 36 greens. With the six greens he's missed, he's scrambled to get up and down five out of six times - and he is No. 2 in SG: Putting, gaining over five shots on the field with the flat stick.

The wind is still expected to be a factor on Saturday with the forecast calling for steady breezes up to 15 mph. Sunday ought to be a bit calmer, but there is a chance of thunderstorms.

With some of the stars in this field within a half-dozen shots of the lead with 36 holes to go, they are not to be discarded. Those players looking for their first TOUR win make up the majority top 30+ players on the leaderboard, so we could see a tremendous amount of volatility on Moving Day. And then you throw in the weather. It looks like we could be in for a wild weekend at the first stop on the Florida Swing.

After tapping Knapp at the halfway point last week in Mexico, here’s a look at the players I’m looking to add heading into the third round at PGA National:

Draws

Austin Eckroat (+1000)

I may have been early to the party on Eckroat, making him one of my pre-tournament plays to win it last week in Mexico, but the reasoning remains the same as he is a very talented player. What I like especially about his situation here, halfway home, is that his iron play has been excellent. He is currently fourth in this field for SG: Approach and second in Greens in Regulation. On top of that, he ranks 27th in SG: Putting. Very good but not crazy good. If his iron play stays consistent, he should be in the mix. His putting could cool off a little bit and he'd probably still be okay. The putting still has room to improve too - so I like how he's positioned himself so far, heading into the weekend.

Matthieu Pavon (+2500)

Pavon is a player I landed on pre-tournament this week and I did so primarily because of his excellent current form, his ball-striking prowess and his solid short game. Coming into this event, Pavon ranked seventh in this field for SG: Ball Striking, sixth in SG: Approach, 19th in Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards, and 26th in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) over the last 24-rounds. Currently, he is 10th on approach, 12th in Greens in Regulation, second in Scrambling, and 34th in SG: Putting - so he appears to be playing true to form and finds himself just four shots off the lead. If his numbers don't vary too much from where they are now, he's going to be a factor.

Byeong Hun An (+8000)

I'm posting three "Draws" this week and honestly, I could probably put up another three - or more. It goes back to what I mentioned earlier - the inexperience on the leaderboard being in the majority, the star-power sprinkled in throughout, the weather factor, and a difficult golf course. While last week felt straightforward with Knapp, this week it feels like there are a hundred different things that could happen - so going deeper down the board and grabbing some long shots, might not be a bad idea. Assembling a diverse portfolio is probably sound advice.

Now to An, who has finished top 5 here twice in his career. The ball-striking has been very good as he ranks 22nd in this field through two rounds for SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th for SG: Approach, and 39th for Greens in Regulation. But the short game has been shaky. He's 130th in SG: Around-the-Green, 94th in Scrambling, and 64th in SG: Putting. This is where he has some upside though. This season, An ranks 28th on TOUR in SG: Around-the-Green and last season he was sixth. If the work on and around the greens catches up with his ball-striking over the weekend, that +8000 might prove to be pretty juicy.

Fades

Rory McIlroy (+450)

Could Rory win this tournament for a second time in his career? Of course, he could but I don't like his current position or how he's playing in relation to his very short price. McIlroy went off as a heavy pre-tournament favorite and now, three shots off the lead, he remains a very heavy favorite - about half the price at which he was trading prior to Thursday. There are 40 players other than McIlroy, within seven shots of the lead or fewer. McIlroy is currently 56th in this field for SG: Approach, meaning he will be one of the lowest in this category after the cut is officially made on Saturday morning - and it is the same for SG: Putting, where he ranks 59th. I don't really at all, expect him to fall apart but I don't really believe he'll win either - and I definitely don't want to buy on +450 when I believe it should be closer to +800.

Bud Cauley (+1000)

Cauley is back on TOUR after missing close to three seasons due to injury. Here he is now, in front of a home crowd, leading the golf tournament for what would be his first-ever PGA TOUR victory. That situation alone will have his heart pumping, his stomach turning, and his nerves on tilt. He's ridden a hot putter in order to get here, ranking second in this field for SG: Putting but at the same time, he has missed 50% of the fairways and ranks 47th for SG: Approach. Atop this leaderboard is new-found territory for Cauley, who has only found the top 5 roughly once for each of his 10+ years on TOUR. I expect things to get a little shaky going forward, especially that putter, and ultimately, I believe the winners circle will elude him once again.

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