Draws & Fades: Mates Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay set up shot at The American Express trophy

Strap in. The shootout is well and truly underway at The American Express.

As expected, the scoring was hot on the opening day of the tournament, and once again it was La Quinta Country Club that hosted the leaders as combatants tackled the three-course rotation. including PGA WEST's Nicklaus Tournament and Pete Dye's Stadium Course.

Veterans Zach Johnson and Alex Noren turned back the clock on the way to rounds of 10-under 62 at La Quinta to be one clear of Christiaan Bezuidenhout of South Africa and Rico Hoey of the Philippines.

Bezuidenhout also navigated La Quinta while Hoey did his damage at the Nicklaus Tournament.

Nine players sit tied for fifth following 8-under 64s, four from La Quinta in Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Si Woo Kim and Alexander Björk; three from Nicklaus Tournament in Chan Kim, Justin Lower and amateur Nick Dunlap; and two from the Stadium Course in Scott Stallings and Hayden Springer.

With the Stadium historically the hardest of the three courses, Stallings and Springer are in great shape as they head to the shortest and perhaps easiest La Quinta. As such, you can consider them possible “Draws” at +2800 and +5000, respectively.

But given only one of the last seven champions started at the Stadium, I’m still wary of them going forward. They must find the balance of expectation in their second round. If they push too hard, they could easily falter.

Those who played the Nicklaus Tournament on Thursday face the Stadium on Friday and as such become natural “Fades”. This is not to say dismiss them completely, but chances are you might get similar, or even higher odds, after round two.

Min Woo Lee (+1600), for example, opened with a 7-under 65 at Nicklaus Tournament but now heads to Stadium. Sungjae Im (+1800) is another from Nicklaus Tournament who shot 66. I’d be hanging back for one more day before deciding on this ultra-talented duo.

Instead, my focus is where it was from the start. Those who opened at La Quinta and are now heading to Nicklaus Tournament looking to continue the roll. The oddsmakers see it the same way, with the top five on the board those who have already played the shortest course.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +600: Patrick Cantlay (-8, La Quinta, T5)
• +700: Xander Schauffele (-8, La Quinta, T5)
• +1100: Scottie Scheffler (-5, La Quinta, T39)
• +1200: Alex Noren (-10, La Quinta, T1)
• +1400: Justin Thomas (-7, La Quinta, T14)
• +1600: Min Woo Lee (-7, Nicklaus Tournament, T14)
• +1800: Sungjae Im (-6, Nicklaus Tournament, T22)
• +2000: Eric Cole (-6, Stadium, T22)
• +2200: Si Woo Kim (-8, La Quinta, T5)
• +2500: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-9, La Quinta, T3)
• +2800: Scott Stallings (-8, Stadium, T5)
• +3000: Adam Hadwin (-7, Nicklaus Tournament, T14)

DRAWS

Xander Schauffele (-8, T5, +700)

Schauffele was my pre-tournament pick to win so I’m not about to jump off after he started exactly as I had hoped … well at least in scoring terms. One could choose to look at the fact he hit just eight of 14 fairways and 13 of 18 greens as a concern. But I choose to see the five-from-five scrambling and just 24 putts as a positive heading into tomorrow.

Last season Schauffele ranked first on TOUR for Birdie or Better Percentage, was fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, fifth in SG: Putting and 13th in Par-5 Scoring. He was 4-under on the par 5s Thursday. His stat profile screams winner here.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-9, T3, +2500)

If you are looking for juicier odds, then look no further than South African Bezuidenhout. Nine birdies around La Quinta a year after finishing T11 at this event show why I highlighted him as a longshot option. The former International Team Presidents Cup representative was +12500 to start the week and now is +2500. Oh, and last year he played the Nicklaus Tournament Course, where he heads Friday, in 62 shots.

Patrick Cantlay (-8, T5, +600)

While I like Schauffele ahead of his good mate, I can’t in good conscience not advocate for Cantlay as well from this point. He has finished T9-2-9-T26 in his last four starts at The American Express and was first in Par-5 Scoring, eighth in Birdie or Better Percentage and 18th in SG: Approach last season.

FADE

Scottie Scheffler (-5, T39, +1100)

This is a straight fade on his odds. Scheffler has given up a head start to a bunch of players with his average opening on the easiest course and I’m just not sure he is going to make it up at an event where you have to make more putts than you miss. As he begins to press, I worry more putts will burn edges and while I could definitely see his odds being a little shorter after Friday, playing Stadium on Saturday from behind could prove difficult.

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