Draws & Fades: Drive for show, putt for dough at The Sentry

The birdies were flowing in Maui during the opening round of The Sentry at Kapalua’s Plantation Course signaling what we expected pre-tournament: Go low or go home.

While there were countless drives of more than 400 yards,the real stat that matters at Kapalua is putting as 14 of the last 20 winners finishing inside the top three for Strokes Gained: Putting.

So as we look forward to the final three rounds, we need to find players we think can continue to go low and can ride a hot flat stick.

Collin Morikawa set the tone in the opening group of the day, putting together an 8-under 65 as he looks to atone for his Sunday collapse a year ago, holding the clubhouse lead for most of the day.

Camilo Villegas matched Morikawa in the early wave, as did Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im and Jason Day in the afternoon. But it was Sahith Theegala who stole the show in the afternoon sea breezes.

Theegala shot a very tidy 9-under 64 to take the top spot alone.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, plus close friends Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, and Emiliano Grillo share seventh place following rounds of 66. A total of 23 players are within four shots of the lead.

Here are the updated odds after the opening round at Kapalua:

+500: Scottie Scheffler (-7, T7)
+500: Viktor Hovland (-8, T2)
+600: Collin Morikawa (-8, T2)
+1000: Xander Schauffele (-7, T7)
+1000: Patrick Cantlay (-7, T7)
+1100: Sahith Theegala (-9, 1st)
+1200: Sungjae Im (-8, T2)
+1200: Jordan Spieth (-7, T7)
+1600: Max Homa (-6, T12)
+1600: Jason Day (-7, T7)

With the low scores on offer, this tournament is still there for the taking. Here’s who I expect to make a charge, and who I feel might slip. There is value taking some higher odds at this stage.

DRAWS

Xander Schauffele (+1000)

Given Schauffele, the 2019 champion, was my pre-tournament pick to win it all, I’m not about to jump ship after a very respectable opening 66. Last season Schauffele ranked fifth on the PGA TOUR in SG: Putting, but on Thursday he was a little below his usual standards, ranking 25th in the field. I’m expecting he’ll improve on the putting surfaces going forward and given he ranked first in SG: Off-the-Tee, I like what I’m seeing.

“It was solid. Been playing a lot of golf for the last couple of months, so it's nice to see some putts go in,” Schauffele said.

Schauffele has a runner-up and a T5 on his resume at Kapalua to go with his victory.

Sungjae Im (+1200)

Call this one more of a feeling, but Sungjae Im looked very much like a potential silent assassin this week. With two previous top 10s at Kapalua, Im carded his third career 65 on the course to improve his already impressive scoring average on the island.

Im ranked fourth in SG: Putting on Thursday, a standard he will need to continue to remain in the mix. With improvement possible off the tee and into the green the South Korean provides a little value on the odds board.

FADES

Scottie Scheffler (+500)

As Scheffler lined up his final birdie putt of the round on Thursday, I decided I’d call it a circuit breaker. Make and I might be convinced his putting will hold up this week; miss and I might feel differently.

As his 9-footer lipped out, it was enough for me to think there might just be too many great competitors around him who might make more of those.

Now let’s be fair – he ranked 27th in SG: Putting on the round, gaining +0.311 on the field. If he maintains those sorts of numbers this season, he will win plenty of times. And I do think he can contend over the next three days. But the short price, similar to what he began with, is still too short for me to hammer at this time. I’ll risk waiting one more round at least.