Inexperience reigns supreme with one round to go at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

Yes, the three players within a shot of the lead are all established PGA TOUR pros. But they have also combined to win the same number of TOUR events as the average person reading this column. Sunday that will likely change, but it’s an important factor to take into consideration as we look to determine where the betting value lies with 18 holes remaining in Japan.

Justin Suh is the new man to beat, as a third-round 67 moved him to 9 under and gave him a 54-hole lead for the first time in his TOUR career. He’s one clear of both Eric Cole and Beau Hossler, with a shark in the form of Collin Morikawa lurking just two shots back.

Updated odds to win ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+260: Justin Suh (-9)

+300: Eric Cole (-8)

+333: Beau Hossler (-8)

+400: Collin Morikawa (-7)

+1400: Emiliano Grillo (-6)

+2800: Satoshi Kodaira (-6)

+3500: Kurt Kitayama (-5)

+4000: Cam Davis (-4)

Suh was the Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year in 2022, but he hasn’t cracked the top 10 on TOUR since THE PLAYERS back in March. He now boasts 11 straight subpar rounds, dating back to the Fortinet Championship, and he’s topping the leaderboard at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club on the heels of a hot putter as he leads the field in Putts per GIR.

Cole was a draw for me after the opening round, and I remain bullish on his chances – even though, like Suh, he’s doing most of the heavy lifting on the greens (T25 in Greens in Regulation but second in Putts per GIR).

The weather that was such a factor in the second round should calm down for the finale, with temps in the mid-60s and relatively calm winds. The leaderboard has also thinned a bit, with only the top seven players teeing off within four shots of Suh while the pack at 4 under or worse likely need some significant stumbles from the leaders.

Here’s a look at the players I’m looking to back heading into the final round, as well as one whose odds remain too short:

Draws

Collin Morikawa (+400)

This is an exercise in price philosophy, as in theory there should be a price at which you would draw (and fade) every player in the field. I had Morikawa listed as a fade after the opening round – when his price was shorter than this (+280) even though there were 54 holes remaining and he had five players within one shot of his lead. Now the pack has thinned significantly, and even though he’s two shots behind Suh I like his position (and price) much better this time around.

Morikawa is by far the most decorated player in the final two twosomes, and he ended his third round in a flourish: 3 over through his first four holes, he birdied eight of his last 13 holes including five of his last six to rally for a 4-under 66. His chances for a first PGA TOUR win since the 2021 Open are rekindled, and he has a strong statistical combo of T7 in GIR and fifth in Putts per GIR. I like Morikawa’s situation better today than after the opening round, and I like his price even more.

Satoshi Kodaira (+2800)

If you’re looking for a high-priced flier for the overnight action, I’d look to Kodaira who is currently the Japanese player in best position at 6 under, three shots behind Suh. He has a TOUR win to his credit, having captured the 2018 RBC Heritage, and he’s leading the field in Greens in Regulation through 54 holes while hitting 41 of 54 despite tiny targets and blustery conditions in the second round. Kodaira hasn’t gone better than 3-under 67 yet this week, and he’ll likely need to do so in order to contend – but his iron game should give him plenty of birdie opportunities on Sunday.

Fade

Beau Hossler (+333)

There’s an overwhelming likelihood that the winner will come from the top four players, but of that group I have the least confidence in Hossler and join my colleague Brady Kannon in fading him. The former Texas product held the lead at the halfway point after shooting a 65 in the gusty second round that he himself called “incredible.” He struggled through three bogeys in a four-hole stretch in the middle of his third round but still notched his 18th straight subpar round to stay within a shot of Suh.

Still, I have concerns about Hossler getting it done in the crucible of the final round. He already entered the week at No. 51 in the FedExCup Fall standings, meaning that he’s basically assured of starts in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational. The only way he can further improve his status is with a watershed win, and that will be the entirety of his focus – which can bring with it a new variant of pressure.

Hossler has been in the mix before, notably losing a playoff at the 2018 Houston Open, and he and Wyndham Clark failed to convert a 54-hole lead at this year’s Zurich Classic. All of the stats show that Hossler is ready for a breakthrough, especially in a week where his iron play is above water – but I have concerns about the intangibles and how well he’ll be able to handle the situation coming down the stretch, especially if a player of Morikawa’s caliber is in the mix.

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