Brian Harman still undervalued, even after sharing the first-round lead

The first round of the BMW Championship proved two points about the FedExCup Playoffs. Some things can go exactly the way you expect them to, and others can throw you for a complete loop.

Rory McIlroy entered the week as the co-betting favorite at +700, according to BetMGM. So many people were picking him. He finished the first round at Olympia Fields tied for the lead after shooting a five-under 65. Good luck finding a worthwhile betting number for Rory this week. His odds are down to +333.

Brian Harman joins Rory in the lead, showing no signs of slowing down in only his second event since winning the Open Championship. People enjoy riding the hot hand and Harman is proving that right so far.

Then there’s the unpredictable. At TPC Southwind last week Matt Fitzpatrick finished 4 over par and tied for last place. Thursday at Olympia Fields Fitzpatrick shot 66 and is tied for third at 4 under with five other players, including Scottie Scheffler.

Given the length of the North Course and its mammoth personality, the big takeaway in many betting circles was to pick the “bombers” and players who gain a lot of strokes off the tee. With a steady dose of rain the last few days in the Chicago area, picking long hitters seemed like the best bet.

Outside of McIlroy, that has not necessarily been the case. Fitzpatrick is 55th in Driving Distance this season and Harman is all the way down at 145th. The key to success for both players in round one was not with their driver, but with their irons and putter. Fitzpatrick was second in SG: Approaching-the-Green and Harman was fifth. Fitzpatrick was also third in SG: Putting.

With three rounds to go I’m not saying the long hitters won’t have an advantage, but we should temper our expectation on length off the tee being king.

Updated odds to win the BMW Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+333: Rory McIlroy (-5)

+400: Scottie Scheffler (-4)

+1200: Jon Rahm (-2)

+1400: Rickie Fowler (-4)

+1600: Brian Harman (-5), Wyndham Clark (-4), Patrick Cantlay (-2)

+2200: Cameron Young (-3), Collin Morikawa (-3)

Olympia Field has everything you want in a FedExCup Playoff course, with its major championship feel. So far, the diverse leaderboard reflects that. Here are the players I’m predicting to make a move in either direction the next three rounds.

Draws

Brian Harman (-5, +1600)

The leader of the golf tournament is +1600 and he just won the Open Championship. That’s how undervalued Brian Harman is right now. And rust isn’t an excuse for why he might not do well the next three rounds. His one event after his first major win was last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He played his last three rounds in seven under par after an opening “rusty” 71. Harman is the quintessential major championship player because of his solid all-around play. The only place you won’t see him gaining strokes is around the greens, and he’s basically average in that (-0.005).

His play in the first round Thursday is another example of why his steadiness will keep him in contention come Sunday. Harman was third to last in SG: Off-The-Tee in round one, losing almost an entire stroke to the field. He’s still leading the tournament. How? He’s top 10 in every other main category (SG: Approaching-the-Green, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Putting, SG: Tee-to-Green). He’s in excellent form right now and his weakness (driving) will only improve.

Collin Morikawa (-3, +2200) I’m not just saying this because he was my pre-tournament pick. I really feel like Collin Morikawa is close to becoming the player he was in 2020 and 2021. What do we keep hearing about Olympia Fields this week? It has a U.S. Open and major championship feel. Well, Morikawa has finishes of fourth, fifth and 14th in his last three U.S. Opens. An all-around game is imperative at major championships and Olympia Fields. Morikawa was not flashy in any part of his game on Thursday, but he was solid everywhere. His worst Strokes Gained category was 20th (SG: Around-the-Green).

As the tournament evolves, weakness will continue to expose many players. If Morikawa can continue to stay consistent and hit fairways (he was 10/14 in round one) he will stay on the first page of the leaderboard. At +2200, this is the best time to bet on him.

FADES

Rory McIlroy (-5, +333)

I don’t have a problem being that guy. At +333? Rory hit three fairways Thursday, dead last in the field. That’s the only stat you need to know when thinking about betting him at such an astronomically low number. Despite conditions being softer and the “bombs away” moniker that Olympia Fields is taking on, hitting fairways is going to be a major key the rest of the week.

Rory was second in SG: Around-the-Green Thursday, thanks in large part to a chip-in on 17. He’ll have to keep that up the next three rounds if he doesn’t start hitting a ton of fairways. Two more stats I’m looking at that are red flags; SG: Putting and Scrambling. Rory was a perfect three for three in Scrambling on Thursday. His TOUR average is 76th. On the greens, he gained more than a shot on the field in round one. His season average for SG: Putting is 80th, barely above average. He will need a fantastic short game this week if he is going to win.

Cameron Young (-3, +2200)

I’m not trying to dog on Young two weeks in a row, but we did see him near the top of the leaderboard early at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. He finished T31. After his 67 in round one at TPC Southwind, I chose to fade Young for two reasons. I don’t think we’re seeing his best golf right now, and his big run last season showed he is a streaky player. Young finished in the top three five times in a three month span last summer. He does not have a top five finish in stroke play events in 2023. At a smaller number of +2200, I don’t see the risk being worth it.