Draws & Fades: Look for a major big name to emerge from crowded Sentry leaderboard

After two days of all gas and no breaks to begin the 2024 PGA TOUR season in Hawaii, the field at The Sentry finally hit a yellow light.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua did not give away rounds of 7-under 66 on a whim, as it seemed to during the first two rounds of the season opener amid calm conditions in Maui. And while the course didn’t change overnight, the scoring certainly slowed – notably, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, whose 2-under 71 turned a one-shot lead into a three-shot deficit.

Now it’s Chris Kirk that the field of 59 is chasing, as the veteran reached 21 under after one of those aforementioned rounds of 66. Kirk is the betting favorite heading into the final round, but things have tightened considerably. Akshay Bhatia trails by a shot, but there are nine players (including Scheffler) still within three of the lead.

Updated odds to win The Sentry (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+360: Chris Kirk
+550: Xander Schauffele
+600: Scottie Scheffler
+650: Jordan Spieth
+800: Akshay Bhatia
+1100: Byeong-Hun An
+1800: Jason Day
+2000: Sahith Theegala
+2200: Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay

While Kapalua has often been a place where driving distance proves paramount, Kirk has built a lead off his short game. Kirk was 45th out of 59 in SG: Off-the-Tee Saturday, but was second in Putts per GIR and fifth in SG: Around the Green while rolling in eight birdies.

Although the tournament scoring record is no longer in jeopardy, it will still take a score approaching (or eclipsing) 25 under to take home the trophy on Sunday. So with that in mind, here’s a look at the players I’m looking to back in live markets and which prices might be a shade too short:

Draws

Scottie Scheffler (+600): Time to buy the dip. Scheffler had a terrible day on the greens Saturday, ranking 51st out of 59 in SG: Putting while losing more than two shots on the greens. It was notably worse than his putting efforts through the first two rounds, when he built a one-shot lead. But now his price is higher than his pre-tournament number of +550. Are his winning chances really worse than they would have been with 72 holes ahead of him? I felt his opener was too short, but now this feels like a good number to get in with the best ball-striker in the world on a course where he was on cruise control just yesterday. A three-shot deficit could be erased in the blink of an eye with Scheffler’s acumen.

Jordan Spieth (+650): Unlike Scheffler, Spieth has not had to worry about the putter this week. It’s been the most consistent aspect of his game while the other pieces have been a bit more spotty. But now he’s in the thick of it, primed for a shootout on a course where he won with a 30-under total eight years ago. There’s also a bit of soft science in play with Spieth: While most of the field won last year en route to earning a spot in Maui, Spieth is winless since April 2022. There’s meaning to chasing that feeling – a pursuit that everyone else on the leaderboard shares, but one that Spieth has enjoyed more than many in the past. If the putter continues to perform as it has through 54 holes, Spieth will have a chance at another Sentry title.

Fades

Xander Schauffele (+550): Schauffele enters the final round tied for third with Spieth, two shots behind Kirk. The fact that he’s priced ahead of the three-time major champion speaks to a lot of the handicap around Schauffele in an event like this: That he’s a limited-field specialist, a player that does most of his damage in no-cut events. But that bias is baked into the price here. Schauffele has barely broken a sweat this week, ranking second in SG: Off-the-Tee, but I think there are too many capable players in the mix to grab any stock on Schauffele at this price – despite his win here in 2019.

Akshay Bhatia (+800): Bhatia made a notable Saturday move, holding a share of the lead until Kirk’s birdie on the final hole, but this feels like an awfully big spot for a rising player who punched his ticket to Maui by winning the Barracuda Championship. Bhatia leads the field in SG: Putting and was second in the third round while circling seven birdies in his first 15 holes. It feels like an element that could be tougher to sustain under the heat of the final grouping – and the oddsmakers are tipping their hand a bit by slotting the player in solo second behind three other stars who will tee off behind him on the leaderboard.

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