Draws and Fades: Wind a worry at Waialae

The real defense of Waialae Country Club turned up in the afternoon during Thursday's opening round of the Sony Open in Hawaii with winds whipping up around one the flattest tracks on the PGA TOUR.

Often presented as a soft vacation-style start to the year when the winds lie down, Waialae got real on Thursday as gusts over 30 mph lashed those trying to get the little ball in the hole, and it is the wind we must be wary of for another day when it comes to bets from Oahu.

Those players from the morning wave who had the easier of conditions in the opening round won’t return until Friday afternoon when the winds are once again expected to be a factor before disappearing for the weekend rounds.

In other words, we need to find the players we think can survive conditions on Friday, and then step on the gas and go low over the final two rounds.

If – and it is an if when it comes to wind forecasts – the wind does stay tough then we should be looking at the best performers from Thursday afternoon who might get out ahead of the worst of it on Friday.

It’s a tricky balance and one you need to stay on top of. If the prognosticators get it wrong and we wake tomorrow to see dormant trees, then the afternoon wave becomes a bunch of “draws” rather than likely “fades”. Already the forecast is talking 20+ gusts rather than 30+. At what level do they keep advantage versus disadvantage?

One man who defied the tougher Thursday winds was leader Cam Davis. The Australian comes into the week with momentum having played in his home country through the end of the year and being in Maui, albeit as a non-contender, last week.

Davis gained over six shots in Strokes Gained: Putting on Thursday to give himself a real shot at PGA TOUR win No. 2 with his 8-under 62.

When darkness halted play he was two shots clear of Taylor Montgomery (64) and three ahead of Aaron Rai (65), Austin Eckroat (65), Webb Simpson (65) and Stephan Jaeger (65).

Here are the latest odds heading into Friday's second round at Waialae Country Club.

+450: Cam Davis (-8, 1st)
+1200: Chris Kirk (-4, T7)
+1400: Taylor Montgomery (-6, 2nd)
+1600: Eric Cole (-4, T7)
+1600: Harris English (-4, T7)
+1600: Aaron Rai (-5, T3)
+1600: Brendon Todd (-4, T7)
+1800: Stephan Jaeger (-5, T3)
+2000: Justin Rose (-3, T16)
+2200: Austin Eckroat (-5, T3)
+2500: Alex Noren (-4, T7)
+2500: Byeong Hun An (-3, T16)

DRAWS

Cam Davis (+450, -8, 1st)

As a fellow Aussie most know I’m a big Davis fan and this week I joked I was going to pick against him just to get a reverse jinx going. I entered the year expecting big things for Davis in 2024 and made the error of letting last week start to add a little doubt when he failed to fire at The Sentry. Davis knows how to negotiate winds and potentially gets a little reprieve Friday morning. He has a chance to set a hot pace and if he does, you won’t see these odds again. The worry – if there is one – is he putted lights out, for his standards, on Thursday. Ranked first Thursday in Strokes Gained: Putting, he was well above last year’s season rank of 123rd. He will need to channel the good vibes on the greens much like Hideki Matsuyama at Waialae a few years ago.

Webb Simpson (+3300, -5, T3)

Golfbet guru Will Gray was astute in putting up Simpson as a longshot option at the start of the week. While the last few years haven’t been peak Simpson, as a former U.S. Open winner, he has the talent tucked away. It helps he has seven top-15 finishes at Waialae including three top-4s in his past. Ranked fifth Thursday in SG: Approach and if he knocks in a few more putts Friday morning he’ll be in position to pounce.

Taylor Montgomery (+1400, -6, 2nd)

There is only one reason to think Montgomery can continue from his hot start. Putting. The second-best putter on TOUR last season had the rock rolling Thursday morning and given 12 of the last 14 winners at the Sony Open finished inside the top 10 of putting for the week he can’t be discounted. If I am completely honest I’d like to hold off for one more round to see how the wind treats him as his odds may be similar heading into the weekend, or possibly even a little juicier. At least wait till he’s about to start his second round and make a choice. But if it comes down to a putting contest on the weekend, it could favor this guy.

FADES

Aaron Rai (+1600, T3)

I’ve always loved the Rai story – coming from a non-privileged background to join the elite golf scene – but as much as I’d like to see him maintain his hot start, I’m not seeing it happen. This is mainly because his five-under 65 came while ranking just 40th in Strokes Gained: Putting after he ranked 152nd in the metric last season. Generally speaking, it will take lights out putting on the weekend to win here – and he has to survive Friday afternoon winds to get there first. While Davis has shown he can step up and win, and perhaps have a week outside his usual statistical self, I am still burned knowing Rai was a top-45 scoring average guy in rounds 1, 2 and 3 last season… but 128th in Round 4s.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.