Draws and Fades: Ben Griffin a worthy favorite on the cusp of maiden win in Mississippi

Ben Griffin did not seem troubled by the low scores going on around him on Saturday at Sanderson Farms Championship. In fact, he went out and fired a 6-under 66 and sits at 20 under par through three rounds, three shots clear of Carl Yuan. Griffin, who has yet to win in his rookie season on the PGA TOUR, has put himself in fantastic position to do that on Sunday. But a victory would also throw Griffin’s name in the hat for Arnold Palmer Award (Rookie of the Year) consideration and get him into the top 50 in FedExCup points – which would allow him to play in two signature events in 2024.

Those will be chasing him include Yuan (-17) and a golf swing that will make you rethink your own motion. Scott Stallings, Henrik Norlander and Luke List are all 16 under and will need another very low round to catch Griffin. Cameron Champ (-15) and Ludvig Åberg (-14) both know a thing or two about driving the ball long and going low.

Here is where oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook have priced things heading into the final round in Mississippi:

-175: Ben Griffin
+800: Carl Yuan
+1000: Luke List
+1100: Scott Stallings
+1600: Henrik Norlander
+2000: Cameron Champ, Ludvig Åberg

Between the two very interesting golf swings of Griffin and Yuan in the final pairing, I hope it is not viewers’ first time watching golf tomorrow. Nonetheless, based on how things have gone over the last three days, low scores seem inevitable on Sunday. And while Griffin might get his maiden win, we likely won’t be short on drama along the way.

So here is what I am thinking for this Sunday in Mississippi:

Draws

Ben Griffin (-175)

Now I know, picking the favorite is boring, but Griffin has just been that solid. This price not being in lower is why it is a draw. Griffin by the numbers this week is what a winner here should look like: He's third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting and SG: Tee-to-Green. He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total and Greens in Regulation. Simply put, Griffin is a machine this week in Jackson. With a three-shot lead and the way he's hitting the ball, there's no reason for him to not be holding that trophy tomorrow afternoon despite the nerves he’ll likely feel in quest of win No. 1.

Ludvig Åberg (+2000)

If there is anyone in the field with the firepower to catch Griffin, it is Åberg, even being six shots back. Since becoming an official member of the PGA TOUR, all Åberg has done is play phenomenal golf. Coming into the week as the betting favorite was well-deserved, but it took him a little to get going. After a 6-under 66 on Saturday, he knows a low score is what is needed to scare Griffin. It is no surprise he leads the field in SG: Tee-to-Green this week, but if he wants to have any chance on Sunday, he is going to have to roll in some putts. Don’t put it past him to do just that.

Fades

Carl Yuan (+800)

Is it still considered a fade when the player has +800 odds heading into the final round? Not necessarily. However, this is more of a warning for those looking for someone to take a flyer on or those in top-five or top-10 markets. Yuan has played some really good golf this week, as he is in the middle of the FedExCup Fall fight. However, Yuan has yet to shoot a final round in the 60s since the Mexico Open back in April. Yuan also has yet to finish in the top 10 this season and has largely struggled on Sundays. With as many guys as there are breathing down his neck, Yuan is staying off my bet slips on Sunday.

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