Whenever a limited field convenes on the PGA TOUR, you run the risk of having a rabbit break free from the pack on the opening day. A three-shot lead after one round is more feasible in a 78-man field than, say, one with 132 or 144 players.

But that’s not the case this week in Japan, where Collin Morikawa edged ahead at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP but still has a sizable chase pack close behind. Five different players sit within one shot of Morikawa’s lead, as the two-time major champ opened with a 6-under 64 at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, while a total of 16 players are within three shots of the early mark. That’s more than 20 percent of the field, and it means that in-tournament buys should not be limited to the top of the leaderboard as we head toward the second round outside Tokyo with Morikawa now a clear betting favorite.

Updated odds to win ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (via BetMGM)

+280: Morikawa (-6)

+600: Xander Schauffele (-3)

+1000: Eric Cole (-5)

+1400: Emiliano Grillo (-5), Nicolai Højgaard (-5), Sungjae Im (-3)

+1600: Cam Davis (-3), Sahith Theegala (-3)

+1800: Keegan Bradley (-3)

+2800: Min Woo Lee (-1)

+4000: Hideki Matsuyama (-1)

Morikawa took advantage of soft conditions, finding 14 of 18 greens in regulation without dropping a shot, and it would shock no one in the field (or among the handicapping community) to see him lift his first trophy since The Open Championship in 2021. But half the field broke par in the opening round, and even with firmer conditions expected as the week progresses, it’s likely the red figures will persist at a course where the average winning score in three previous editions has been better than 16 under.

So ahead of the second round, here’s a look at the players that present some betting value – and which prices may be too short with 54 holes still to play (odds via BetMGM):

Draws

Eric Cole (+1000)

You have to go back to the opening round of the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields to find the last time that Cole signed for an over-par round on TOUR. His sub-par run has now reached 16 rounds in a row, including a closing 62 Sunday in Las Vegas and a 65 in Japan that featured a run of five birdies in eight holes.

Cole is in the midst of an incredible rookie season given his arduous path to reach the TOUR, and he nearly got into the winner’s circle at The Honda Classic before losing to Chris Kirk in a playoff. He’s been more than steady since, ranking inside the top 20 on TOUR this season in Stroke Gained: Putting and SG: Approach. His weak spot tends to be off the tee, but he managed Thursday’s score despite hitting only seven of 13 fairways. If Cole can minimize the price he pays for errant drives, as he did in the opening round, he’ll absolutely keep his foot on the gas with iron and putter in hand – which will land him in the mix come Sunday.

Sahith Theegala (+1600)

It’s hard to quantify momentum, but Theegala surely has it after breaking through for his maiden TOUR victory last month at the Fortinet Championship. He’s no longer having to answer questions about when he’ll get his hands on the trophy, and while his spot among the TOUR’s elite wasn’t exactly in question before that, he’s still retaining a bit of pep in his step after conquering the field in wine country.

It’s a freedom that allows him to turn a pedestrian round in Japan, where he was Even standing on the 16th tee, into one upon which he can build. Theegala birdied each of the last three holes at Narashino CC, racing up the leaderboard to within three shots of Morikawa. It’s the type of finish that can bleed into the next day (in a good way) and potentially set up the former Pepperdine standout for even more success. There are plenty of examples of players who turn a watershed win into two, three or more in short order – and Theegala certainly has the game to do just that after finding something from nothing with his opener in Japan.

Mikumu Horikawa (+15000)

Look. Is he going to fend off a field filled with top PGA TOUR performers? Probably not. But should oddsmakers essentially write him off even though he sits just one shot off the lead? Same answer.

Horikawa is ranked No. 267 in the world and plays primarily on the Japan Golf Tour, but he finished T3 at last week’s Japan Open and promptly spun an opening 65 that featured six birdies against one bogey. He’s among the shortest hitters in the field, averaging just 282 yards on measured drives Thursday to rank 76th out of 78, but he missed only three greens in regulation and will have a nation behind him should he remain in the mix heading into the weekend. Japanese fans celebrated Hideki Matsuyama cruising to victory here two years ago and would love nothing more than to have another native son etch his name on the trophy. Horikawa will likely regress to the mean over the next round or two, but given the limited field and opening-round scoring, the potential winners are likely those already under par. In that small pool, I’m not sure his price should be triple digits.

Fades

Collin Morikawa (+280)

It’s still somewhat hard to believe that Morikawa hasn’t gotten back into the winner’s circle since Royal St. George’s. A ball-striker of his caliber usually finds spots with regularity where the putter is warm enough to support pinpoint approach play – the likes of which he displayed this summer in Detroit before losing in a playoff to Rickie Fowler.

So it would come as no surprise to see him continue his solid iron game this week, and he’ll likely factor over the weekend. But the caliber of players within striking distance can’t be discounted, and this is still a short number from Morikawa’s +1000 opener with so much golf still to play.

Morikawa has been solid since that playoff loss in Detroit, highlighted by a T4 finish at the TOUR Championship, but he has played sparingly in recent weeks outside of the Ryder Cup. It’s a situation that presents a few too many variables for me to look to get in at this price – even if a Morikawa victory come Sunday would shock exactly no one.

Nicolai Højgaard (+1400)

We’ve seen it happen before, where a potential breakout player bursts through for a victory to ensure long-term status. It happened just this year at places like Barracuda (Akshay Bhatia) and Barbasol (Vincent Norrman), or even going back to last year with Tom Kim. Could Højgaard be the latest to join that list, as his recent Ryder Cup teammate Ludvig Åberg nearly did at the Sanderson Farms? Surely, but it’s not a result I’m banking on.

Højgaard was scrambling for most of the day Thursday, hitting just 11 of 18 greens in regulation. Should that trend continue, he simply won’t have enough birdie opportunities to keep pace. Additionally, he faces the game within the game as this likely represents his last start of the TOUR season – and last opportunity to solidify 2024 status via non-member FedExCup points. The Dane is expected to finish out the year on the DP World Tour, so he benefits greatly from a strong finish this week even if he falls short of a win in Japan. It’s an additional storyline to keep in mind over the weekend, given that a top-5 finish for Højgaard could in itself be viewed as a win as he looks to next year.

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