Draws & Fades: Finding Stadium survivors key at The American Express

Rotation. Rotation. Rotation.

Those who have been following along all week are well aware I’ve gone pretty much all in on one particular rotation at The American Express.

With four of the last seven winners playing La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and then the Pete Dye Stadium Course as their order of play, I’ve decided this is a distinct advantage.

So far, everything is going as expected as 10 of the top 15 players on the leaderboard (and 14 of the top 25), including the top two, have played on this rotation.

So what, you say? They all hit the harder Stadium Course on Saturday and as such will be roped in by others going low on the easier La Quinta and Nicklaus Tournament courses.

A few will, but I contend at least half of them will ride the momentum of good play into another low round, even at the Stadium. While there is no doubt it is playing the hardest of the three, we have still seen 19 rounds of 6-under 66 or better over the opening two days on Pete Dye’s course.

With confidence riding high I’m banking around seven of the top 14 players on this rotation will add to that tally.

So the question becomes: Which ones will take advantage and set themselves up for a shot at the title on Sunday?

Sitting up top at 17-under is Sam Burns, thanks mainly to a beautiful 11-under 61 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course on Friday. Burns is the new +350 favorite despite the fact Stadium is next up on his plate. Why? Well, it might be the fact he opened last year’s tournament with a 64 on the Stadium Course.

I’m not ready to fade Burns because of this history but I’m also not advocating him as a draw also. The number doesn’t excite me yet. Short of him putting up another very low number, we should see something similar for him with a round to go. With so many birdies out there, it just seems too early to jump in at a short number.

Burns is one shot clear of Michael Kim at 16-under, another player heading to Stadium on Saturday.

Joining them there is K.H. Lee, who sits T3 with amateur Nick Dunlap at 15-under. Dunlap has an amazing opportunity to produce a serious upset given he’s heading to La Quinta Country Club on Saturday.

Six players are tied fifth at 14-under including Patrick Cantlay, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Eric Cole, Alex Noren, Adam Hadwin and former champion Si Woo Kim.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +350: Sam Burns (-17, 1st) – Plays Stadium Rd 3.
• +650: Patrick Cantlay (-14, T5) – Plays Stadium Rd 3
• +900: Eric Cole (-14, T5) – Plays Nicklaus Tournament Rd 3
• +1400: Michael Kim (-16, 2nd) – Plays Stadium Rd 3
• +1400: Adam Hadwin (-14, T5) – Plays La Quinta Rd 3
• +1400: Min Woo Lee (-13, T11) – Plays La Quinta Rd 3
• +1600: K.H. Lee (-15, T3) – Plays Stadium Rd 3
• +1800: Si Woo Kim (-14, T5) – Plays Stadium Rd 3
• +2000: Scottie Scheffler (-11, T26) – Plays Stadium Rd 3
• +2500: Alex Noren (-14, T5) – Plays Stadium Rd 3
• +2500: Nick Dunlap (-15, T3) – Plays La Quinta Rd 3
• +2800: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-14, T5) – Plays Stadium Rd 3
• +2800: J.T. Poston (-12, T17) – Plays Nicklaus Tournament Rd 3

DRAWS

STADIUM COURSE

Patrick Cantlay (-14, T5, +650)

Yesterday I made the mistake of thinking Cantlay’s good friend Xander Schauffele might be the pick of the two after the first round. But it was Cantlay who continued his good play. Add to this the fact he has finished T9-2-9-T26 in his last four starts at The American Express and was first in Par-5 Scoring, eighth in Birdie or Better percentage and 18th in SG: Approach last season and he’s in a great spot. As far as the Stadium Course goes, Cantlay has a scoring average of 67.78 in his last four starts in the event – including a 66, two 65s and a blistering 61 in nine rounds there.

Si Woo Kim (-14, T5, +1800)

The man who beat Cantlay when he closed with that incredible 61 was none other than Si Woo Kim. Kim shot a 66 and 64 in his Stadium rounds back in 2021 on the way to the title. He backed it up with 69-67 in his title defense and 69-66 last year. Add to this comfortability with the reality of his success at Pete Dye designs and the former THE PLAYERS Championship winner becomes a serious contender at juicier odds.

NICKLAUS TOURNAMENT COURSE

Just in case you are not a believer in my rotation theory:

Eric Cole (-14, T5, +900)

The PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year last season is well poised as he heads to the Nicklaus Tournament course – a place that gave up a 61 on Friday. Cole is no stranger to running up birdies and has the opportunity to make a serious surge.

LA QUINTA COUNTRY CLUB

Adam Hadwin (-14, T5, +1400)

Between 2016 and 2019 Hadwin went T6-T2-T3-T2 at this tournament. In 2017 he shot a 59 at La Quinta Country Club, so clearly, he has good vibes at the venue. If he can put up something even close to that, he becomes very dangerous indeed.

Min Woo Lee (-13, T11, +1400)

The Australian is smashing the ball right now and ranks second in driving distance this week. Now he goes to the shortest course with the least defense to bombers. His last five worldwide starts reaped a 3-1-15-6-1 run of results.

FADES

Scottie Scheffler (-11, T26, +2000)

I’m doubling down against the world No. 1. Giving up a head start of this distance before he hits the Stadium Course just feels like a bridge too far in a shootout which requires boatloads of putts to drop. The reality is Scheffler has to attack now and while he is clearly talented enough to make a run, it only takes one mistake from his position to count him out of the running.

Nick Dunlap (-15, T3, +2500)

Amateurs just don’t win TOUR events anymore but boy would it be cool to be wrong with this take. Dunlap is a U.S. Amateur champion and a U.S. Junior Amateur champion, matching Tiger Woods with that feat. He lipped out a putt to shoot the first college golf 59. Wait. Am I making a case against my fade? Look, he has a huge future ahead, but this is another level at a young age. I fear he may be a little too amped up trying to push at the “easy” course. Go on Nick, prove me wrong.