Draws & Fades: Patrick Cantlay opens door to chasers at Riviera

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – Some late cracks in Patrick Cantlay’s game swung open the door for a handful of chasers at The Genesis Invitational.

Cantlay had appeared to produce enough in Saturday’s third round to maintain a healthy lead ahead of the final day at The Riviera Country Club, only to bogey the reachable par-5 17th and breathe life into those in the chase pack.

His overnight five-shot lead is now reduced to just two after a 1-under 70 left him at 14-under.

His good friend Xander Schauffele, and the comeback kid Will Zalatoris, are now in the tournament up to their eyeballs following rounds of 65.

The pair sit at 12-under and have certainly given Cantlay something to think about on Sunday as he chases a ninth PGA TOUR win.

The only other serious contenders appear to be Luke List, who sits fourth at 11-under, plus Jason Day and Harris English who share fifth at 10-under, four off the pace.

Cantlay had been a model of consistency through 36 holes but on Saturday he lost strokes to the field from Tee-to-Green, on approach and around the greens. His formerly hot putter also cooled as countless birdie putts burned edges.

Now he must rebound or get overrun.

Here are the current odds with BetMGM and my thoughts on possible betting moves from this point below.

• +110: Patrick Cantlay (-14, 1st)
• +275: Xander Schauffele (-12, T2)
• +450: Will Zalatoris (-12, T2)
• +1400: Luke List (-11, 4th)
• +2000: Jason Day (-10, T5)
• +3000: Harris English (-10, T5)
• +12500: Hideki Matsuyama (-8, T7)
• +12500: J.T. Poston (-8, T7)
• +15000: Corey Conners (-8, T7)

DRAWS

Patrick Cantlay +110

I’m not going to throw the baby out with the bath water despite the fact the finish on Saturday was not very confidence inducing. Cantlay has been the best player on the course through three days and he has a stoic constitution so I believe he can shake off his poor finish.

He still leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting and is fourth on Approach. His short game around the greens let him down Saturday but the comfort factor of playing with Schauffele will allow him the calmness to finish strong.

“This golf course is a golf course I grew up on, playing in college a number of times and having the NCAA Championships here,” the former UCLA Bruin Cantlay said. “Being from Southern California, it's one of the tournaments on the list that I'd like to win the most.”

Xander Schauffele +275

I have to agree with the books here… if someone is going to chase down Cantlay, I think Schauffele is the man.

I slotted him as a bankable top-10 player this week and he certainly should have that sewn up, but if he is to win – I’d love to see the chip-on-shoulder animal I've seen often return.

Schauffele was a long-time favorite of mine because he chased better than most. His early wins were all come-from-behind efforts and I watched him break Australian hearts at the 2019 Presidents Cup as he dismantled crowd favorite Adam Scott in ruthless fashion.

“To play good golf around Riviera you've got to sort of fire on all cylinders and been able to do that the last couple days," said Schauffele. "Just wanted to give myself a shot tomorrow.” Schauffele has certainly given himself a chance as he is the only bogey-free player in the last 36 holes.

He has become very close with Cantlay in the last four years, teaming with him to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, racking up points for the U.S. teams, going on vacations together and even moving near each other.

Tomorrow… he should ignore his friend! Go back to the killer he was and try to throw Cantlay off guard.

“We've played in the final pairing a couple times," Schauffele commented. "I got the best of him at Travelers, he got the best of me at BMW. We know where we stand and how we compete against each other."

FADE

Luke List +1400

It’s been like watching an out-of-body experience with List this week as he ranks second in the field in SG: Putting, not usually a strength of his. You have to applaud him for finding himself just three off the pace despite losing strokes off the tee and around the greens.

A big part of this has been muscling approach shots from the rough to great spots and his aforementioned red-hot putter, but as the heat of contention rachets up you have to think his luck with lies off the short grass could get worse.

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