Draws & Fades: Look to co-leader Jake Knapp to break free from Mexico Open at Vidanta logjam

Unlike last week at The Genesis Invitational, where Patrick Cantlay had a five-shot advantage heading into the weekend and was roughly -165 to win the tournament, we have a logjam at the top of the leaderboard this week at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

There are 26 players just inside the top 10. Four players are tied for the lead at 11-under and 18 players are tied for ninth, only five shots back at 6-under. Within this entire 26-player group, there are golfers listed as high as +20000, +25000, and +35000 to win the tournament outright and one player, Jake Knapp, who is listed at +375. There's a little bit of everything to choose from within this faction.

Many players who finished their rounds earlier in the day had to sweat making or missing the cut all afternoon. Not long after 7 p.m. local time, Ryan McCormick birdied the par-5 finishing hole to set the cut line at 2-under. This forced 11 players at 1-under, many of whom had been inside the projected cut line for several hours, to pack their bags. In total, 66 players remain in the field at the halfway point, with only the weekend left to decide the champion.

Updated odds to win Mexico Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• +375: Jake Knapp
• +500: Matt Wallace
• +550: Erik van Rooyen
• +600: Sami Valimaki
• +1200: Alvaro Ortiz
• +1400: Tony Finau
• +2000: Mark Hubbard
• +3500: Andrew Novak, Emliano Grillo

Joining Knapp at the top are Matt Wallace, Sami Valimaki, and Alvaro Ortiz, each at 11 under through two rounds. First-round leader Erik Van Rooyen is one back at 10 under. Among the group at 6 under is the defending champion, Tony Finau.

Pre-tournament, the winning score prop bet was set at 21.5-under par. The leaders are certainly on pace here but overall, looking at the scores, it feels like Vidanta Vallarta is playing a bit more difficult this year. The winning score in 2022 was 17-under and last year it jumped to 24-under par.

Assessing where we stand after two rounds, my feeling is that the winner will come from the aforementioned 26 players inside the top 10 on the leaderboard and not any further down. While an outlier could materialize, I believe it is just too many players to overcome from any further back.

Draws

Jake Knapp (+375)

I wrote earlier in the week that this field is made up of many relatively unknown players but that it was laden with up-and-coming talent. Exhibit A is Jake Knapp. He finished last season on the Korn Ferry Tour with three top-10 finishes in his last five starts. The good form continued this year on the PGA TOUR when he took third at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course – which was a course for me this week that acts as a good pointer for success at Vidanta.

What I like about Knapp at this point, though, is the fact that he is leading the field in SG: Approach and in SG: Off the Tee. At the same time, he ranks 53rd in SG: Putting, losing nearly a full stroke to the field. Putting is the most volatile skill set. A putter can go ice cold just as quickly as it can get red hot. It is likely that Knapp’s putting will improve over the next two days – and if it does, he’s the man to beat.

Mark Hubbard (+2000)

Hubbard was a player I landed on this week pre-tournament (+6000) and I still like my chances. Hubbard was 18th here last year and comes in off of a 20th-place finish at Torrey Pines and a fourth-place finish at Pebble Beach Golf Club. He's been putting great, currently third in the field for SG: Putting. Both Poa Annua and Paspalum are a more spongy type of grass/surface and seeing how well Hubbard fared on the Poa Annua greens at Torrey Pines and at Pebble Beach, maybe that is carrying over here on the Paspalum at Vidanta Vallarta? What really sticks out though is the fact that he is 37th in this field for SG: Approach yet is still just three shots off the pace at 8-under. Hubbard came into this event No. 1 in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, so I expect his approach play to improve over the weekend. If that is the case and the putter remains hot, he's going to have an excellent chance to pick up his first-ever TOUR win.

Fade

Tony Finau (+1400)

Of the 26 players in question here, Finau carries the sixth shortest odds to win this tournament despite being five shots back at 6-under. More often than not, we have to pay a premium on the star players when making in-tournament wagers but I feel that tax is even more pronounced here because Finau is being priced as the biggest TOUR star in the field by a wide margin. I mentioned it earlier - with this many players needing to leap-frog in order to get to the top, it becomes that much more unlikely. In my mind, Finau should be +2000 or +2500 at this point to win the tournament. Of the four Strokes Gained categories, Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green and Putting, Finau does not rank higher than 27th in this field in any area. It is a little bit of a surprise that he is even this high on the leaderboard. I feel like Finau will probably continue along on this same path of good but not great play and he'll end with a relatively pedestrian top-15 finish, maybe top 10 at best. But it doesn't appear that he is going to find another gear all of a sudden to successfully defend his title.

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