Draws and Fades: Luke List and Cameron Young remain outright options in Cabo

Low scores were promised and low scores were delivered in the opening round of the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamonte, the first Tiger Woods-designed course to host the PGA TOUR.

While the big hitters were given the license to bomb away as advertised thanks to the vast fairways, it was a wily veteran who ranks 170th in driving distance who took the early spotlight.

Australian Cameron Percy opened with a 10-under 62 to pace the field, two ahead of Camilo Villegas, Nate Lashley, Tano Goya and Michael Kim and three clear of Cameron Young, Matt Kuchar, Matti Schmid, Justin Lower, Kramer Hickok and Jeffrey Kang (through 17 holes).

It was the lowest score to par in the 49-year-old journeyman’s career as he chases his first victory just a month or so before he planned to head to PGA TOUR Champions Q-School.

Without the benefit of full ShotLink stats this week from Cabo San Lucas it can be a little tougher to get a true feel for who is lurking in the shadows waiting to pounce over the final three rounds; but if you look hard enough some clues can be found.

Here are updated odds from BetMGM ahead of the second round and the players who I believe will be in the mix going forward.

+500: Cameron Young -7, T6
+1200: Ludvig Åberg -4, T27
+1400: Michael Kim -8, T2
+1600: Beau Hossler -6, T12
+1800: Cameron Percy -10, 1st
+1800: Stephan Jaeger -6, T12
+2000: Luke List -6, T12
+2000: Matt Kuchar -7, T6
+2000: Nate Lashley -8, T2

DRAWS

Cameron Young (+500 to win BetMGM)

Given I plumped for Young in my pre-tournament column I’m not about to jump off now. Despite not playing since his T15 finish at the BMW Championship in August, the 2022 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year showed why turning up to a course that suits his game was a good idea with a bogey-free 65.

He has six TOUR runner-up results but is in position to go one better this week, leaning on the fact he’s fifth on TOUR in Driving Distance (second if you count all drives) and eighth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.

“I think for a while I was all out, I didn't have much patience left,” Young said. “I think I've kind of come to terms with the fact that I've played plenty of golf that's worthy of winning a golf tournament out here.

“Obviously it hasn't worked out that way yet,” he continued, “but I think I've played plenty of good golf and I fully believe that that golf can win a tournament out here. So, I've let go of it a little bit and I'm much more focused on trying to get better as much as I can.”

You could hold off while the morning wave plays before live betting Young prior to his afternoon start if you are looking for a little more value.

Luke List (+2000 to win BetMGM)

Just like Young, List was a pre-tournament pick of mine, and in his case, you get juicier odds as he is four back from the lead. List has all the confidence in the world after his recent win at the Sanderson Farms Championship and is ninth on TOUR for SG: Off-the-Tee and is fourth in Driving Distance (all drives). I am still a believer that distance can win the day – as long as players continue to putt half decent.

The Woods design has shown it can bite if players miss the correct area of the large greens on approach and those with shorter clubs can mitigate the chances of these issues.

Cameron Percy (+1800 to win, +150 Top 10 via DraftKings)

I might be the only person on the planet prepared to go to bat for the first-round leader to stay in contention but please hear me out: While it is true Percy is 49 and coming off his best ever round on TOUR and as such appears an obvious fade… I think he has at least one more good round in him… and if he connects, then these odds become decent.

I would have liked the veteran Aussie’s odds to be closer to +3000 given his best ever result is a T2 from 2010 but don’t forget he’s a proven performer on the Paspalum grass and he’s going out in the first group Friday morning with perfect conditions and greens.

The +150 offered for a Top 10 from DraftKings looks good to me given he has T7 results on Paspalum in the 2021 and 2022 Puerto Rico Opens and was T8 (2020) and T4 (2022) in recent times at the Corales Puntacana Championship.

FADES

Ludvig Åberg (+1200 to win at BetMGM)

I may have sat out on a limb and almost got burned fading this young star ahead of the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas but I’m going to do it again.

The Swede’s odds are just way too short for someone six shots back in a shootout, especially when you consider a few of his birdies on Thursday came from distance. Åberg was just one for three scrambling in round one and mistakes this week will be more costly than usual.

This guy will win on TOUR soon, just not this week.