Expect a rebound from Russell Henley at Sedgefield

The Wyndham Championship leaderboard is topped by players with near-miss stories from Sedgefield Country Club. Chances are, one of them will get their hands on the Sam Snead Cup on Sunday – it’s just a matter of backing the right option.

Billy Horschel stormed out to grab the lead from Russell Henley Saturday in Greensboro, backing up a second-round 62 with a seven-under 63. Both men have been here before: Horschel lost a shootout in 2020 to Jim Herman, who went 61-63 over the weekend, while Henley held the 54-hole lead in 2021 but couldn’t hold on to make the six-man playoff.

Horschel now shares the lead at 18 under with Lucas Glover, who birdied No. 18 to close out a 62 and also has played well here before, notably having a putt for 59 in 2016. Glover and Horschel now share the lead, each looking to crash the FedExCup Playoff party from long range at the buzzer, while Henley trails by a shot despite capping a 5-under 65 with a birdie at the last.

Updated odds to win Wyndham Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+185: Billy Horschel

+200: Lucas Glover

+225: Russell Henley

+1200: Byeong-Hun An

+4000: Stephan Jaeger

+15000: Adam Svensson

+30000: Brendon Todd, J.T. Poston, Michael Kim

It’s shaping up for an exciting finish to the final regular season event, as the top contenders all know that it will take a score in the low 20s under par to get the job done Sunday. Here’s a look at the players I have my eye on in Greensboro, starting with the man who led after each of the first two rounds:

Draws

Russell Henley (+225 to win)

The birdie on No. 18 is a double-edged sword: it drew him one shot closer to the co-leaders, but it also cut his betting value nearly in half. Henley had drifted out to +350 amid the birdies from Horschel and Glover, but I think he is still in great shape to get the job done. Henley continues to ride a molten-hot putter, sitting second in the field in SG: Putting through 54 holes, and his iron play has been up to snuff: 13th in SG: Approach, 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green. That’s the Russell Henley recipe if I’ve ever seen one, and it’s a mélange that has landed him four TOUR wins where three of them included winning scores of 20 under or lower. Henley doesn’t mind getting into a shootout, and while it felt like he fell back to the pack Saturday, he still shot a 65 and was quite handy on and around the greens. If your “bad round” is a 65, you’re probably doing something right. Expect more of the same from Henley, who is priced barely behind the co-leaders in another instance where the oddsmakers may be showing their hand in terms of who they believe stacks up the best in a possible three-man race.

Stephan Jaeger (+4000 to win)

What about a little sprinkle on the Korn Ferry Tour’s Mr. 58? No one is doubting Jaeger’s bona fides when it comes to low scores, and he’ll probably need to go deeper than the 6-under 64 he posted Saturday to get into one of the final three pairings. Trailing Horschel and Glover by five shots, it’ll be all gas and no breaks – particularly at the par-5 15th hole, where a final-round eagle could earn him the $1 million top prize in season-long the Aon Risk-Reward Challenge.

Jaeger has yet to win on the PGA TOUR but has been among the short game leaders this week, ranking fourth in SG: Putting, and his 64 Saturday came despite losing -1.46 strokes in approach. If he tightens up the irons and continues to navigate the undulating greens of Sedgefield with success, he just might be able to channel a little of Sepp Straka’s style from the John Deere Classic and make an unexpected Sunday run.

Fade

Lucas Glover (+200 to win)

Glover’s is a great story, as he has once again risen to the occasion with his season on the line. Starting the week No. 112 in points, he could crack the top 50 with a win and qualify for next week’s event at TPC Southwind with ease. But the margins are thin for the former U.S. Open champ, as anything less than a runner-up finish likely sidelines him until the FedExCup Fall.

Glover’s steady ascent seems to have culminated in Greensboro, but I still have questions about whether he can close it out – particularly with the stakes as high as they are, and with questions still lingering about his work on the greens. Glover picked up two strokes with the putter Saturday, and he ranks 11th in SG: Putting for the week. It’s a big key to his summer turnaround. But now, with Horschel and Henley hooping putts at every turn and point projections bouncing around his head, will he be able to keep pace on a track where a short miss could make all the difference? Will he be able to follow Horschel’s footsteps by following up a low round with another? I’m not so sure.

Of the two co-leaders, I think there’s more value on Horschel (despite a slightly shorter price) given his win equity. I still like Henley more than both of them, despite starting the day a shot back, but of the top trio a Glover win would most surprise me. He has mettle to do it, for sure, and is just two years removed from a win at the John Deere – but that birdie on No. 18 dropped his price far too short for my liking.