Draws & Fades: Patrick Cantlay in driver’s seat at The Riviera Country Club

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – Steady. Stoic. Steely.

Normally I am loathe to give a first-round leader on the PGA TOUR a vote of confidence to take it all the way to the house but Patrick Cantlay was scarily focused on Thursday at the Riviera Country Club.

The former FedExCup winner shot a tidy 7-under 64, importantly showcasing a return to form in his approach game, to take the solo lead at the Genesis Invitational.

He sits one-shot clear of Luke List and two Australians in Jason Day and Cam Davis while Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris and Tom Hoge all share fifth at 5-under.

Tiger Woods battled to a 1-over 72 in his return to TOUR golf, carding five birdies but giving up six bogeys. It left him T49 in the 70-man field.

Cantlay, a California kid and ex-UCLA standout, moved to the +350 betting favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook, despite the fact he’s shown a propensity to fade so far this season. His opening rounds this season now read 66-64-65-64-64 but the best result is a T11 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

That equates to a round one scoring average of 64.6 but this drops to 69.25 in round two, 70 in round three, and 72.67 in round four.

So, while the recent past suggests he should be a fade, I think the oddsmakers no doubt saw the same intensity I did here on course and are worried this time could be different. Cantlay finished third at Riviera a year ago and has four further top 17s at the event.

Here are the current odds with BetMGM and my thoughts on possible betting moves from this point below.

• +350: Patrick Cantlay (-7, 1st)
• +600: Scottie Scheffler (-3, T10)
• +1000: Jordan Spieth (-5, T5)
• +1100: Jason Day (-6, T2)
• +1400: Cam Davis (-6, T2)
• +1400: Will Zalatoris (-5, T5)
• +1800: Ludvig Åberg (-3, T10)
• +2200: Luke List (-6, T2)
• +2800: Byeong Hun An (-4, T8)

DRAWS

Patrick Cantlay +350

This number is really short, and perhaps actually one to avoid until Saturday night, but I am still going to agree with the oddsmakers that Cantlay is the man to beat.

Normally I hate drawing a favorite after the first day but he just looked determined to forge past everyone on Thursday. He ranked second in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting and third in SG: Approach – the part of his game that had been a letdown early this season but appeared to be back to his usual high standards on Thursday.

His only blemish came on the par-3 16th hole where his albeit below-average tee shot caught a wicked piece of luck, hitting a branch of a tree and bouncing backward a significant distance into the deep rough.

“I'm really comfortable around this place,” he said afterward. “Greens are really good. This is probably the best condition I've seen Riviera… it's a place I'm really comfortable.”

Jason Day +1100

This is a leap of faith.

Call it a gut feel as much as anything else but I know this player better than most and, in the past, I would have never advised a draw on this course – because his own self-talk about it was consistently negative.

But lately, including a T9 last year, a more mature Day has emerged and a new positive mindset around this place has seemingly begun taking hold.

Day ranked inside the top 14 in all Strokes Gained metrics in the opening round and was bogey-free, something he will build from.

“In my early days I disliked this golf course,” Day admitted. “One of two things had to change, I either wouldn't play here or you just have to change your attitude a little bit. Changing that mindset and that attitude was huge. Obviously, I've found some success, which is good.”

FADE

Scottie Scheffler +600

It’s gotten really tough to watch. Scheffler could have conceivably shot a course record in the opening round such was his ball-striking at times but his putting was once again diabolically bad on Thursday, ranking him 66th of 70 players in the field at -2.572 strokes.

Only the fact he ranked first in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, third off the tee and fourth around the greens saved him from falling further than four shots off the pace. He missed seven putts inside 10 feet, including a disastrous three-putt for bogey on the 16th when he faced 9 feet for a birdie.

I keep hearing people say – and I used to be one of them – that he needs only putt a little better to make a huge run. And sure, he might do that at some stage… but as we saw last week at the WM Phoenix Open, you cannot trust the putter will hold up under the stress of contention.

So, I just cannot advocate +600 when playing catch-up involves making critical putts. If I need to eat my hat after this, so be it.

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