Draws & Fades: Collegiate friends (and foes) set to tango on Sunday

College football season may be over but there is still an SEC showdown left to be settled.

This one, however, will not take place on the Gridiron or even in the Southeast region of the United States.

No, this one will be taking place in La Quinta, California, on the golf course.

Nick Dunlap, an Alabama sophomore and star on the Crimson Tide golf team, has taken advantage of his opportunity on a sponsor exemption this week at The American Express, his fourth time teeing it up at a PGA TOUR event, including two U.S. Opens. Having missed the cut in his three previous TOUR starts, Dunlap has turned things up a bit by not only making his first TOUR cut but positioning himself atop the leaderboard heading into Sunday’s final round.

Right behind him? LSU Tiger and five-time PGA TOUR winner Sam Burns. Burns is looking to win a TOUR event for the fourth consecutive season.

And why not make this SEC showdown slightly spicier by adding another Alabama lifer into the mix by way of one Justin Thomas. With a heartbreaking near-miss of the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs that saw him come up one spot shy of qualifying for the postseason, the Alabama alum is back and determined to rebound in the 2024 season. What better way for him to reintroduce himself on TOUR by winning for the first time since a playoff win at the 2022 PGA Championship?

All the golfers have completed their rounds at each of the three courses in rotation at PGA WEST -- La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Pete Dye Stadium Course. The 54-hole cut has been determined and the remaining 67 players will take on the Pete Dye Stadium Course on Sunday for the final time this week.

Will one of the two Alabama Crimson Tide golfers be able to get the job done? Or will the LSU Tiger be able to stalk down his prey and claim victory at The American Express?

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +140: Nick Dunlap (-27, 1st)
• +220: Sam Burns (-24, 2nd)
• +375: Justin Thomas (-23, 3rd)

Draws

Nick Dunlap (-27, 1st, +140)

When is the next time I’ll be able to draw an amateur following Round 3 of a PGA TOUR event? I’m not sure and quite frankly I’d lean toward never. But never say never and I suppose and that is the mantra I will lean on when stamping my name next to the 20-year-old Dunlap pulling off this victory.

But seriously, why not? All the 2022 U.S. Amateur champion has done this week is fire off 22 birdies and three eagles against just one bogey across all three courses thus far. His lone bogey came on the par-4 sixth (his 15th of the round) at the Nicklaus Tournament Course in Round 1, 40 holes ago. He went on to card an 8-under 64 in Round 1.

The Crimson Tide product wowed the crowd with a tournament-low 60 on Saturday at La Quinta Country Club. Tomorrow, he takes his talents to the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the toughest of the three courses in play at The American Express, by a full stroke. Dunlap played Pete Dye Stadium Course in Round 2 and all he did was birdie six holes on the front nine to open in 30. He went on to shoot 7-under 65.

All of that is fine and dandy, but how will the Sunday spotlight, sleeping on the 54-hole lead and facing two PGA TOUR veterans with a combined 20 TOUR wins lingering behind him effect this young star? Nothing has seemed to faze him up to this point and I expect that focused, stoic demeanor to carry him across the finish line tomorrow. Congratulations, Dunlap.

Justin Thomas (-23, 3rd, +375)

I don’t love the prospect of taking anyone other than Dunlap to win. I do however love the prospect of two Alabama Crimson Tide products battling it out on a Sunday. The thought of that paired with his ‘ok’ odds have me drawing JT. Not that this is a ‘Dunlap or Thomas to win’ bet at very, very short odds, I just think JT has the firepower and experience in these spots to make some noise or at least let the amateur Dunlap feel him coming from behind.

Let’s be real, if it weren’t for Dunlap’s 12-under 60 at La Quinta Country Club, Thomas’ 11-under 61 at Pete Dye Stadium Course would be the story of the day. The idea that Thomas gets the same course tomorrow is a rather tasty proposition.

As mentioned previously, JT’s last win came at the PGA Championship in 2022. Do you remember how that went down? I do. Thomas opened the final round seven shots behind the lead and was tied for seventh. He then carded a 3-under 67, sat in the clubhouse for over an hour, let the leaders falter and came out and won it in a playoff.

A four-stroke deficit is large, but in this sport, and in this spot for Dunlap, those shots can be made up in one or two holes. If anyone can challenge Dunlap, it’d be his Alabama brethren Thomas.

Fades

Sam Burns (-24, 2nd, +220)

It is hard to try and justify fading anyone at 24-under for a tournament going into the final round. In fact, there isn’t much from a statistical standpoint that would lead me to think Burns can’t win this tournament. Where my fade comes into play is how he has scored on each of the three courses.

La Quinta Country Club is the easier of the three tracks in play at PGA WEST. Burns opened his tournament there on Thursday and carded a respectable 66 (compared to Dunlap’s 60 there on Saturday). Burns did however card a 61 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course on Friday, which to me felt like more of an outlier than expected result. He then closed his 54-hole start with a 65 at Pete Dye Stadium Course on Saturday.

In a chasing position, trailing by three shots on a course where the leader of the tournament opened in 30 on Friday, I simply do not see Dunlap stumbling enough or Burns going low enough (like I could see from Thomas) to catch Dunlap and win.