Draws & Fades: Look beyond the List for value on wide-open Sanderson leaderboard
5 Min Read
Isn't there a type of spider out there that has 12 eyes or something like that? It would be nice to be that little guy this time of year with the NFL heading into Week 5, college football almost at the halfway point of the season, baseball playoffs underway, NHL about to drop the puck and the PGA TOUR headed into the weekend in Jackson, Mississippi, for the final two rounds of the Sanderson Farms Championship. A glorious time to be a sports fan and a sports bettor for sure.
At the midway mark at The Country Club of Jackson, Ben Griffin leads the way at 14 under. Four players are tied for second place: Harrison Endycott, Luke List, Carl Yuan and Henrik Norlander. Of that group, only List has won before on TOUR.
For the most part, each player at the top of the board has had a different way of going about getting there. Norlander and Endycott appear to be the most consistent across all skill sets considered. List has been getting it done with the putter but has been poor on approach and in accuracy off the tee. Yuan has been solid in most areas but is missing a lot of greens in regulation. Griffin have been good on approach and with the putter but is barely gaining any strokes off the tee. He was on a heater on Friday, firing the low round of the day, a 9-under par 63.
Updated odds to win Sanderson Farms Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)
+250: Ben Griffin
+600: Luke List
+1400: Carl Yuan, Henrik Norlander
+1600: Chesson Hadley
+1800: Ludvig Åberg, Troy Merritt
+2000: Harrison Endycott
+2200: Beau Hossler, Zecheng Dou
+3000: Harry Higgs, Peter Kuest
The weather forecast is calling for rain overnight Friday in the Jackson area. Through two rounds, scoring is already especially low with the cut line falling at 5-under par. A rain-softened golf course could provide more of the same for the next two days. Winds are supposed to be very light on Sunday but in the neighborhood of 10-15 MPH on Saturday.
As it stands, the Sanderson Farms leaderboard reminds me of a few weeks ago in Napa where we had so many players bunched, not too far off the lead, at the Fortinet Championship. At the end of play on Friday in Napa, 25 players sat inside the top 20, with six shots back of the lead being the widest margin separating any player from the leader - and only four shots back of the four players tied for second. It's another logjam indeed and with the conditions looking like birdies will be readily available, it ought to be a wild final stretch in Jackson.
Here's a look at the players that have my attention at the halfway point, with odds via BetMGM:
Draws
Carl Yuan (+1400)
Carl Yuan holes putt for birdie at Sanderson Farms
I almost used Henrik Norlander here as a "Draw," but I believe that Yuan actually has a stronger chance to capture the victory. Over the last 24 rounds prior to this event, he ranked in the top 25% in this field for Hole Proximity from 100-150 yards. Despite being one of the better players in the field in that regard, through two rounds he is gaining less than a stroke on the field on approach and is only hitting 69% of the greens in regulation. He is a big hitter and this part of his game has held up. Given that his short-iron play is a strength as well, I believe we will see him improve in this area over the weekend - and that will keep him in position to win the Sanderson Farms.
Harrison Endycott (+2000)
Harrison Endycott sinks 33-foot birdie putt at Sanderson Farms
This is an awfully nice price for somebody that was tied for the lead for quite a while before Griffin played his last five holes in 4 under. Driving Accuracy and Hole Proximity from 100-150 yards are Endycott's strengths. Through two days, he's been excellent on approach and very solid on and around the greens. Off the tee is where he is losing strokes. I expect his accuracy will correct itself and that should allow him to continue to contend. He is ranked No. 327 in the OWGR, so being introduced to the spotlight worries me a little bit - but he's won before on the Korn Ferry Tour and Endycott is also currently 129th in the FedExCup points standings. With the need to get to 125 or better in order to remain fully exempt on TOUR in 2024, so the motivation is definitely there.
Fade
Luke List (+600)
Luke List cards birdie at Sanderson Farms
I see List as being the worst value of the players at or near the top - as far as what his true chances of winning are in comparison to the price being offered. I really believe he should be north of +1200, more than twice the current number. His putter has been carrying him and oddly enough, List is historically not a good putter. He's gaining nearly 4.5 strokes on the field putting through the first two rounds. Coming into this week, List was ranked 159th in the OWGR and was 182nd in Strokes Gained: Putting on TOUR. He's also losing strokes to the field on approach. This is not a good combination and I have a feeling he'll cool off over the weekend. This combined with the expensive price to pay, puts Luke on the fade "List" for me.
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