Draws & Fades: History points to Patrick Cantlay romp at Riviera

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – It’s over. Call it. It’s done.

Patrick Cantlay looks set to continue the trend of frontrunners winning at The Riviera Country Club after the former UCLA standout blitzed his way to a five-shot lead through 36 holes on Friday.

Cantlay shot a blemish-free 6-under 65 to move to 13-under for the tournament and become a short-priced betting favorite at -145 with BetMGM Sportsbook.

The last eight winners of the Genesis Invitational have been inside the top six through 36 holes, meaning only Jason Day (-8), Luke List (-8), Mackenzie Hughes (-8), Corey Conners (-7), Xander Schauffele (-6), Will Zalatoris (-6) and Tom Hoge (-6) have recent history on their side when it comes to a weekend chase.

But I’m prepared to say they won’t catch the California kid from here and we are about to witness the second wire-to-wire winner at Riviera in the last three years.

While it’s true Cantlay’s scoring average this season drops to 70 in third rounds, and 72.67 in round four, this was a different animal through 36 holes. He is also coming off a third-place finish in the event a year ago.

The day will also be remembered for the withdrawal from the tournament of host Tiger Woods, who had flu-like symptoms and had to retire after just six holes of his second round.

Here are the current odds with BetMGM and my thoughts on possible betting moves from this point below.

• -160: Patrick Cantlay (-13, 1st)
• +1200: Jason Day (-8, T2)
• +1600: Xander Schauffele (-6, T6)
• +2000: Luke List (-8, T2)
• +2000: Scottie Scheffler (-4, T12)
• +2800: Mackenzie Hughes (-8, T2)
• +2800: Corey Conners (-7, 5th)
• +3000: Will Zalatoris (-6, T6)
• +3500: Tony Finau (-5, T9)

DRAWS

Patrick Cantlay* -160

Here’s the deal. I am a firm believer that Cantlay is winning this golf tournament. Hence his spot as a draw. But if you haven’t bet on him already this week, now is probably not the time. The juice is not worth the squeeze when you add in variables that could still happen.

Clearly, some sort of illness is going around and you never know. Golf is a volatile sport. If you’re not on already, might as well wait this one out.

Cantlay ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach and Putting and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Jason Day +1200

Just like yesterday, call this a leap of faith.

Of the closest chases, Day is the most accomplished as a former major winner and world No.1.

The Australian ranks inside the top 25 in all Strokes Gained metrics and didn’t let a raft of bogeys derail his attitude on Friday like it may have at Riviera in the past. Coming off a T9 at the event last year.

Corey Conners +2800

So, you’re saying there’s a chance…

If you’re looking for a miracle the Canadian is fourth in SG: Off the Tee, fifth SG: Tee-to-Green, eighth in SG: Approach and 21st in SG: Putting.

But his best finish in four tries here is 66th.

FADE

Scottie Scheffler +2000

Turn off the horror movie.

The divide between the sublime field leading Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and the 68th ranked out of 69 players SG: Putting is wider than the nearby Pacific Ocean for the world No. 1.

Scheffler’s longest made putt on Friday was 4’4” and his total length of putts made was just 35’10”.

You cannot make up a nine-shot deficit without making a LOT of putts and this is just not going to happen right now. Scheffler should be +4000 or more from here.

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