Draws & Fades: Finding value during Knapp time at Mexico Open at Vidanta

Jake Knapp has surged into the lead at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, now sitting comfortably at 19-under par, a commanding four shots ahead of the competition. Last week at The Genesis Invitational, betting favorite Patrick Cantlay evaporated a five-shot lead heading into the weekend. Unlike Cantlay, Knapp had his best stuff on Saturday, posting his most impressive round so far in Vallarta. Knapp’s Saturday 63 featured six birdies in his first seven holes as he blew past the field both on the leaderboard and off the tee.

Knapp started the day tied for the lead at 11-under with Matt Wallace, Sami Valimaki and Alvaro Ortiz. Now, only Valimaki is in shouting distance of the California native, who is inside the top 10 in all notable Strokes Gained metrics this week sans for Around the Greens. While Knapp did struggle to find the right power on some of his chips on the Paspalum grass, it was rarely a problem as his ball striking found him putting for birdie far more times than not.

Here are the odds from BetMGM as we head into the final round of Mexico’s national open.

Updated odds to win Mexico Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• -400: Jake Knapp
• +500: Sami Valimaki
• +4500: Chan Kim
• +5500: Erik Van Rooyen
• +6000: Ben Silverman
• +6600: Matt Wallace
• +6600: Henrik Norlander
• +8000: Robert Macintyre
• +10000: Emiliano Grillo

Yesterday’s Draws & Fades discussed who from the 26 players in the top 10 at that time would lift and separate from the competition. Knapp, who joined the tie for the lead late into the afternoon, was correctly predicted due to his prowess off the tee and with his approach game. Granted, it’s easier to hit the green with a wedge than an iron for a man who ranks No. 6 on TOUR in ball speed. But the only thing that matters here is if he is able to do it again. Let’s discuss.

Draws

Jake Knapp (-400)

Round 4 – Jake Knapp Specials | To shoot 67 or lower (-100)

As the title suggests, we are fully engaged in deep sleep, REM-heavy Knapp time at Vidanta Vallarta. Knapp went out Saturday in a scorching 28 to separate from the three other men he started the day tied for the lead with. Knapp showcases prodigious talent with the driver, coming into this week already ranked No. 22 in driving distance on TOUR. Knapp used his big stick as a weapon, bombing Vidanta Vallarta to pieces in a similar fashion to the way he rose through the leaderboard at the Farmers Insurance Open to finish T3. Torrey Pines Golf Course has many similarities to Vidanta, and both courses could see their tournament winners earn their maiden TOUR victories if Knapp keeps the pedal down. An impressive factor has been Knapp’s balance, draining 10 putts in a row from 12 feet and in to start his round Saturday and ranking No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Approach. While the price is steep for him to win at -400, BetMGM offers a prop for Knapp to shoot 67 or lower on Sunday for -110. Knapp has yet to shoot above 67 this week and has a great chance to do so again in Sunday’s final round. The odds are not as valuable at this stage of the tournament, but as Knapp - the former nightclub bouncer - would tell you, it’s fine to pay a little cover at the door for a good time.

Chan Kim (+4500)

Look, this is a max-value play if there ever was one. Knapp is the man to beat, and if he does collapse or allow anyone to catch him, picking the player who lifts the trophy instead of him will be very lucrative. While we would never directly root for a rude awakening of Knapp time, Chan Kim has the best chance to capitalize in case of emergency due to his consistency. Kim’s rounds of 66-69-66 show that he avoids danger better than most, and can capitalize with putting that ranks fourth in Strokes Gained this week. This is value contingency, and a sprinkle on Kim in case of a meltdown has a high reward, low risk.

Fade

Ben Silverman (+6000)

Is it possible to fade someone at +6000? Fortune favors the bold, or something along those lines. Silverman finds himself among the group of chasers at 12-under and is the least likely to get the job done due to his play being propped up by otherworldly putting. Silverman is No. 1 in SG: Putting for the week, but doesn’t find himself in the top 30 in any other major SG category. Sitting 46th in total Tee-to-green isn’t going to get the job done on a course like Vidanta, so expect a regression to the mean on Sunday.

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