Draws & Fades: Jump on North Course players who can grind back

Dominate the North, survive the South.

It’s the same mantra we’ve seen for years at the Farmers Insurance Open and it continued after the opening round from Torrey Pines Golf Course.

The shorter, more getable North Course housed 27 of the top 33 players on the leaderboard after Wednesday’s opening round with the scoring average at 69.703 against the tougher longer South Course averaging at 71.960.

Kevin Yu led the way with his 8-under 64 on the North, one clear of Japan’s Ryo Hisatsune and former FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay at 7-under.

Major champions Hideki Matsuyama and Shane Lowry, plus Thomas Detry, Aaron Rai and Alejandro Tosti lurk after carding 66s on the North.

European Ryder Cupper Nicolai Højgaard was the star performer on the South Course, producing a 5-under 67 in his first trip around the former U.S. Open host course. With the scoring average in mind, you can call him close to a virtual tied leader at this spot despite a T9 next to his name. Nick Hardy also put up a 67 on the South.

The reality is, with preferred lies in action again for Round 2, those heading to the North Course can still chase low scores on Thursday. So, looking for players who can go low in the second round and then head to the South over the weekend could be your ticket on the betting boards.

Of course, those big-name stars who have started well on the North are still in great shape, but chances are they’ll find the going tougher in Round 2, and as such their odds may still be in a sweet spot for you through 36 holes. Cantlay, Matsuyama and Lowry are clearly good enough to win.

Yu is still juicy at +2000 because he is a ball-striking wizard off the tee. While not really being a winning contender on TOUR his stat profile last season was epic for a non-winner. He was seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green and second in GIR. He just needs to make more putts. With a T3 last week at The American Express he’s in form.

Here are the current odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +550: Patrick Cantlay (-7 North, T2)
• +800: Xander Schauffele (-3 South, T34)
• +1000: Nicolai Højgaard (-5 South, T9)
• +1100: Collin Morikawa (-5 North, T9
• +1600: Max Homa (-2 South, T48)
• +1800: Hideki Matsuyama (-6 North, T4)
• +2000: Kevin Yu (-8 North, 1st)
• +2000: Ludvig Åberg (-4 North, T19)
• +2200: Tony Finau (-3 South, T34)
• +2500: Stephan Jaeger (-4 South, T19)
• +2500: Ryo Hisatsune (-7 North, T2)

In the last 10 years, the winner at the Farmers Insurance Open has started on the South Course six times, but recently the North Course first has been the play with four of the last five starting on the easier track.

The eventual winner has also been as high as tied for the lead through 18 holes, and as far back as nine shots. The average deficit through 18 holes in the last decade is five shots.

With this in mind we should lean towards those players we think can claw back in Round 2, most likely playing the North, as our “Draw” plays and save those heading to South for consideration after 36 holes.

It’s a time to be conservative with unit size and then reassess after 36 holes when the event goes back exclusively to the South for the final two rounds.

DRAWS

Tony Finau (-3, T34, +2200)

In nine starts Finau has finished inside the top 24 eight times at the Farmers Insurance Open. He was inside the top 10 in five of his last seven. On the South on Wednesday, he was inside the top 27 in all of the key Strokes Gained metrics, sitting positive on all. Finau shapes up as someone who can not only go low in Round 2 on the North, but then has all the tools to survive the South in the final two rounds.

Nicolai Højgaard (-5, T8, +1000)

When it comes to success on the South Course you need great play off the tee and you need to make putts. Højgaard led the field on the South for SG: Off-the-Tee and ranked 10th in SG: Putting. Now he gets to go to the North and possibly put up a low one to shoot further up the leaderboard. The only potential concerns are lack of experience on the course but with preferred lies and soft greens the Danish youngster can just play what’s in front of him. Jetlag from Dubai could also kick in at some point.

Stephan Jaeger (-4, T19, +2500)

This is a bit of a flyer given his 68 in the first round is his career best on the South Course where he has notoriously struggled in the past. But he’s got a 65 from the North on his resume in 2022 and we know he can find birdies in bunches. Ranked fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee on Wednesday and 13th in SG: Putting makes me wonder if he might just be about to have one of his low weeks.

FADE

Patrick Cantlay (-7, T2, +550)

This is very tough to do given the caliber of player Cantlay is but the fact is he’s heading to the South Course and this number feels like a trap at this early stage. In his three prior trips to the Farmers Insurance Open, he’s missed the cut twice and finished T51. He might still be setting up a victory in his home state but I’m forced to advocate waiting one more round to see where his chips fall. If he shoots lights out and takes a healthy lead and I miss the boat… so be it.

LOTTERY TICKETS

Luke List (-2, T48, +6600)

The 2022 winner was four back after 18 holes when he won. He’s six back but heading to the North after ranking 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee on the South.

Keegan Bradley (+1, T108, +18000 to win, +1000 Top 10 via DraftKings)

Last year’s runner-up battled away on Wednesday but at 20th in SG: Off the Tee and some recent good form, he could find his way back up the leaderboard in the coming rounds.

Jason Day (+2, T138, +30000 to win, +1600 Top 10 via DraftKings)

The two-time champion is unlikely to give in despite a rough start. In his two wins, he was eight and nine back after 18 holes and at least one Australian has finished in the Top 10 of the event in 17 of the last 18 years.

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