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Draws and Fades: Gusty winds transform ZOZO odds – and create opportunity for the defending champ

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Draws and Fades

Draws and Fades: Gusty winds transform ZOZO odds – and create opportunity for the defending champ


    Written by Brady Kannon @lasvegasgolfer

    Friday was an especially windy day at Narashino Country Club, and Round 2 of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP saw nearly the entire field struggle because of it. Sixty of the 77 players in the field shots rounds over par. In winds that were blowing steadily around 25+ MPH, it was Texas product Beau Hossler who shot the low round of the day – a 5-under 65 that he himself called “incredible” and gave him a one-shot lead at the halfway point.

    Right behind Hossler is Justin Suh who was 4 under on the day and sits at 6 under for the championship. Satoshi Kodaira is two shots back, while Emiliano Grillo, Yuki Inamori, Eric Cole and pre-tournament favorite Xander Schauffele round out the top 5 on the leaderboard at 4 under. Another seven players sit four shots back at 3 under, including Cam Davis, Collin Morikawa and defending champion, Keegan Bradley.

    Updated odds to win ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (odds via BetMGM Sportsbook)

    +333: Beau Hossler (-7)

    +400: Xander Schauffele (-4)

    +750: Justin Suh (-6)

    +1000: Collin Morikawa (-3)

    +1100: Eric Cole (-4)

    +1400: Cam Davis (-3), Keegan Bradley (-3)

    +1600: Emiliano Grillo (-4)

    +2000: Sungjae Im (-2)

    After being beaten up my Mother Nature on Friday, players can dust themselves off and welcome in a weekend that is calling for winds in the 5-10 MPH neighborhood. This is a no-cut event, so everyone will be back in action for the remainder of the tournament – but it is tough to gauge what will happen next. With two different sets of conditions through the first two days, it makes our job difficult in trying to figure out how players will respond going forward.

    Hossler has gotten it done with driving accuracy, hitting greens in regulation, and he ranks fourth in the field for Putts Per GIR. Nearly every player toward the top of the leaderboard has adhered to a similar formula. Prior to the tournament's beginning, I felt Greens in Regulation would be an important prerequisite for success. Scrambling too as one will need to be able to get up-and-down when missing these smaller greens. With the winds expected to subside, I believe players will be able to get away with less accuracy off the tee but solid approach play and a sharp short game are going to remain intact as areas needed to contend for this title.

    Here's a look at the players I’m looking to back at the halfway point, and one whose price might be a little too short:

    Draws

    Keegan Bradley (+1400)


    Keegan Bradley makes bounce-back birdie on No. 18 at ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP


    It is tough to win in back-to-back years and I'm not saying Bradley will successfully defend his title, but I like the way he is playing. I believe he is a good fit for this golf course, and I do think he is in position to contend at 3 under, just four shots off the lead with two rounds still to go. Bradley's signature has always been driving the golf ball and ball-striking. He happens to be putting well lately, too. Through two rounds, he is 17th in this field for Driving Accuracy and is fifth for Greens in Regulation. He also managed to escape Friday's winds with an even-par round of 70 after shooting a 67 on Thursday. Does he have anything extra up his sleeve here, after not being selected for the Ryder Cup team? Maybe, but if the ball-striking and putting remain steady, Bradley could be just one really low round away from finding himself atop the leaderboard once again in Japan.

    Sungjae Im (+2000)

    Im is five shots back at 2 under for the championship. He shot a very respectable 1-over par 71 on Friday that included a double bogey on No. 4. After two rounds, Im is fourth in this field for Driving Accuracy, 10th for Greens in Regulation, and ninth in Putts per GIR. If those type of numbers continue, I don't know how he is not in the mix for the win. This is Im's first return to action on TOUR since August where he closed with two top-10 finishes in his final three starts. His game has very few weaknesses, as he truly does everything well. I don't believe the price is unfair at +2000 and I also feel it says something when the only other player currently at 2 under for the championship, Zac Blair, is being listed at +12500. We're not the only ones who know this guy may not be done yet.

    Fade

    Beau Hossler (+333)


    Beau Hossler’s Round 2 highlights from ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP


    It actually isn't a bad price on the 36-hole leader, but I have a hard time believing Hossler isn't due for some regression after a truly remarkable round on Friday. He made seven birdies in Round 2. His only two bogeys came on a couple of the course's most difficult holes. He also arrives in fine form, having finished 28th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and seventh at the Shriners Children's Open last week. But it is the iron game that worries me. Hossler is 152nd on TOUR in SG: Approach, and over the last 36 rounds he was 49th in this field in the same category coming in. With some big names lurking on this leaderboard, it could be a bumpy next couple of rounds for Hossler as he tries to pin down his first-ever win on TOUR.

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