Draws & Fades: Cameron Young set to get benefit of draw while Jordan Spieth faces uphill climb

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – The heavens may have opened and the temperature certainly plummeted at the WM Phoenix Open, but the silver lining to any weather delay on the PGA TOUR is the opportunity to take a breath, reevaluate the live betting odds, and react accordingly.

Only the morning wave finished their opening rounds at TPC Scottsdale as persistent rain gathered into puddles on the course and forced a three-and-a-half-hour suspension.

Sahith Theegala was the pacesetter, with the former runner-up in Phoenix shooting a 6-under 65. He was one ahead of Andrew Novak who raced to 5-under through nine holes before darkness ended play early.

Shane Lowry (67) and S.H. Kim (67) share third in the clubhouse and Jordan Spieth was the lone 3-under round through 18 holes.

There is no doubt a perceived advantage to those players who had a Thursday afternoon tee time and have only played a handful of holes in their tournament.

Not only did they avoid the tough conditions prior to the suspension, but they will play the rest of their opening two rounds back-to-back on a soft and getable course, with clear skies on Friday.

Players who started Thursday morning will be playing at least some of their second round on Saturday, which has an 86% chance of more rain, once again giving them tougher conditions.

This gives the likes of favorite Scottie Scheffler – who is chasing a three-peat – and Justin Thomas the chance to attack the golf course and take the tournament by the scruff of the neck.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook for the weather-interrupted first round followed by my thoughts on who to target ahead of the resumption of play.

+400: Scottie Scheffler (-1 thru 6, T18)
+650: Sahith Theegala (-6, 1st)
+1200: Jordan Spieth (-3, T5)
+1400: Justin Thomas (even thru 5, T48)
+1400: Cameron Young (-3 thru 5, T5)
+1800: Shane Lowry (-4, T3)
+2000: Sam Burns (-1 thru 5, T18)
+2500: Matt Fitzpatrick (-2, T8)
+3300: Hideki Matsuyama (-1 thru 7, T18)

DRAWS

Cameron Young (+1400)

Astute colleague Will Gray was bullish on Cameron Young pre-tournament when he was at +3300, and after watching his opening few holes on Thursday afternoon I can see why. Young was dialed in on the soaked layout, jumping to 3-under after just five holes. Young hit his approach shots to 2’6”, 10’0” and 1’8” for his three birdies in an eye-opening blitz. With a soft course and no rain on Friday, he is set up to soar.

Nick Taylor (+4000)

The runner-up last year has seemingly picked up where he left off, getting to 3-under through his first six holes on the back nine of TPC Scottsdale. The Canadian is a better player than he was a year ago, and a proven TOUR winner having won the RBC Canadian Open last season. He will open up his Friday account with a tee shot inside the 16th stadium hole, with probably the least number of fans of any group and therefore less pressure before hitting the drivable par-4 17th.

Justin Thomas (+1400)

Sitting on the “good” side of the draw I will still advocate for my pre-tournament winner despite a pretty average start. While others were making birdies in the few holes they played in the afternoon wave, Thomas was on a treadmill to be even through five and left his drive on the 6th in a bunker.

But he is the type of player who can reset overnight and attack.

Of the last nine winners, six have finished the week ranked either first or second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and none of the winners have ranked outside the top 19. Thomas ranks first this season thus far.

Similarly, six of the last seven champions have ranked T6 or better in Ball Striking at TPC Scottsdale. Thomas ranks first this season. The last nine winners have finished inside the top six in Par Breakers, with seven of the last eight at T3 or better. Thomas ranks second so far this season.

Add to this that 12 of the last 13 winners had a T7 or better in their previous five starts before victory. Thomas opened this season with a T3-T6 start and the last eight champions at the event had previously recorded at least one top-10 at the WM Phoenix Open prior to winning. Thomas’ last five starts here read 4-8-13-3-3.

FADE

Jordan Spieth (+1200)

This is a fade of the draw with Spieth’s 3-under 68 impressive in the morning wave, but likely to be dwarfed by those playing most of their holes on Friday. While he sits T5 now, it's distinctly likely that he will be miles behind by the time he starts his second round. With the round not complete Spieth ranks first in SG: Off-the-Tee but is 121st in SG: Approach. If he can’t fix that, he won’t be able to chase down the birdies he will need.